1. www.idc.com Hrvatski dani Interneta 2002 Rijeka, 12-14 lipnja 2002 Boris Žitnik Country Manager IDC Croatia

2. Agenda IT Market Developments Internet Market Figures About IDC IT Market Developments Internet Market Figures About IDC

3. 10 100 1,000 1970 1980 1990 IT Users (M) 2000 2010 IT Spending ($B) 50 500 5,000 AutomateBack-Office AutomateFront-Office AutomateCustomers The New Era of IT Development

4. September 11 2001 IT industry on the ropes Telecom winter Dot-com crash to global recession

5. September 11 drops 4% off growth Source: IDC 2002 Worldwide IT Spending Growth % Last Year’s Spending Collapse

6. The IT Business Cycle Pattern New technology initiates a new paradigm, creating a speculative bubble … which eventually leads to a new technology … Long term exploitation of the new paradigm begins, with technology and business innovations that work within the constraints of current mega trends … Reality strikes within 5 years, triggering a temporary slowdown

7. The Current Rebound Source: IDC 2002, estimated based on IDC WW Black Book $ Billions Quarterly Spending Quarterly Average Worldwide Estimated Hardware Spending by Quarter

8. Globalization vs. Regional Trends Last decade, starting from the fall of the Berlin Wall, we have been catching the low-hanging fruits of globalization Next decade, we will be dealing with major political and economic discontinuities As a result: 1) Globalization Trends will go through a number of “stop-and-go” 2) We will experience lot more economic conflicts and commercial wars among US, Europe and China Last decade, starting from the fall of the Berlin Wall, we have been catching the low-hanging fruits of globalization Next decade, we will be dealing with major political and economic discontinuities As a result: 1) Globalization Trends will go through a number of “stop-and-go” 2) We will experience lot more economic conflicts and commercial wars among US, Europe and China

9. 3) International Markets will be characterized by the Emergence of fast Regionalization Processes 4) We will experience a new role of geographies and mushrooming of new business opportunities and regional players in Europe 5) Europe will be a lot more attractive Market, because European Companies will be fighting for competitiveness, they’ll need leading technologies and infrastructures to become more efficient 6) Global Product Lines vs. Geographies 3) International Markets will be characterized by the Emergence of fast Regionalization Processes 4) We will experience a new role of geographies and mushrooming of new business opportunities and regional players in Europe 5) Europe will be a lot more attractive Market, because European Companies will be fighting for competitiveness, they’ll need leading technologies and infrastructures to become more efficient 6) Global Product Lines vs. Geographies Globalization vs. Regional Trends

10. Present Market Scenario We come from a very tough year Our perception is that the market has bottomed out in the last quarter of 2001, and that a slow, cautious and progressive recovery is in place WW IT spending 2002…5%;...2003…10% Main positive indicators to support this perception 1) IDC’s Opportunity map 2) CIO magazine Recent Tech Poll 3) Our own sales are catching up We come from a very tough year Our perception is that the market has bottomed out in the last quarter of 2001, and that a slow, cautious and progressive recovery is in place WW IT spending 2002…5%;...2003…10% Main positive indicators to support this perception 1) IDC’s Opportunity map 2) CIO magazine Recent Tech Poll 3) Our own sales are catching up

11. Asp Apps LifeCycle Mngm XML & Virtual DB. Applic. Server System Mngm SW Security SW Web Server SW Businesware Mngt Syst. IT Consulting 0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 100,0% DW/BI ERM CRM eCOMM Apps Outs Internet Services Syst. Integr. SW Supp. Custom Sw. IS Outs. Netw&Dtop Outs Proc. Serv. HW Maint. SCA eLearning Application Integration Doc.& Cont. Mngm. IT Security CAGR 2001-2002 CAGR 01-02 18.2% CAGR 01-02 9.8% CAGR 01-02 33.2% CAGR 01-02 23% App.Develop&Infrastructure SW Mission Critical Applications Internet and xSP Services IT Services Other “Hot Segments” IDC’s Treasure Map

12. Western Europe $307.2 billion (27.9% of WW) Western Europe $307.2 billion (27.9% of WW) CEE $13.1 billion (1.2% of WW) CEE $13.1 billion (1.2% of WW) Total = $1.101 billion Croatia $390 million (2,9% of CEE) Croatia $390 million (2,9% of CEE) IT Spending 2001

13. IT Spending/per capita Izvor: IDC, 2002 IT spending per capita in CEE, 2001 ($)

14. IT spending ($ million) Source: IDC, 2002 IT Spending in Croatia, 1996 - 2003

15. Internet Figures Internet Users eCommerce Internet Users eCommerce

16. 2004 900 Million Source: IDC ICMM V 7.0 2001 500 Million 2001 Internet Users Worldwide 33% buy over the Web $500 billion B2C, 6-fold increase Internet Users – Doubling in Numbers

17. Internet Users (year-end 2001) WW 500,2 Europe 167,4 Western Europe 151,3 CEE 16,1 Croatia 0,5 Internet users (million) Source: IDC, 2002

18. $2.5T $0.1T eBusiness 1.0 eBusiness 2.0 eCommerce Worldwide

19. eCommerce Spending, 2001 ($ billion) Source: IDC, 2002

20. 00 55 1010 1515 2020 2525 2000200020012001200220022003200320042004 (Millions Worldwide) Businesses with Web Sites (Millions Worldwide) Source: IDC ICMM V7.0 All Web Sites Outsourced $36 billion networked infrastructure management services $85 billion Web hosting Building More eBusinesses

21. New Internet Users 2002–2006 New Internet Users 2002–2006 553M Source: IDC Internet Commerce Market Model V 8.1, 2002 New Internet Users 1994–2001 New Internet Users 1994–2001 500M Mobile 94M Mobile 479M Mobile & Wireless: Landscape

22. IDC Hrvatska IDC u Hrvatskoj…1996. / OMNIAconsult IDC Hrvatska …srpanj 2001.

23. Područja djelovanja Priprema godišnjih i kvartalnih reporta (on the shelf produkti) Istraživanja i projekti po narudžbi Consulting IT konferencije Priprema godišnjih i kvartalnih reporta (on the shelf produkti) Istraživanja i projekti po narudžbi Consulting IT konferencije

24. Systems (PCs, Systems & Servers) Communications (Internet Economy, Telecom) Office Equipment (Printers quarterly and annual, MFP, Copiers, Handheld) Software & Services (IT Services, EAS) Other (IT Executive Tracker) Systems (PCs, Systems & Servers) Communications (Internet Economy, Telecom) Office Equipment (Printers quarterly and annual, MFP, Copiers, Handheld) Software & Services (IT Services, EAS) Other (IT Executive Tracker) “On The Shelf” produkti

25. Ostali produkti Usluge Istraživački projekti po narudžbi Inquiry hours Prezentacije IT Konferencije Storage Roadshow, 02.05.2002. Usluge Istraživački projekti po narudžbi Inquiry hours Prezentacije IT Konferencije Storage Roadshow, 02.05.2002.