1. Climate Change Scenarios Development P. GOMBOLUUDEV and P.BATIMA

2. Why we are studying climate change ?  Climate condition and its change are one of the limiting factors for economic development of the country  Last 40 years the ecosystem of Mongolia is clearly changed as result of combination of climate change and human activity  Mongolian ecosystem is very vulnerable and sensitive to the climate change. Because of severe continental climate  The study result gives background understand of the level of potential impacts of climate change on environment and economic sectors  Identify the response measures in human life to adapt under changes in climate system

3. Observed Global Climate Change  CO 2 concentration is increased 280 ppm for period 1750 to 368 ppm in 2000, 31%  Global mean surface is increased by 0.6 0 C, land areas warmed more than oceans  Northern Hemisphere surface temperature is increased over the 20 th century greater than during any other century in last 1000 years  Hot days/Heat index is increased  Frequency and severity of drought is increased by 5-10%over 20 th century Northern Hemisphere  Heavy precipitation events is increased at mid and high northern latitude  Global mean see level is increased by 20 sm since 1900  Snow cover is decreased by 10% since 1960  Growing season is lengthened by 1 to 4 days per decade during 40 years

4. Recent Trends of Global Average Surface Temperature A combination of surface air temperature over land and sea-surface temperature over the ocean. Individual bars show annual values as deviations from 1961-1990 average.

5. Present Climate Feature in Mongolia Climate of Mongolia is harsh continental with sharply defined seasons, high annual and diurnal temperature fluctuations, low rainfall and relatively long duration of sunshine in a year. Average annual temperatures are around 8.5 o C in the Gobi and -7.8 o C in the high mountainous areas. The extreme minimum temperature is -31.1 o C to -52.9 o C in January and the extreme maximum temperature is +28.5 o C to +42.2 o C in July. Annual mean precipitation is 300-400 mm in the mountain regions, and 150-250 mm in the steppe, 100-150 mm in the steppe-desert and 50-100 mm in the Gobi-desert areas. About 85-90 per cent of total precipitation falls in summer Mongolia has on an average 3,000 hours of sunshine annually

6. During the last 60 years Annual air temperature increased an average by 1.66 0 C this increase was greater in the winter (3.61 0 C), and smaller in the spring (1.4-1.5 0 C) Winter warming is more in the high mountain regions, and less in the steppe and Gobi and desert. There is no significant changes in annual precipitation amount. Recent Climate Change Trends in Mongolia

7. Geographical distribution of annual mean temperature change in last 30 years

8. Extreme weather index and its change

9. Winter is getting snowy and summer is getting dry

10. Future Climate Change Scenarios in Mongolia Method of Climate Change Study and Its Impact Study

11. Mongolia 21-st century climate changes under different climate models winter precipitation change intensity is high than summer and summer temperature change intensity is high than winter It is indicating that winter is getting warmer and snowy, and summer is getting hot and dry

12. Simulation of Current Climate, 1961-1990 January July

13. ModelTemperatureObservedSimulationBIASSt. deviationVariation 1.HadCM3Annual mean0.66-0.441.131.321.75 Summer17.0216.220.791.462.14 Winter-17.55-18.420.923.2110.03 2. CGCM3Annual mean0.66-7.067.634.7822.88 Summer17.0212.164.753.3911.55 Winter-17.55-27.069.446.7645.4 3. CSIROAnnual mean0.66-0.861.543.2510.54 Summer17.0219.18-2.163.3311.06 Winter-17.55-18.020.535.2727.27 How accurate is the climate model?

14. Time sliceWinterSummerAnnual Temperature, Celsius 20200.851.991.37 20502.373.532.81 20803.896.354.88 Precipitation, mm 20205.0-5.29.1 20508.215.144.3 208014.213.655.4 Climate Change Scenarios under SRES A2 emission scenarios by HadCM3 Climate Model

15. Geographical Distribution of Temperature Change

16. Geographical Distribution of Precipitation Change

17. 1961-1990 20502080 2020 Annual mean temperature, HadCM3 A2

18. Thank you for your attention