1. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Climate Change: Understanding the Science and Developing Strategies for Action Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Faculty Director, University Honors Program Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Science Center of Iowa 5 March 2007

2. Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

3. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Outline  Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide  Radiative forcing  Simulations of global climate and future climate change  Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest  Four components for addressing climate change Except where noted as personal views or from the ISU Global Change course or the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports

4. CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

5. CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843. Natural cycles Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years

6. IPCC Third Assessment Report

7. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS 2007 380 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

8. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS 2050 550 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

9. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS “Business as Usual” 950 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

10. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS “Business as Usual” 950 ppm ? Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

11. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

12. Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.

13. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

15. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

16. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

17. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963 At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m 2 in 2018

18. NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per decade in arctic sea ice extent.

19. Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration from NASA) ( http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)

20. Source: Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).www.acia.uaf.edu

22. Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (~3 ft) rise in sea level Kennedy Space Center Miami Impact of a 1-m rise in sea level on low-lying areas Source: Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).www.acia.uaf.edu Projected sea-level rise In 21st century: 0.5 to 1.0 m

23. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

24. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

25. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

26. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

27. Natural cycles

28. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural

29. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural Highly Likely Not Nartural

30. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

31. Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688. Sea-surface temperature VV Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI) V

32. Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688. Sea-surface temperature VV Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI) V

33. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

34. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

35. Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

36. The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions

37. Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible

38. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

39. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

41. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment)  Longer frost-free period (high)  Higher average winter temperatures (high)  Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)  More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium)  Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)  More (~10%) precipitation (medium)  More variability of summer precipitation (high) –More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) –Higher episodic streamflow (medium) –Longer periods without rain (medium)  Higher absolute humidity (high)  Stronger storm systems (medium)  Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive

42. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Four-Component Approach for Addressing Climate Change  Mitigation policies: 2050-2100 –Example: reduction in GHG emissions  Adaptation (long-term): 2015-2050 –Example: Developing Iowa’s competitive economic advantage  Adaptation (short-term): 2008-2015 –Example: redefining climate “normals” when needed and scientifically justified  Scenario planning for Iowa’s “Katrina”: 2007-2100 –Example: Multi-year drought, recurrent floods, combination of both; drought and wildfire EST personal view

43. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS If a meteorological variable began departing from its long-term background near or after 1970 it may be related to the radiation imbalance and thereby has a better chance than not of continuing its new trend over the next 5-10 years. Climate Adaptation(Short-Term) EST personal view

44. D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

56. http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/37.htm

57. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Climate Surprises  Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water)  Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

60. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (~3 ft) rise in sea level Kennedy Space Center Miami

62. “Warming Hole”  T max (JJA) ˚C

63. North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program  Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University  Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK  Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada  Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA  Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy  Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA  René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada  Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA  Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA  Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA  Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA  Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research Principal Investigator http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

64. NARCCAP Plan A2 Emissions Scenario GFDLCCSM HADAM3 link to EU programs CGCM3 1960-1990 current 2040-2070 future Provide boundary conditions MM5 Iowa State/ PNNL RegCM3 UC Santa Cruz ICTP CRCM Quebec, Ouranos HADRM3 Hadley Centre RSM Scripps WRF NCAR/ PNNL Reanalyzed climate, 1979-2000

65. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS For More Information  For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse  Contact me directly: gstakle@iastate.edu  Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/  North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/  For this and other climate change presentations see my personal website: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/