1. Exploring management options for more resilient and efficient systems Southern Region Extension Climate Academy (SRECA) September 3-5, 2014 Athens, GA

2. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

3. Source: Gitz and Meybeck, 2012 resilience can be described as being “about coping with uncertainty in all ways” increasing resilience can be achieved by reducing vulnerabilities and increasing adaptive capacity Instead of being vulnerable we should increase the capacity to prevent, cope with risks and recover from shocks Reduce 1 2 3 of systems How we can increase resilience Drought Insect breakout

4. Climate of the Eastern US A. ENSO – El Niño phase Winter Summer El Niño does not run to the calendar year - some events last >> 12months Above average sea surface temperature (SST) across the eastern tropical Pacific High influence on Winter and Spring climate

5. Climate in the Southeast B. La Niña phase of ENSO Below than normal sea surface temp. (SST) across the eastern tropical Pacific Winter Summer

6. - Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI): A monthly quantitative index based on six variables of: sea-level pressure, zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature, surface air temperature, and total cloudiness fraction of the sky. Climate Forecast – ENSO Indices http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

7. Precipitation Anomalies (in) 1996 - 2013 vs. 1950 - 1995 March April May July

8. http://agroclimate.org/tools/climate-risk/ ENSO phase Rainfall Differences Tifton Co. South GA Climate Risk Tool

9. South GA North GA If we know the ENSO impact on climate variables, can we manage the crop based on those differences? What management practices you will advice farmers to adjust/modify? http://agroclimate.org/tools/climate-risk/

10. http://agroclimate.org/tools/County-Yield- Statistics/ AgroClimate Tool

11. The highest yield penalties associated with delayed planting could be expected during the La Niña phase (warmer winter) rather than the El Niño, especially for southern counties. (4 wks later) Tifton, GA http://agroclimate.org/tools/Planting-Date- Planner/

12. Wheat varieties yield of different maturity groups (Early/Late) by ENSO phase North GA Central West GA Under La Niña, early maturity varieties (early heading) had greater yield than late maturity at the Southern locations (Plains, GA) compared with the North (Calhoun, GA). Under El Niño, late maturity varieties had greater yield than Early maturity at the most Northern locations (Calhoun, GA).

13. ENSO phase HF Infestation Differences Yield losses and HF Infestation HF infestation was higher during La Niña than El Niño with increased occurrence closer to the Coast (Plains site). Higher infestation for susceptible varieties (compared to resistant) was observed for La Niña, therefore higher yield losses. Georgia

14. ENSO phase HF Infestation Differences HF infestation was higher during La Niña than El Niño with increased occurrence closer to the Coast (Plains site). Georgia The HFI prediction model was based on: - Temperature and Precipitation of Aug-Sep (T Aug-Sep, P Aug-Sep ) and Oct- Feb (T Oct-Feb, P Oct-Feb ) periods PLUS - Change in wheat area in the preceding year ( Δ WA) HFIP Griffin = 0.012 Δ WA + 0.045PAS – 0.017POF – 5.574TAS + 3.139TOF + 112.3

15. Plains, GA ENSO phase Rainfall & Temperature Differences ENSO phase Rainfall & Temperature Differences http://agroclimate.org/tools/climate-risk/ Plains, GA Climate Risk Tool

16. Adaptation Strategies http:// www.agroclimate.org/seclimate/extension-resources /