1. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 The November 13, 2008 ShakeOut Exercise (GG’08) Threat to Roadway Lifelines: M w 7.8 on the Southern San Andreas Fault Kenneth W. Hudnut, Ph.D. U. S. Geological Survey Leader, So. San Andreas Fault Evaluation (SoSAFE) Project August 24, 2007 Caltrans Seismic Advisory Board Meeting Caltrans District 8 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

2. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 Caltrans SAB report (Dec. 2003) Race to Seismic Safety “Are California’s roadways earthquake-safe?” “Develop and implement actions that foster the rapid, effective, and economic response to and recovery from damaging earthquakes” Recomendation #7: Emergency Response: “Caltrans should maintain its rapid response capability to evaluate, repair and restore…” sections on fault rupture and ‘fling’

3. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 ShakeOut - San Andreas M w 7.8 Courtesy of Rob Graves, URS

4. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 Short periods best from NGA combination Long periods best from physics-based simulation Courtesy of Rob Graves Courtesy of Ned Field and Nitin Gupta

5. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 Long-period structures such as bridges susceptible to distant long-period and sustained shaking Surface faulting where fault crosses freeways and major highways can damage roadway and engineered fills Caltrans is our first major ShakeCast user - Loren Turner Intent is to test ShakeOut scenario through CISN Display as if a real earthquake has occurred, then use ShakeCast to assess and prioritize shaking damage Caltrans has demonstrated commitment to reducing seismic vulnerability and is the best organization to lead monitoring of fault-crossing lifeline infrastructure (others private; data?) Caltrans special considerations

6. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 San Andreas - need to instrument major lifeline infrastructure crossings

7. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 Caltrans freeways (and major highways) fault crossings

8. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 FEMA report series (1991-1992)

9. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 ShakeOut M w 7.8 Surface Offsets SUBJECT TO REVISION (KMD v. 1.1.0; 5/12/07) Lifeline Crossing: Fault Slip (meters) Duration of Disruption (days) Gorman (I-5)0 (landslide - Pyramid) 15 Palmdale (Route 14) 2.610 Cajon Pass (I-15) 4.4 (low end of range) 35 (FEMA, 1991) Whitewater1.75 Indio (I-10)7.310

10. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 Caltrans I-10 at Indio Fault slip of 7.3 meters is expected; significant afterslip

11. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 Caltrans I-10 and Rt. 62 Fault slip on each of 2 strands may be expected

12. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 Cajon Pass lifelines

13. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 Cajon Pass - critical lifeline crossing Currently USGS has no real-time seismic or GPS instrumentation at this location

14. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 Cajon Pass I-15 Fault Crossing

15. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007

16. Lone Juniper Ranch and Frazier Park High School Prototype GPS fault slip sensor Spans the San Andreas fault near Gorman, California Need robust GPS at all key lifeline crossings Desirable to include seismic with GPS

17. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 San Andreas - need to at least instrument major lifeline infrastructure crossings GPS & accelerometer arrays - no funding has yet been identified for an operational system

18. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 Proposal - zipper array for early warning and immediate finite-fault source for San Andreas and San Jacinto fault ‘Big Ones’ IOC - 36 quadrilaterals shown @ 30 km spacing (shown) FOC - 100 quads @ 10 km spacing ($5 M init. + $1 M/yr)

19. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 SoSAFE is under way (SCEC paleoseismology) B4 LiDAR Project completed; data openly available SCEC funds distributed USGS NEHRP RFP deadline & NSF proposal preparations M W 7.8 earthquake scenario has been specified http://urbanearth.usgs.gov/ 3 levels of rupture description detail made available next-generation attenuation relation models done - to be input to HAZUS ground motion simulations in progress Slip at Lifelines Fault Crossings has been specified (v 1.1.0) economic modeling to be conducted workshops with lifeline operators (May & Oct. 2007) Multi-hazard triggered events to be included in the scenario ShakeOut exercise - November 13, 2008 @ 10:00 a.m. - “GG08” http://urbanearth.usgs.gov/

20. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 What can I do to prepare my lifeline? Improve engineering at lifeline crossing points (retrofit and mitigate) to reduce down-time and to avert ecological and environment impacts Stockpile materials on-site that will be needed to make repairs quickly; develop a plan for repairs Instrumentation for automated damage assessment Alaska Pipeline: $3M invested prior, >$100M saved

21. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 Ken Hudnut DOI / U. S. Geological Survey 525 S. Wilson Ave. Pasadena, CA 91106 (626)583-7232 Cell: (626)672-6295 hudnut@usgs.gov