1. RSA 20–year Electricity Generation Policy.
“Focus on Nuclear Power Generation”
19 September 2013

2. Table of Contents Introduction: Context
Context of RSA Electricity Generation Mix Plan.
Long term planning.
Resolving current and future capacity constraints.
Integrated Resource Plan: Process Overview
Demand drive inputs.
Supply Driven inputs.
Overview of the Nuclear Input Assumptions.
Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI).
Public inputs.
Nuclear’s role in the final IRP2010
Conclusion 2 2

3. Context
The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) in the South African context is not the Energy Plan – it is a National Electricity Plan.
It is a subset of the Integrated Energy Plan (IEP).
The IRP is also not a short or medium-term operational plan but a plan that directs the expansion of the electricity supply over the given period. 3 3

4. Context
The Long-term Electricity Planning goal is to ensure sustainable development considering:
Technical constraints
Economic constraints
Social constraints
Externalities
What is its purpose?
In theory, identification of the requisite investments in the electricity sector that maximize the national interest.
In practice - identification of the investments in the electricity sector that allows the country to meet the forecasted demand with the minimum cost to the country. 4 4

5. Context – Why a long-term plan
Electricity Availability is directly correlated with the economic growth (GDP) and social welfare of a nation (especially for developing countries)
Industry, services, communications, airports
Education, health, safety, food..
Anticipation is Essential
Anticipation of the needs: future demand of the customers must be projected.
Anticipation of the supply: facilities must be prepared to supply at the right time with the right amount of energy at the right quality of service and at the right price.
Electricity cannot be effectively stored
Electricity demand must be met instantaneously
Requirement of several years for new supply commissioning
Linked to other infrastructure development 5 5

6. Resolving Capacity constraints Long Term – IRP 2010
Medium Term – National Emergency Response and Business Continuity Plan
The need to replace the old fleet
Restoring the requisite reserve margin
National Emergency Response and Business Continuity Plan
No reserve margin period of high risk power cuts
Country Electricity Plan (IRP2010)
Including Renewable, Gas and Nuclear Power
Data source Eskom 6

7. The IRP also needs to answer the following questions
What are the linkages and dependencies on other resources such as water, primary energy sources, skills, sorbents, transmission infrastructure and land?
What will it cost to meet these needs and how will it be funded? What will be the impact on future electricity prices and will they remain competitive? 7 7

8. The IRP needs to answer the following questions
What will it cost to meet these needs and how will it be funded? What will be the impact on future electricity prices and will they remain competitive?
What is required to implement this plan, what is the level of confidence in achieving this, what are the commitments required and who are these required of? 8 8

9. IRP 2010 - Balancing Competing Objectives
Low Cost
Low Carbon
Security of
Supply
Low Water
GABON
KENYA
BURUNDI
ZAMBIA
MOZAMBIQUE
MALAWI
TANZANIA
ANGOLA
BOTSWANA
DR CONGO
NAMIBIA
ZIMBABWE
SOUTH AFRICA
LESOTHO
SWAZILAND

10. IRP Key Required Outcomes (Per Scenario) Policy, Facts, Information
IRP Process
Inputs
1. Price Cone
2. Security of Supply
4. Diversity of Gx mix
5. Economic benefits
1.1 Gx Price Cone
1.2 RSA ave Price Cone
2.1 Un-served energy
2.2 Reserve margin
4.1 Technology
4.3 Ownership
3. Carbon
IRP
Modelling
4.2 Share
3.1 Emission targets
3.2 LTMS
IRP Key Required Outcomes (Per Scenario)
Policy, Facts, Information
Method
SECRET

11. The Models require the following Minimum Inputs for each scenario
Externalities
Cost of carbon
General Inputs
Discount rate
Cost of unserved energy
Reliability criteria
Demand Inputs
Demand forecast
Supply Inputs
Lifecycle costs of technologies
Load factors for technologies

12. Generic Inputs
In developing an IRP there are many variables which need to be
exogenously determined (inputs). Most important ones are:
Fuel prices projections
Crude oil barrel, ton of Coal, m3 of Natural gas, Nuclear costs,,
Description of the existing generation mix
Capacity, fuel, efficiency, decommissioning date, C02 emissions, fixed cost and variable cost, required reliability, etc
Investment criteria :
Discount rate
Demand projection (s)
Annual peak load in MW & Energy in GWh 12 12

13. Supply Inputs Potential technologies
Coal, Nuclear, Gas (CCGT and OCGT), Renewable technologies (Wind, Solar, Biomass and Geothermal), Hydro and Pumped Storage etc
Plant Costs (Exchange Rate required)
Investment (Total overnight costs, Expense schedule, Lead-times)
Refurbishment
Decommissioning
Fuel
Cost in each year for economic life of plant or price at reference date plus expected escalation during economic life of plant
Fuel energy content (where applicable) and availability (water)
Operation and Maintenance (O&M)
Need to break link between coal and pumped storage – needs to be looked at in conjunction with Renewables

14. Supply Inputs Operation and Maintenance (O&M) Plant Availability Data
Cost in each year for economic life of plant or price at reference date plus expected escalation during economic life of plant
Plant Availability Data
Maintenance (or Planned Outage), Unplanned Outages
Plant Technical Parameters
Plant Economic life, Efficiencies and/or Heat Rate(s), Plant Load factor
Plant Water Usage
The water usage per unit of energy output for each Plant Technology Type
Plant Sorbent Usage
Need to break link between coal and pumped storage – needs to be looked at in conjunction with Renewables

15. Supply Inputs Plant Emissions
The costs of pollution control equipment, waste management and any required health and environmental protection measures
Pollution Control Technologies included in, and the impact thereof on
Plant cost, Plant availability and Plant technical parameters

16. Nuclear Specific Inputs
Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) Report.
The EPRI costs and capacity values were used in the IRP model.
(including lead times of ten years)
Overnight Capital Cost estimate of R26 575/kW.
The EPRI costs do not include decommissioning and waste management costs for the nuclear plant.
The capital costs for nuclear were increased by 40% to accommodate inputs from numerous sources that the EPRI costs under-estimated the capital costs for recent nuclear build experience.
This adjustment also allowed some accounting for decommissioning and waste management elements.
The EPRI report includes the costs for the six unit option which equates to the nuclear fleet.

17. Scenarios generated These are not plans, they are glimpses of extreme futures used to evaluate trade-offs between competing objectives.
Scenarios
Balanced
Scenario
Risk Adjusted
Plan
Policy Adjusted
Plan
Reducing Uncertainty

18. Key IRP Outcomes Price Cone Carbon Impacts and effects
RSA Ave Price Cone
Gx Price Cone
Carbon Impacts and effects
Emission Constrained
Cost of Carbon
Security of Supply
Adequacy
Cost of Unserved Energy (used to estimate the economic impact on customers of planned and unplanned outages)
Generation Mix
Technology

19. Key Policy Areas Nuclear Policy Renewable Energy Policy
Climate Change and Emissions Policy
Imports (Regional Development) Policy
Diversity of energy sources (Mix)
Energy Efficiency Policy/Strategy
Adequacy (Reliability) criteria for generation
Industrial Development Policy

20. IRP 2010 Scenarios Baseline / Reference case
Carbon - emission constrained
Carbon – carbon taxed
Generation diversity
Policy, Risk & Constraint adjusted (IRP 2010 recommended) This scenario includes sufficient detail on issues for immediate policy implementation such as:
Non Eskom generation
Critical decision milestones
Critical actions for the ministries
Inputs to national planning

21. Policy Adjusted IRP – Plans for South Africa’s generation mix
Current Integrated Resource Plan (IRP2010)
Policy Adjusted IRP – Plans for South Africa’s generation mix
Planned New Generation Mix 2030(1)
Time Schedule New Power Generation Building
RTS Capacity
Medupi
Kusile
Ingula
DOE OCGT IPP
Cogeneration, Own
Build
Wind
CSP
Landfill, Hydro
Sere
Decommissioning
Coal (PF, FBC,
Imports, own build)
Gas CCGT
Peak-OCGT
Import Hydro
Solar PV
Nuclear Fleet
Total New and
Committed Build MW
2010
380
260
640
2011
679
130
200
1,009
2012
303
100
300
1,003
2013
101
722
333
1,020 25
2,801
2014
999
500
400
3,021
2015
1,444
(180)
2,564
2016
(90)
1,432
2017
1,446
2,968
2018
723
1,523
2019
250
237
2,733
2020
2,010
2021
(75)
1,212
2022
(1,870)
805
1,143
1,128
2023
(2,280)
1,183
1,600
2,358
2024
(909)
283
800
2,424
2025
(1,520)
1,000
3,835
2026
3,500
2027
2,350
2028
(2,850)
474
690
1,414
2029
(1,128)
2,764
2030
948
2,948
1,463
4,332
4,338
1,332
390
700
125
(10,902)
6,250
2,370
3,910
2,609
8,400
9,600
45,637
New Build Options
Firm commitment necessary now
Firm commitment in IRP 2012

22. RSA Energy Source Geographic Distribution.
Solar
Wind
Gas
Nuclear
Coal

23. Conclusion
Closing Remarks.
Formulation of the Integrate Resource Plan is based on an Input Modelling  Policy Adjustment Output approach.
The starting point is not to exclude any electricity generation technology but rather to assess energy needs of the country and determine how best they can be met.
RSA could position itself as Africa’s nuclear electricity generation technology provider if the localization aspects are fully implemented.

24. Conclusion Current Policy Position (on new additional capacity)
Closing Remarks:
Current Policy Position (on new additional capacity)
Renewable Energy %
Nuclear %
Coal %
Gas %
Import %

25. Thank You