1. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM Key Trends and Laws From Past to Future

2. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM Same Old Story: The IT Adoption Challenge

3. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM IT is Very Difficult 30% of IT projects are cancelled before completion 75% deficient in meeting user requirements 98% among large (>$10m) ones fail to meet meet requirements, time, and budget

4. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM Old Story, New Focus: IT and Organizational Impact

5. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM Beyond the Efficiency Battle Auto-mation Efficiency versus Info-mation Innovation Flexibility Culture change

6. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM Changes in Technology Skills

7. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM

8. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM IT Sophistication From 70% analogs, to 70% digitals Knowledgeable about desktop PCs, shopping on Internet, word processing, e-mail, mobiles, PDAs,…

9. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM …but rapid technical skills obsolescence

10. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM Technology Costs: Two Continuous Trends

11. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM The Cost of Computers YearCost 1964$10.000.000 2000$10 2005$1 2020$0,01

12. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM

13. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM

14. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM …But Total IT Costs Rising The McKean IT Paradox: Technology is 20% of total costs and effort: The box costs 20%, the wrap up (implementation, support, maintenance, etc) costs 80% From IT to Services

15. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM Always There: Aged Old IT

16. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM Legacy Systems More than 50% of corporate data are in old (i.e. 30 years old) systems (the “legacy systems”) IT consists of 1000s of legacy systems forming a spaghetti chart Integration is always a major technical capability challenge

17. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM Coming Up: The World of a Single, Global Computer Language

18. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM Standards and Global Interconnectivity Towards a common language: making machines talk to each other The extended enterprise: “Cisco is a node in an interconnected global network” –2002: $18 billion in b2b Internet sales, 65% Internet facilitated shipments, 82% of customer service on Internet IT becomes an outward-facing department Applications (web services) available over the internet

19. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM The new IT: From T to I

20. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM Information Over-Overload An average novel is about 10 -6 (0.0000001) TB The U.S. Library of Congress is around 10 TB The worldwide production of information in 2002 was 5 million TB 30 billion emails sent daily in 2002, equals to 440.000 TB information production annually 530.000 TB of internet information in 2002 A bank that took 10 years in the 80’s to accumulate 10 TB of data, now does this in less than 9 months

21. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM Continuous Improvements: Technology Evolution

22. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM

23. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM Moore’s Law

24. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM Gilder’s Bandwidth Law

25. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM Download of “The Matrix” DVD

26. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM Metcalf’s Law

27. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM The Singularity Point Moore’s Law Metcalf’s Law Gilder’s Law Computing Power Network Nodes Connection Speed

28. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM Coming Up Soon: The “Disappearing” Computer, Ubiquitous Computing

29. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM

30. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM Transforming Products with IT 2000 network 1960s hardware 1980s software hardware software

31. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM High Beyond Standalone Products Profitable growth potential Low Product platform Software + Network Services

32. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM Transforming Products: The Car Example

33. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM “A Car is a Java Machine on Wheels” Convenience Fun/Image Multi-media content Auto insurance Safety Airbag deployment Door unlock Door unlock Theft detection Theft detection Emergency services Remote Diagnostics Remote Diagnostics E-Mail V-Mail Traffic reports Custom content Cellular calling Concierge services User Productivity

34. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM And Never Forget: The Three Fundamental Laws of Technology

35. P3 January 2005 Class 8: ISM The Three Fundamental IT Laws 1.Technology evolves, technology’s use evolves, people adapt 2.It is easy to change technology, it is difficult to change people, it is crucial to find the balance between the two (i.e. PETs versus KNETs, Organizations versus Society) 3.The impact (value/cost) of IT is 1.Measurable (hard) and non-measurable (soft) 2.First order and second order (transformative and unexpected )