1. Holistic Youth Development: it may be all right in practice, but it will never work in theory creating and using a holistic youth-centered theory of change Global Youth Economic Opportunities Summit October 7, 2015

3. “Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?" "That depends a good deal on where you want to get to," said the Cat. "I don't much care where—" said Alice. "Then it doesn't matter which way you go," said the Cat. "—so long as I get SOMEWHERE," Alice added as an explanation. "Oh, you're sure to do that," said the Cat, "if you only walk long enough." - Alice in Wonderland, Lewis Carroll

4. WHAT WILL WE COVER IN TODAY’S SESSION? ●What is a theory of change? ●value and purpose ●key components ●creation process ●socialization and utilization ●lessons learned, tools and Q&A

5. “There is nothing so practical as a good theory” -Kurt Lewin

6. WHAT IS A THEORY OF CHANGE? A theory of change is a complete, coherent causal chain from inputs to outputs to outcomes to goal that recognizes the complexity of factors influencing the realization of a shared goal, including conditions outside of our control. – Aaron Ausland LONG-TERM OUTCOME Intermediate Outcomes or Preconditions Preconditions An explanation of how a group of stakeholders expects to reach a commonly understood long-term goal. It articulates the preconditions and resources that create early and inter-mediate changes that add up to this goal. It makes explicit the assumptions that have to hold for the theory to be true. – Aspen Institute

7. FOR WHAT IS A THEORY OF CHANGE? 1.It raises new questions 2.It grounds us in reality 3.It forces clarity over “fuzzy thinking” 4.Puts all the stakeholders “on the same page” Image from The Aspen Institute

8. KEY COMPONENTS  outcomes & preconditions (modeled in causal pathways)  assumptions  rationale  pathway of change  narrative  Optional goodies include: indicators, interventions and enabling conditions  narrative

9. BOTTOM LINE UP TOP Image from Centre for Theory of Change

10. PRECONDITIONS A precondition is what has to happen if the ultimate outcome is to be realized. A focus on the rationale of necessity helps avoid doing things that are good, but don’t get you where you want to go. OUTCOME PRECONDITION

11. ASSUMPTIONS The beliefs about conditions you think exist or about the logical connection between preconditions and what they lead to that are critical to the validity of the theory

12. RATIONALES Why that Precondition? Explaining every step of the way why the outcomes are needed and why they would lead to upper-level outcomes. Why that Intervention? Why in a given context interventions (activities) done in a certain way are most likely to bring about the outcome

13. PATHWAY OF CHANGE

14. NARRATIVE The plain language summary - short and compelling story that explains the map. Can have different versions to emphasize different points, level of detail, etc.

15. OPTIONAL GOODIES Indicators describe what it looks like if a precondition or outcome is met. They are measurable criterion that provide evidence of success along the pathway. Interventions are the actions or activities designed to achieve particular outcomes. You don’t identify interventions until you’ve got the outcomes and their preconditions mapped. Enabling Conditions at the local, national, and global level facilitate the pathway of change. When missing they can constrain success. They are often outside a project’s capacity to strongly or directly influence.

16. THE PATHWAY OF CHANGE

17. HOW DO WE KNOW IF WE HAVE A GOOD THEORY? Plausible Feasible Testable

18. Theory of Change is both a process and a product.

19. STEPS TO FACILITATING THE THEORY OF CHANGE PROCESS

20. THE STEPS 1.Gain buy-in and support from senior staff and technical leads 2.Identify qualified and experienced facilitators 3.Select space and date for ToC workshop 4.Identify and select participants for workshop 5.Organize logistics of workshop 6.Host ToC workshop 7.Establish working group to develop ToC product 8.Peer review by participants and critical friends 9.ToC validated by youth 10.ToC reviewed and ratified by senior staff 11.ToC socialized and put into use

21. THEORY OF CHANGE PROCESS TIMELINE 1.5 months 1 month1 week1 month 2 months 3 days 2 months 1 month 2. Identify qualified and experienced facilitators 1. Gain buy-in and support from senior staff and technical leads 5. Organizing logistics of ToC workshop 3. Select space and date for ToC workshop 4. Identify and select participants for ToC workshop 6. Hosting ToC workshop 7. Establish working group to develop ToC product 8. Have ToC peer reviewed 9. Have ToC validated by youth 10. Have ToC reviewed and ratified by senior staff 11. Socialize ToC

22. ChildFund’s Experience Anita Anastacio, Interim Vice President Program Development

25. DomainPathwayPathway Standard Youth EmploymentWork readinessAll youth are work ready (formal or self-employment) Workforce development and protection policies Communities understand and address child labor Resiliency, coping and decision- making skills All youth receive needs based and comprehensive life skills and psycho-social support Youth Sexual and Reproductive Health Youth-friendly sexual and reproductive health services All youth have access to youth-friendly, confidential and accessible reproductive health services Supportive homes and communities Communities and homes are supportive of healthy sexual and reproductive behaviors for youth Community-based protection mechanisms against sexual exploitation and abuse Communities understand and address sexual exploitation and abuse Youth Change Agents Informed and Involved Citizens Youth utilize citizenship knowledge and skills individually Collective Youth Action Youth collectively advocate for change before public authorities at any level Youth-inclusive EnvironmentsCommunities include and value the active participation of young people in civic life Theory of Change for Youth

26. Goal: “Skilled and Engaged Youth” Youth EmploymentWork Readiness Workforce development and protection policies Resiliency, coping and decision-making skills Youth Sexual and Reproductive Health Supportive homes and communities Youth-friendly sexual and reproductive health services Community-based protection mechanisms against sexual exploitation and abuse Youth Change Agents Informed and Involved Citizens Collective Youth Action Youth-inclusive Environments Same content, different look

28. Examples of Theory of Change Unpacked

29. Examples from country processes

30. Tools Aspen Institute – I’ll get some from Anita

31. Lesson Learned Clarifying distinction from a logframe Use it to clarify what you will do and what others will, but seeing the big picture so it is clear of all that must be done by someone in order to bring about the desired change. Shapes partnerships Getting people in the room with influence, technical skills across org levels, geographical regions, technical areas It takes time