1. Quantifying the Impacts of National Renewable Electricity Ambitions using a North-West European Electricity Market Model Fourth Annual HMRC Forum 24 th April 2013 Paul Deane, Brian Ó Gallachoir. *

2. Energy Policy & Modelling Group Energy Policy & Modelling Group Energy Policy and Modelling Group on

3. Overview National Renewable Energy Action Plans 2020 –focus on renewable electricity –role of offshore wind, wave and tidal energy –what about Ireland? Modelling the impacts at a regional level –PLEXOS –Interconnection –emissions, congestions, imports / exports, electricity prices Conclusions

4. NREAPS Article 4 of the renewable energy Directive (2009/28/EC) ……………they set out how each Member State expects to reach its legally binding 2020 target for the share of renewable energy in their final energy consumption.

5. Wind as % of Demand 2020

12. Ireland-Progress to Targets

13. All Island Fuel Mix-GCS 2013 No commercial Marine Development by 2022 (EirGrid-prudent approach) Crown estates awarded development rights for two 100 MW sites off the coast of NI (value of 154 MW used in recent GAR) Ballylumford closure, Kilroot restrictions, Moyle outages. Great Island, 150 MW Biomass CHP, OCGT’s

14. Putting all this together

15. Modelling Inputs

16. 1) g

18. Results Emissions Flows Congestion Prices

19. Emissions

20. Emissions Intensity 2009 vs 2020

21. Imports/Exports ImportsExportsNet Interchange unit All Island15412483942 GWh BE392845474-33810 GWh DE26821280041183 GWh FR23119808695776 GWh GB344504907-29543 GWh LU66471238-5409 GWh NL1687314255-2618 GWh

22. Hours of Congestion on IC between Regions

24. However Last week the European Parliament rejected a proposal from the European Commission to temporarily shore up the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).

25. Conclusion Offshore wind could play a prominent roll Wave may have a strong theoretical resource but is overtaken by Solar Congestion on mainland Europe will limit the movement of power Coal still a strong player in the Mix (DE) Weak ETS price may slow investments SEM uncertainty over Moyle

26. Energy Policy & Modelling Group Energy Policy & Modelling Group Energy Policy and Modelling Group on