1. Progress Report of the Gulf of Maine Integrated Model System The UMASSD Team: C. Chen, G. Cowles, D. Stuebe, S. Hu, Q. Xu and P. Xue The WHOI Team: R. C. Beardsley, C. Davis, R. Ji and D. Limeburner The MIT Team: P. Rizzolli and J. Wei Website: http://fvcom.smast.umassd.edu

2. Outlines 1)Upgrade the MM5 to WRF (Meteorological Forcing) 2)Upgrade the GoM FVCOM to the third generation 3)Data assimilation experiments for the GLOBEC hindcast years 4)Introduction of the Northeast Ocean Forecast System (NeCOFS)

3. MASS Coastal FVCOM Surface Wave Model Generalized Ecosystem Model (FVCOM Module) Sediment Transport Model (FVCOM Module) Local Weather Model (WRF)/MM5 North American Meso-scale (NAM) Weather Model Satellite SST Buoy Winds Insolation Satellite SST, U,V Buoy T,S,U,V Freshwater Input Global Tidal Model Under developed Existing Models FVCOM System KEY Heat Flux Wind Stress P-E U,V PAR Data BC’s U,V Waves, Langmuir Cells Form Drag assimilation Multi-Stage Zooplankton Model (IBM and concentration-based) Nutrients, Phytoplankton Ocean Colors Fish Larval Model (IBM and concentration-based) VPR Larval data GoM/GB FVCOM BC’s Inflow Groundwater Input The Gulf of Maine Integrated Model System

4. MM5WRF B-grid First-order leapfrog time integration Finite-difference with no guarantee of conservation Advection-second-order centered difference scheme Time split modes for acoustic and gravity waves C-grid Third-order Runge-Kutta split-explicit time integration Finite-volume with guarantee of conservation Advection-fifth-order upwind scheme or sixth-order centered difference scheme. Time split modes for acoustic and gravity waves

5. Regional Domain: 9 km Large domain: 27 km Domain 1 Domain 2 Domain 3 Local domain: 3 km Hindcast

6. Comparison of MM5 and WRF with observations

7. Comparison of MM5 and WRF with observations at all buoys Model u(m/s)v(m/s) t( ° C) MM52.73.42.93.91.41.8 WRF2.43.02.83.51.41.8 Forecast Errors for May 2-10, 2007 on 11 buoys

8. Second Generation Horizontal resolution: 0.3-1.0 km in the coastal region; Generalized terrain-following coordinates: 46 layers: 10 uniform layers in the surface and bottom boundary layers, respectively. 1500 m cutoff off Georges Bank Capable to nest to the coasta-estuarine model with a horizontal resolution of ~10 -500 m; Third Generation Horizontal resolution: 0.5-1.0 km in the coastal region; Sigma-coordinates: 31 vertical layers 300 m cutoff off Georges Bank

9. Second GenerationThird Generation Surface sigma level: don’t resolve the near- surface current because the horizontal velocity is calculated at the mid-point of the first sigma layer, which changes with depth. At the 2-m below the surface: Resolve the near-surface current better with the thin uniform layers at the surface..

10. 2 m at GoMOOS Buoy E50 m at GoMOOS Buoy E Observed Second-generation FVCOMThird-generation FVCOM 3rd FVCOM shows a certain level improvement than 2nd FVCOM for some relatively large wind events.

11. Data Assimilation Experiments 1)Optimal Interpolation (OI) assimilated all T/S data into the model as monthly arrays 2)Ensemble Kalman Filter to assimilate all T/S data into the model as adaptive samplings Examples were made for the 1998 hindcast reanalysis experiment Note: The ensemble Kalman filter experiment results were made by the graduate student Xue and he is in hospital, so the results are not included in this talk.

12. Jan FebMarApr MayJuneJuly Aug SptOctNovDec The hydrographic data sites: January-December, 1998

13. With no OI Assimilation With OI Assimilation Near-surface, April 1998

14. Velocity (OI)-Velocity (No-OI); Temperature (OI)-Temperature (No-OI)

15. No OIWith OI Near-surface, August 1988

16. Velocity (OI)-Velocity (No-OI); Temperature (OI)-Temperature (No-OI)

17. At 150-m, August 1998 NO-OIWith-OI Note: Temperature contour needs to check (interpolation method?)

18. NeCOFS Model Flow Diagram: 1.0 Stage: 1 (midnight) Crontab starts NeCOFS wrf forecast data wrf hindcast data fvcom data (results) river data sst data Day# -10 -5 -4 -3 -2 -10123 Day 0 ~ now Current Process 1: 2: 3: (Previous Hindcast) (Previous Forecast)

19. NeCOFS Model Flow Diagram: 1.0 Stage: 2 (midnight) Upate River Data wrf forecast data wrf hindcast data fvcom data (results) river data sst data (Previous Forecast) Day# -10 -5 -4 -3 -2 -10123 Current Process 1: Download USGS data and update data file 2: 3: (Previous Hindcast)

20. NeCOFS Model Flow Diagram: 1.0 Stage: 3 (00:10) Upate SST Data wrf forecast data wrf hindcast data fvcom data (results) river data sst data Day# -10 -5 -4 -3 -2 -10123 Current Process 1: Download JPL SST and update OI assim 2: 3: S 2 (Previous Forecast) (Previous Hindcast) Latest available SST data is already several days old

21. NeCOFS Model Flow Diagram: 1.0 Stage: 4 (00:15) Run WRF wrf forecast data wrf hindcast data fvcom data (results) river data sst data Day# -10 -5 -4 -3 -2 -10123 Current Process 1: WRF Forecast 2: WRF Hindcast 3: S 2 S 3 Continuous WRF data archive is automatically updated with new results (Previous Hindcast) (Previous Forecast)

22. NeCOFS Model Flow Diagram: 1.0 Stage: 5 (08:00) Start FVCOM hindcast wrf forecast data wrf hindcast data fvcom data (results) river data sst data Day# -10 -5 -4 -3 -2 -10123 Current Process 1: WRF Forecast 2: FVCOM Hindcast 3: S 2 S 3 FVCOM overwrites old results updating time period of new WRF data. S 4 (Still running) (Previous Hindcast) (Previous Forecast)

23. NeCOFS Model Flow Diagram: 1.0 Stage: 6 (11:00) Start FVCOM Forecast wrf forecast data wrf hindcast data fvcom data (results) river data sst data Day# -10 -5 -4 -3 -2 -10123 Current Process 1: FVCOM Forecast 2: 3: S 2 S 3 S 4 S 5 (Previous Hindcast) (Previous Forecast) FVCOM forecast runs till end of available WRF data

24. NeCOFS Model Flow Diagram: 1.0 Stage: 7 (12:00) NeCOFS Forecast Finished! wrf forecast data wrf hindcast data fvcom data (results) river data sst data Day# -10 -5 -4 -3 -2 -10123 Current Process 1: 2: 3: S 2 S 3 S 4 S 5 S 6 New Results are Automatically posted to the web site! (Previous Hindcast) (Previous Forecast)

26. Publications (only physical compoment) 1.Chen, C. R. C. Beardsley, Q. Xu, G. Cowles and R. Lime burner, 2007. Tidal dynamics in the Gulf of Maine and New England Shelf: An application of FVCOM. Journal of Geophysical Research, in revision 2.Chen, C., H. Huang, R. C. Beardsley, H. Liu, Q. Xu, and G. Cowles, 2007. A finite-volume numerical approach for coastal ocean circulation studies: comparisons with finite-difference models. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, C03018, doi:10.1029/2006JC003485. 3.Chen, C., Q. Xu, R. Houghton and R. C. Beardsley, 2007. A Model-Dye Comparison Experiment in the Tidal Mixing Front Zone on the Southern Flank of Georges Bank. Journal of Geophysical Research, in press. 4.Chen, C., R. C. Beardsley, Q. Xu and R. Limeburner, Tidal Dynamics in the Gulf of Maine and New England Shelf: An Application of FVCOM. Deep Sea Research II: GLOBEC/GB Special Issue. In revision. 5.Chen, C., P.Malanotte-Rizzoli, J. Wei, R. C. Beardsely, Z. Lai, P. Xue, S. Lyu, Q. Xu, J. Qi and G. Cowles, Validation of Kalman filters for coastal ocean problems: an experiment with FVCOM. Journal of Geophysical Research, submitted. 6.Cowles, G., Chen, C., Lentz, S.L., Beardsley, R.C., and Xu, Q., 2007. Validation of Model-Computed Low Frequency Currents on the New England Shelf. Journal of Geophysical Research, accepted with revision. 7.Huang, H. C. Chen, G. Cowles, C. D. Winant, R. C. Beardsley, K. S. Hedstrom, and D. B. Haidvogel, 2007. FVCOM validation experiments: comparisons with ROMS for three idealized test problems. Journal of Geophysical Research, submitted. 8.Lai, Z, C. Chen, G. Cowles and R. C. Beardsley, A non-hydrostatic version of FVCOM-validation experiment I: surface standing and solitary waves. In preparation. 9.Lai, Z., C. Chen, G. Cowles and R. C. Beardsley, A non-hydrostatic version of FVCOM-valiation experiment II: lock exchange flow and internal solitary waves. In preparation.

27. On-going Activities 1.Complete the data assimilation experiments with OI and K-Filters. 2.Coupled UG-SWAN into FVCOM to include the dynamics of the current and wave interaction. 3.Improve the model dynamics with more accurate and complete river discharges. 4.Apply the non-hydrostatic version of FVCOM (NH-FVCOM) to resolve the internal waves on the slope and wintertime convection.