1. Estimating expenditure

2. Links with CARESIM PSSRU model provides weights to CARESIM –broken down by age/gender/marital status/housing tenure for six different service categories – 3 residential, 3 home care –for each projection year up to 2022 –to be developed? CARESIM model provides to PSSRU model –projected trend in % of care home residents and home care clients eligible for state support –projected average % of care home and home care fees met by state supported service users –projected average % of user charges and private payments met using disability benefits

3. Source of funding For each service, service users divided into: –NHS funded (DH data/assumed) –PSS funded (DH data) –Privately funded (assumed) Trend in ratio of private to PSS provided by CARESIM

4. Expenditure (1) Volume for community-based calculated –Intensity per week by dependency group/CARESIM grouping (GHS - scaled for some services) Weekly expenditure calculated –Cost attached to each unit of service delivered (PSSRU, DH) –variations by source of funding –UC uprated by 2% per year, different assumptions explored in scenarios

5. Expenditure (2) Recovery of charges –For each service (PSS EX1) –For PSS funded: % recovered from CARESIM Other services –Assessment and care management –?supporting people, direct payments etc Annual expenditure calculated –By service, source of funding and source of contribution (benefits/other) –For PSS/private funded: % disability benefits towards user charges/private from CARESIM –Grossed by location of care (PSS EX1) –Proportion of GDP (treasury assumptions re growth)