1. “Quick Look” Trajectory Assessment of Phase 1 Battelle PMF Sources at Lye Brook Wilderness IMPROVE Site P. Wishinski & R. Poirot, VT DEC ° 9 PMF Sources From Phase 1 Battelle SA Study ° ATAD Trajectories (4/day, 5 days back) from NPS ° Daily Source Contributions Normalized by x 1/mean ° Source Compositions summarized graphically, 2 ways ° “High” Source contributions defined as > 2.5 x mean (= about highest 10% of Source days (out of 671 days) ° Incremental Probability = high day probability minus every (sample) day probability (blues= low prob.; reds = high prob.)

2. Lye Brook PMF Source 1 Average Mass = 0.35 ug/m3 = 4.8 % of Total Fine Mass, Increasing Trend B ext : Minor on both Best 20% & Worst 20% Days, Winter Maxima Major Mass Contributing Species of Source: EC, S Major Species Contributed by Source: Se, Br Battelle Guess: 2ndary Sulfate New Guess: Primary Coal

3. Lye Brook PMF Source 2 Average Mass = 0.46 ug/m3 = 6.0 % of Total Fine Mass, Decreasing Trend B ext : Major on Best 20% days, Minor on Worst 20% Days, Winter Maxima Major Mass Contributing Species of Source: OC, EC, S Major Species Contributed by Source: Cu, Zn Battelle Guess: Smelter? New Guess: MW Smelters, Metal Processing

4. Lye Brook PMF Source 3 Average Mass = 0.13 ug/m3 = 1.8 % of Total Fine Mass, Increasing Trend B ext : Minor on both Best 20% & Worst 20% Days, Spring Maxima Major Mass Contributing Species of Source: Si, S, OC, Ca, Fe, EC, K, Mg Major Species Contributed by Source: Ca, Si, Fe Battelle Guess: Crustal New Guess: Limestone Soil?, Cement Kiln? (maybe local or nearby NY)

5. Lye Brook PMF Source 4 Average Mass = 0.19 ug/m3 = 2.5 % of Total Fine Mass, Increasing Trend B ext : Minor on both Best 20% & Worst 20% Days, Winter Maxima Major Mass Contributing Species of Source: S, EC, Pb Major Species Contributed by Source: Pb, Zn Battelle Guess: Incinerator? New Guess: East Coast Incinerators

6. Lye Brook PMF Source 5 Average Mass = 2.42 ug/m3 = 32.0 % of Total Fine Mass, Increasing Trend B ext : Major on Best 20% days, Minor on Worst 20% Days, Summer Maxima Major Mass Contributing Species of Source: OC, EC, S, K Major Species Contributed by Source: OC, Mn, V, K, EC Battelle Guess: Veg. Burning New Guess: Veg. Burning (local & Can.)

7. Lye Brook PMF Source 6 Average Mass = 3.20 ug/m3 = 42.0 % of Total Fine Mass, No Trend B ext : Major on both Best 20% & Worst 20% Days, Summer Maxima Major Mass Contributing Species of Source: S, OC, EC, Na, Si Major Species Contributed by Source: S, Ti, Na, Battelle Guess: Secondary Sulfate New Guess: Secondary Coal

8. Lye Brook PMF Source 7 Average Mass = 0.37 ug/m3 = 4.8 % of Total Fine Mass, Decreasing Trend B ext : Minor on both Best 20% & Worst 20% Days, Spring Maxima Major Mass Contributing Species of Source: Al, Si, OC, Fe, Na Major Species Contributed by Source: Al, Ti, Fe, Si, STI Guess: Crustal?New Guess: Distant Soil (SW US, Sahara?)

9. Lye Brook PMF Source 8 Average Mass = 0.38 ug/m3 = 5.0 % of Total Fine Mass, No Trend B ext : Minor on both Best 20% & Worst 20% Days, Winter Maxima Major Mass Contributing Species of Source: OC, EC, S, Si, Ni, V, Fe, Mg Major Species Contributed by Source: Ni, V STI Guess: Secondary OCNew Guess: East Coast Residual Oil

10. Lye Brook PMF Source 9 Average Mass = 0.07 ug/m3 = 0.9 % of Total Fine Mass, Increasing Trend B ext : Minor on both Best 20% & Worst 20% Days, Spring Maxima Major Mass Contributing Species of Source: Na, S, K, Mg, EC, Ca, Al, Si Major Species Contributed by Source: Na, Mg, Br Battelle Guess: Road SaltNew Guess: Aged Sea Salt

11. Notes: -Sources 1 & 6 are very consistent with concepts of “Primary” & “Secondary” MW Coal identified by VT & Clarkson at both Underhill & Brigantine. - Source 3 has strong crustal component, but also high OC & S, and a very high Ca:Al ratio. Possibly from local calcarious soil, (or road dust from) or a relatively nearby cement plant / lime kiln. Absence of Al might be related to analytical artifact? - Source 4 is similar to unknown EC/Pb/Zn source at Brigantine. - Source 5 is similar to a wood smoke source at Underhill, with Canadian forest fire influence in summer. Local wood burning may not show up in winter at high elevation LYBR site. - Source 7 looks like windblown dust, but high Al & no Ca may indicate influence from Al analytical artifact. - Source 8 is very consistent with Residual Oil Source identified by VT & Clarkson at both Underhill & Brigantine, centered around greater NYC area. - Source 9, with elevated NA, Mg, K & Br, from Hudson’s Bay & SE Coast looks like sea salt, but also has relatively high crustal elements – Al & Si?