1. How well are Southern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns predicted by seasonal climate models? Tércio Ambrizzi Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha Departament of Atmospheric Science - USP Simone E. Teleginski Ferraz Departament of Physics - UFSM EUROBRISA – PARATI /2008

2. Rossby Wave Theory The barotropic vorticity equaiton is: Basic Theory – Rossby (1939, 1945) Assuming that And defining the perturbed streamfunction ψ, we have: Assuming the wave solution We get: or

3. Some characteristics of Rossby waves are: They propagate to the west They are dispersive The group velocity is given by: For a stationary wave (ω=0; c=0): and Playing with the equations, it is possible to define the ray path radius of curvature which is given by the simple expression (Hoskins e Ambrizzi 1993)

4. Schematic K s profiles and ray path refraction (a)Simple refraction (b) Reflection from a turning latitude Y TL, at which K s = k (c) Reflection of all wavenumbers before a latitude Y B at which  * = 0 (d) Refraction into a critical latitude Y CL at which U = 0 (e) waveguide effect of a K s maximum. (Hoskins e Ambrizzi 1993)

5. Main teleconnection patterns obtained from observational analysis and numerical modeling - DJF

6. Main teleconnection patterns obtained from observational analysis and numerical modeling - JJA (Ambrizzi et al 1995)

7. Stream Function, Omega, Precip and Q vector - average for four El Niño events Anomaly of Ψ and precipitation Div of Q anomaly of omega (Magaña e Ambrizzi, 2005)

8. ZONAL WIND - U

9. RAY TRACING FOR EL NIÑO/LA NIÑA (EN/DJF)(LN/DJF) (EN/MAM)(LN/MAM) (Coelho, 2001)

10. I = (X i - X i )/  i ENSO episodes and the South American Regional Precipitation Seasonal Standardized index for the austral summer (DJF) and autumn (MAM) were calculated for the precipitation over key- areas of South America and the SSTa over the Niño 1.2, 3, 3.4 and 4 (Ambrizzi and Souza, 2003)

11. El Niño Episodes and regional precipitation over South America during the period 1950-1990 aSST Niños E Amazônia NE Brasil SACZ SE South America Altiplano Equator Peru

12. SSTs for 4 EL NIÑO EVENTS El Niño 82/83 El Niño 86/87 El Niño 91/92El Niño 97/98 Average for 4 events (Drumond e Ambrizzi, 2003)

13. OMEGA ANOMALY (Magaña e Ambrizzi 2005)

14. MEAN ZONAL WIND, 250 hPa, DJF

15. STREAMFUNCTION AND RAY TRACING FOR 4 EL NIÑO EVENTS Anomaly of Ψ

20. NCEP

21. 15S/165E

26. Meridional Wind

28. EUROBRISA… “downscaling” with RegCM3 Dr. Rosmeri P. Rocha ONE EXAMPLE OF SEASONAL FORECASTING: RegCM3 initialized with ECMWF (SON- 2004) – one member only

29. TOPOGRAPHY AND DOMAIN VERTICAL LEVELS: 18 HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION = 60 KM ECMWF domain: 100w-20W - 45S – 20N

30. Initial Condition: 00Z 02.08.2004 (forecasting between 02-31/08/2004 is excluded from the analysis - “spin-up”) = first member was used. Spring forecasting: SON 2004 Analysis: precipitation from CPC/NOAA (Silva et al. 2007) and CMAP (Xie and Arkin 96)

31. Air Temperature – RegCM3 x ECMWF RegCM3 NCEP

32. GRUPO DE ESTUDOS CLIMÁTICOS THANKS AND WELCOME TO BRAZIL CLIMATE STUDIES GROUP