1. Relationship Between Economic Activity and SO x Emissions: 1950-2000 Version 5 April 22, 2002 Class Project Me 449 Sustainable Air Quality Y. Kuwabara, S. Lahr, B. Ponczak, M Roberts, A. Shaw Instructor: R. Husar Washington University School of Engineering and Applied Sciences

2. Economic Activity-Emission Relationship Develop a relationship between the pollutant emission rate SOx and the activities in Industrial, Transport, Residential and Commercial economic sectors. SOx = f ( IA, TA, RA, CA) I ndustrial, IA T ransport, TA R esidential,TA C ommmerc.,CA Ind. Energy Tr. Energy Res.Energy Com. Energy Coal Oil Gas Electricity Air Pollution SOx NOx HC PM ActivityConsumption ProductionEmission Metals ZOther Ind. Goods Nuclear Land Poll. Water Poll.

3. I nd. Activity, IA T ransp. Activity,TA R esid. Activity,RA C omm. Activity,CA Industr. Energy, IE Transp. Energy, TE Resid.Energy, RE Commerc. Energy, CE Activity Goods Consumption Material Goods Consumption, MG= a im x IA Ind. Other GoodsCons., XG = a ix x IA Ind. Energy Consumption, IE = a ii x IA Transp. Energy Consumption, TE = a tt x TA Resid. Energy Consumption, RE= a rr x RA Commercial Energy Cons., CE= a cc x CA Total Goods & Energy Consumption = MG + IE + TE + RE + CE Total Goods & Energy Consumption = a im x IA + a ii x IA + a tt x TA + a rr x RA + a cc x CA a im =Material Goods/Industrial Activity a te =Transport Energy/Transport Activity a re = Residential Energy/Residential Activity a ce = Residential Energy / Residential Activity Material Goods, MG a ie =Industrial Energy/Industrial Activity Other Goods, XG a ix =Other X Goods/Industrial Activity

4. Coal Cons. CC Oil Cons, OC Gas Cons, GC Metals Cons, MC b ic =(ICC+ILC)/IE b mm = MC /MG Metals Cons., MC= b mm x MG = = a im x b mm IA Coal Cons, CC = b ic x IE + b tc x TE + b rc x RE + b cc x CE = a ii x b ic x IA + a tt x b tc x TA + a rr x b rc x RA + a cc x b cc x CA Oil Cons, CC = Gas Cons, CC = Industr. Energy, IE Transp. Energy, TE Resid.Energy, RE Commerc. Energy, CE Goods Consumption Material Goods, MG Material Consumption b tc =(TCC+TLC)/TE b rc =(RCC+RLC)/RE b cc =(CCC+CLC)/CE Other Goods, XG XChemical Cons XC b mx = XG /XC

5. Electricity distribution Matrix The coefficients ILS etc. represent electric energy consumed by a given sector by a fuel CoalOilGasNuclear & Other IndustrialILCILOILGILN TransportTLCTLOTLGTLN ResidentRLCRLORLGRLN Commerc.CLCCLOCLG Ind. Electr. by Coal, ILC Trasp. Electr. by Coal, TLC Resid. Electr. by Coal, RLC Comm. Electr.by Coal, CLC

6. Coal Cons. CC Oil Cons, OC Gas Cons, GC Metals Cons, MC Material Consumption Air Pollution SOx, SE NOx, NE HC, HE PM, PE Emission Nuclear, U Land Poll., L Water Poll., W c ms = S/MC c cs = S/CC c os = S/OC c gs = S/GC Emission relationship to material(metal) and fuel consumption: SOx Emission, SE= c ms x MC + c xs x XC + c cs x CC + c os x OC + c gs x GC Chemical Cons, XC c xs = S/XC

7. Emission relationship to goods and energy demand: SOx Emission, SE= c ms x b mm x MG + c xs x b mx x XG + Metals & XOther c cs x (b ic x IE + b tc x TE + b rc x RE + b cc x CE) +Coal c os x (b io x IE + b to x TE + b ro x RE + b co x CE) +Oil c gs x (b ig x IE + b tg x TE + b rg x RE + b cg x CE)Gas Emission relationship to economic activities: SOx Emission, SE= = c ms x b mm x a im x IA + c xs x b mx x a im x IA + c cs x (b ic x a ii x IA + b tc x a tt x TA + b rc x a rr x RA + b cc x a cc x CA) + c os x (b io x a ii x IA + b to x a tt x TA + b ro x a rr x RA + b co x a cc x CA) + c gs x (b ig x a ii x IA + b tg x a tt x TA + b rg x a rr x RA + b cg x a cc x CA)

9. Industrial Energy by Fuel Since 1970, electricity has become the largest energy source for the industry ‘Green’ – non fossil fuel electricity is becoming a significant energy source

11. Metals Production and Emission

12. Commercial Residential Sector Indices The residential and Commercial sector have grown parallel since 1950

13. Commercial Residential Sector The person/housing declined but the energy/housing peaked around 1970 The residential units and the energy use has grown have grown parallel since 1950

14. Commercial Residential Energy Consumption Since the 1960s, electricity has become the main energy source Currently, ‘dirty’ coal and ‘clean’ gas supply the CR energy

15. Commercial Residential Sox Emissions Since the 1960s, direct Sox emissions from the CR sector has been minimal Virtually all the CR Sox emissions are contributed indirectly through the use of electricity

16. Commercial Residential Sox Emission Factors

17. Comm. Res. Sox Emission Factors/Person Considering only the direct emissions, the em. factors have declined dramatically Including the indirect EL emissions, the em. factors have declined slightly

18. CR Causality: Population - Housing - Sox Emissions In the 1950-1970, the increase of Sox was driven by the population increase The Sox decline since 1960 was caused by a reduction of emission factors