1. 1 Director’s Update of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction COPC Meeting Naval Oceanography Center Bay St. Louis, Mississippi November 20-21, 2002 Dr. Louis Uccellini NCEP Director “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”

2. 2 Overview NCEP Contribution to Homeland Security Infrastructure Activities NCEP 2002 Implementations NCEP 2002 Real Time Test and Evaluation NCEP Planned 2003 Implementations Volcanic Ash Model Backup JCSDA News WRF News Appendices

3. 3 NCEP’s Contribution to Homeland Security Currently, NCEP is providing the following: - HYSPLIT model running off 12 km Eta model November 2001 - On demand ARL HYSPLIT model run using 4 km NCEP Nonhydrostatic Meso Model (NMM) 25 June 2002 4 km NMM model can be run over any one of 26 predefined regions covering CONUS, AK, HI, and PR.

4. 4 4 km NMM Domains

5. 5 Infrastructure Activities New NCEP supercomputer contract has been awarded to IBM and has been installed at IBM’s facility in Gaithersburg, MD and is scheduled to be operational no later then 1 July 2003 Backup NCEP supercomputer site recommendation to senior NOAA management planned for mid December 2002 – backup computer funding awaits congressional action on FY03 budget Backup NCF in Fairmont, W. VA - October 2002 tests have started Backup NWSTG in Mt. Weather, VA – September 2004

6. 6 NCEP 2002 Implementations Global Forecast System AVN and MRF models runs have been renamed the “Global Forecast System” (GFS) Length of 4 per day GFS runs increased to 384 Hours - 5 March 2002 MRF run discontinued and replaced with the extended 00 UTC GFS - 23 April 2002

7. 7 NCEP 2002 Implementations (cont.) Global Forecast System Resolution increase from T170L42 (75km) to T254L64 (55 km) – 29 October 2002 Resolution steps down in later forecast hours Forecast HourNewOld F000 - F084T254L64T170L42 F087 - F180T170L42 F192 – F384T126L28T62L28

8. 8

9. 9 NCEP 2002 Implementations (cont.) Mesoscale Models RUC model resolution increase from 40 km / 40 levels to 20 km / 50 levels - 16 April 2002 RSAS resolution upgrade from 60 km to 15 km 11 June 2002

10. 10 NCEP 2002 Implementations (cont.) Ocean Models Eastern North Pacific regional wave model - 30 April 2002 GFDL Hurricane Model Upgrade from a three grid system (1 deg x 1/3 deg x 1/6 deg) to a larger two grid system (½ deg x 1/6 deg) – 21 May 2002

11. 11 Wave Watch III Eastern North Pacific Domain.25 x.25 deg domain implemented April 30, 2002. Able to resolve all coastal stations and buoys Hurricane version to be implemented for ’03 season

12. 12 NCEP 2002 Real Time Test and Evaluation Mesoscale Models SREF – 5 Eta members with Kain-Fritsch physics – June 2002 (Note 5 Eta and 5 RSM members operational since 1 September 2001) 8 km Nonhydrostatic mesoscale model 17 July 2002

13. 13 NCEP 2003 Planned Implementations Eta physics package and 3DVAR upgrade – Spring 2003 Eastern Pacific hurricane wave model – Spring 2003 8 km nonhydrostatic mesoscale model within WRF infrastructure and coding standards by Summer 2003

14. 14 NCEP 2003 Planned Implementations (cont.) Wave Model – Extend to 7 days with 4 runs per day Fall 2003 Global Ensembles – 4 per day 10 members T126 for 7.5 days T62 from 7.5 days to end Fall 2003 Global Forecast System (GFS) – Coupled model for sea surface temps – Summer 2003 – Hourly meteograms out to 36 hours– Spring 2003 – Hourly Long wave radiation package – Fall 2003

15. 15 Volcanic Ash Model Backup For backup to the VAFTAD model, the NWSTG can now post the AFWA PUFF model graphics - NCEP supplied commercial graphic package to AFWA. This package converts graphics to NWSTG usable form - All requested changes to graphic output have been made NCEP, NESDIS and AFWA MOA is being finalized

16. 16 Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation created July 2, 2001 Increase uses of current satellite data in NWP models Develop the hardware/software systems needed to assimilate data from the advanced satellite sensors Advance the common NWP models and data assimilation infrastructure Develop common fast radiative transfer system Assess the impacts of data from advanced satellite sensors on weather and climate predictions Reduce the average time for operational implementations of new satellite technology from two years to one Accelerate use of research and operational satellite data in operational numerical prediction models Goals:

17. 17 JCSDA Partners NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office NASA/Goddard Seasonal Interannual Prediction Project NOAA/NESDIS Office of Research & Applications NOAA/OAR Office of Weather and Air Quality NOAA/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center US Navy Office of Naval Research US Air Force Air Weather Agency (XOW)

18. 18 Organizational Structure NASA & NOAA Joint Oversight Board Directors of: NOAA NCEP: L. Uccellini(Chair) Goddard ESD: F. Einaudi NOAA ORA: M. Colton NOAA OWAQR: D. Rogers Navy: R. McCoy, R. Hillyer USAF: M. Farrar Joint Center Staff Center Director: Stephen Lord (Acting) Executive Directors: Fuzhong Weng – NESDIS, L.-P. Riishojgaard - NASA Technical Liaisons: DAO – R. Dee EMC – J. Derber NSIPP – M. Rienecker OWAQR – A. Gasiewski ORA – D. Tarpley Navy – Nancy Baker Contractor Support: George Ohring (NESDIS) Secretary Advisory Panel Rotating Chair Between NASA, NOAA Science Steering Committee

19. 19 JCSDA Recent Accomplishments Land emissivity model tested in NCEP operational models Positive impacts with AMSU data over land (May,2002) Operational implementation (October, 2002) New Data used in NCEP operational models SSM/I, TRMM microwave imager precipitation estimates SSM/I, AMSU cloud liquid water GOES-10 IR radiances QuikSCAT data Preparation for AIRS Computer installed at NASA to deliver data within 180 minutes of ingest Fast radiative model developed, documented, delivered, undergoing testing One day GDAS test of AIRS data done in September 2002 Start automated processing AIRS data in November 2002 “Foundation” Science Issues and Priorities agreed to: Basis for AO

20. 20 Framework of Where NCEP is Headed: FY2005 and Beyond JCSDA (distributed) Global “Test Bed” will be needed Probable Boulder “Test Bed” …

21. WRF MOA established and is being signed by all parties. Made available 30-day retrospective data sets (BUFR & GRIB) suitable for WRF testing. Adapted (with NSSL) NCEP operational NMM postprocessor to WRF standards, issued code and users’ guide. WRF Progress at NCEP in 2002

22. Converted Eta & NMM dynamics and all physics modules to WRF coding standards. Ensured all converted code reproduced NCEP control version results (VERY IMPORTANT). Final step to wrap NMM under WRF modeling infrastructure underway - implementation scheduled for 4Q FY2003. Made EMC’s grid-to-obs verification codes available with users’ guide. Unification (with AFWA) of Land-Surface Model in WRF framework nearing completion.

23. WRF Progress at NCEP in 2002 NCEP led WG#4 developed beta version of WRF 3DVAR for testing (nearly ready for release) NCEP led WG#9 is proactive in setting needs for testing and infrastructure efficiencies. NCEP led WG#12 establishes NCEP’s prepared BUFR observation set for use in WRF 3DVAR and in WRF verification using NCEP’s code. Duane Stevens (University of Hawaii) at NCEP working with WRF teams (application of Semi- Lagrangian to hurricanes and evaluation of NCAR Eulerian vs NMM over Hawaii)

24. WRF Progress at NCEP in 2002 Established Parallel system to run NCAR Eulerian mass model with NCEP physics in identical 8 km HiResWindow configuration 4 large domain nests (Western,Central&Eastern CONUS + Alaska) 2 small domain nests (Hawaii and Puerto Rico) Semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit dynamic core: Generalized vertical coordinate embodies pure sigma and pure isentropic and ALL hybrids in between Cascade interpolation allowing forward trajectories High-order accuracy compact difference schemes Non-reflective top boundary condition All development within WRF infrastructure

25. WRF Development at NCEP/EMC FY03 Funding $1.5 M $700 K NWS base $800 K External Effort for FY03 Nelson Seaman hired under IPA to lead NOAA WRF management Total 14.3 PY (Model and Data Assim) 7.3 PY for development (Semi-Lagrangian, DA) 7.0 PY for Mesoscale Branch Infrastructure Setting up and making test runs NMM benchmark codes and runs WRF system test plan

26. 26 Appendices JCSDA Scientific Projects Current NCEP Backup

27. 27 Scientific Projects under JCSDA ? Quikscat Winds  Tested with slightly positive impact  As of Jan. 22, will be part of operational data stream for use in NCEP models ? TRMM Precipitation Estimates  Tested and found to be useful supplement to SSM/I data  Ingested by operational models starting October 16, 2001

28. 28 Scientific Projects under JCSDA AMSU radiances –Used operationally since February 2001 –Statistical correction for cloud liquid water sensitivity being evaluated GOES radiances –Used operationally in both regional (since Sept., 2000) and global systems (since 1998) –Attempts underway to obtain and use full resolution sounder data

29. 29 Current NCEP Backup NCEP Model Products Backup Model Products –12 km Eta => AFWA MM5 @ 45km –T254L64 GFS => Navy NOGAPS T239L30 –Wave Model => Navy WW3 same model –GFDL Hurricane => Navy GFDN Hurricane –RUC 20 km => FSL RUC same model 20 km –Ensembles => No backup available –WAFS Grids, Fax and Graphics => UKMET –VAFTAD => AFWA PUFF