1. Long Term Plan for Meso scale OSSE In Joint OSSEs November 29, 2007 WWB 209

2. Agenda Need for Long term planning (Fuzhong Weng) Over view of Joint OSSE NR (Michiko) Meso scale OSSE plan for MSS (Chris Hill) Other related work and progress in NICAM model (Michiko) Discussion on Requirement for Meso scale Nature run and meso scale OSSE for Joint OSSE

3. Need for plan in Meso scale OSSE High resolution data become available. Demand (hope) for high resolution data assimilation and forecast Meso scale OSSEs are being conducted at NCAR and Wisconsin Although we will be busy in working T511 T799 NR for next few years, Joint OSSE has to have a guide line toward meso scale OSSE to integrate the effort. Goal of the meeting Discuss about consensus toward Objective and need for meso scale OSSE Requirements for meso scale Nature run Requirements for meso scale OSSEs To be finalized through follow up discussion or another meeting.

4. Joint OSSE Nature Run Internationally collaborative Full OSSEs sharing the same Nature Run http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/JointOSSEs http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/THORPEX/osse

5. New Nature Run by ECMWF Based on Recommendations by JCSDA, NCEP, GMAO, GLA, SIVO, SWA, NESDIS, ESRL Low Resolution Nature Run Spectral resolution : T511 Vertical levels: L91 3 hourly dump Initial conditions: 12Z May 1 st, 2005 Ends at: 0Z Jun 1,2006 Daily SST and ICE: provided by NCEP Model: Version cy31r1 Completed in July 2006, rerun October 2006 Two High Resolution Nature Run 35 days long Hurricane season: Starting at 12z September 27,2005, Convective precipitation over US: starting at 12Z April 10, 2006 T799 resolution, 91 levels, one hourly dump Get initial conditions from T511 NR

6. To be archived in the MARS system on the THORPEX server at ECMWF Accessed by external users expver=etwu Copies for US are available to designated users & users known to ECMWF Redistribution right not given ( Contact Michiko Masutani michiko.masutani@noaa.gov)michiko.masutani@noaa.gov Saved at NCEP, ESRL, and NASA/GSFC/SIVO Complete data available to out side from portal at SIVO Proposed subset of the data: The complete surface data in reduced Gaussian (N256, N400), Complete (1x1, 0.5x0.5)pressure level data Complete (1x1,0.5x0.5) isentropic data A few days worth model level data to be posted for online access, The complete model level data (2.4TB) must be sent using hard disks. Simulated observations. Some OSSE results Archive and Distribution Supplemental low resolution regular lat lon data Currently available from NCEP ftp server and 320GB disk 1degx1deg for T511 NR, 0.5degx0.5deg for T799 NR Pressure level data: 31 levels Potential temperature level data: 315,330,350,370,530K Selected time series for surface data : Convective precip, Large scale precip, MSLP,T2m,TD2m, U10,V10, HCC, LCC, MCC, TCC, Sfc Skin Temp

7. HL vortices: vertical structure Vertical structure of a HL vortex shows, even at the degraded resolution of 1 deg, a distinct eye-like feature and a very prominent warm core. These findings, albeit preliminary, are suggestive that the ECMWF NR simulates a realistic meteorology over tropical Africa and nearby Atlantic and may prove itself beneficial to OSSE research focused over the AMMA or the Atlantic Hurricane regions. Tropics Oreste Reale (NASA/GSFC/GLA)

9. Comparison between the ECMWF T511 Nature Run against climatology of observation 20050601-20060531, exp=eskb, cycle=31r1 Adrian Tompkins, ECMWF Total Precip NR vs. Xie Arkin TechMemo 452 Tompkins et al. (2004) Plot files are also posted at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/osse/NR/ECMWF_NR_Diag/ECMWF_T511_diag The description of the data http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/osse/NR/ECMWF_T511_diag/climplot_README.html NR Xie Arkin NR-Xie_Arkin Red: NR Black:Xie Arkin

10. T511 T799 Min MSLP T799 OCT05 period By Michiko Masutani Quick look using 1degree data

11. Convective Precipitation T511 T799 By Michiko Masutani Quick look using 1degree data 3 hour mean 12z-15Z Oct05 2005

12. T511 T799 Min MSLP T799 APR06 period By Michiko Masutani Quick look using 1degree data

13. T511 T799 Convective Precipitation in Spring By Michiko Masutani 01Z May 2, 2005 06Z Apr 25, 2006 Quick look using 3 hour mean 1degree data

15. OSSE using MM5 and WRF at NCAR Hans Huang et al OSSE for dry line and convective storms on June 11, 2002 Evaluation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) with high resolution temperature and moisture information One year project from January 2007-December 2007 Nature run: MM5 4km (500x500) 35 level Non Hydrostatic, Cloud resolving model Model:WRF 35 level Non Hydrostatic, Cloud resolving model 36km (57x57) and 4km (504x504) The results to be presented by Hans Huang in another meeting

16. High resolution data from GOESR is anticipated Development of GOESR proxy data simulation tool Preparation of CRTM toward GOESR Development of visualization tools On going work in Joint OSSE Simulation of GOES data for calibration (Tong Zhu) On going Meso OSSE? GOES-R interest

17. Current GOES vs. GOES-R Current GOES Imager IR band has 4 km horizontal resolution (FOV), GOES Sounder has 10 km resolution. A full disk scan has total 10,080,910 observation points, and takes about 26 min. GOES-R ABI sensor will has 1km/2 km resolution. GOES-R ABI Band Central Wavelength (μm) Current GOES Band 1 (blue)1 km0.47 2 (red)0.5 km0.6411 km 3 0.86 42 km1.38 51 km1.61 6 2 km 2.26 73.924 km 86.185 96.9534 km 107.34 118.5 129.61 1310.3544 km 1411.2 1512.35 (G08)4 km 1613.35 (G12)4 km GOES-R ABI vs. Current GOES Tong Zhu, Nov 1,2007

18. GOES EAST Observation Locations Reduced to ~20 km, 403239 pointsReduced to ~60 km, 40323 points A full disk scan has total 10,080,910 observation points for 4 km resolution Tong Zhu, Nov 1,2007

19. DBL91 dataset format -by Jack Woollen lon= 278.7000122 lat= 80.83999634 dt= -0.2498998642 ( 4 60 6 91 ).12513 iv=27 ! low vegetation cover.00000 iv=28 ! high vegetation cover 9.00000 iv=29 ! low vegetation type.00000 iv=30 ! high vegetation type.33050 31 Sea-ice cover [(0-1)].78305 32 Snow albedo [(0-1)].............75516 243 Forecast albedo [(0 - 1)].00120 244 Forecast surface roughness [m] -8.27367 245 Forecast log of surface roughness for heat pres(pa) cloud cov cloud ice cloud h2o ozone mmr tempature spf humid iv=248 iv=247 iv=246 iv=203 iv=130 iv=133.1000E+01.0000E+00.0000E+00.0000E+00.1410E-05.1946E+03.8109E-06.2990E+01.0000E+00.0000E+00.0000E+00.2750E-05.2135E+03.1356E-05.5684E+01.0000E+00.0000E+00.0000E+00.2489E-05.2273E+03.1967E-05.1015E+02.0000E+00.0000E+00.0000E+00.1856E-05.2396E+03.2716E-05.1716E+02.0000E+00.0000E+00.0000E+00.1442E-05.2502E+03.3463E-05.2768E+02.0000E+00.0000E+00.0000E+00.1559E-05.2569E+03.4011E-05.4285E+02.0000E+00.0000E+00.0000E+00.2007E-05.2581E+03.4109E-05.6396E+02.0000E+00.0000E+00.0000E+00.2480E-05.2550E+03.4110E-05 60 Variables 91 Levels Tong Zhu, Nov 1,2007

20. T511 NR: Hurricane at 1 October 2005 Tong Zhu, Nov 1,2007

21. NICAM Nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model Global cloud resolving model www.nicam.jp 3.5 km model integrations are done for one week (stop due to computing resource) 7 and14km model integrated for 100-200 days 40 levels

23. 26DEC2006 21:00 JST

24. 29DEC2006 09:00 JST

25. MTSAT ( 中澤さんより )

27. Results from preprint by Inoue is removed.

28. Global or Regional? Global analysis is performing better for regional forecast? (Mike Charles EMC seminar Nov 27) Influence of Global Teleconnection in a few days forecast Regional OSSEs can produce quick results for analysis and a few hours forecast evaluation within Local high resolution global model is an option

29. (4) T-PARC interests Global optimal positioning of “ observing ” systems in OSSE Improve forecast accuracy Yucheng Song Nov1,2007

30. Day 3-4 Radiosondes Russia Day 3-4 GEMS Driftsonde s Aerosonde s D 2-3 G-IV D 1-2 C-130 UAS D-1 UAS P-3 CONUS VR NA VR Day 5-6 Radiosonde s Tibet Extensive observational platforms during T-PARC winter phase allow us to track the potential storms and take additional observations as the perturbation propagate downstream into Arctic and US continents T-PARC PROPOSED OBSERVING PLATFORMS Yucheng Song Nov1,2007

31. Local high resolution global model Using Fibonacci grid

32. Requirement for the meso scale Nature run (sample suggestions) At least 3 month lower resolution run with same model is required to provide a period for spin up for bias correction. There will be very little or no noise for switching to higher resolution model. Must have a good TC or severe weather in the nature run period. Sufficient number of vertical levels. Minimum 91 levels. Some degree of coupling with ocean and land surface If it is regional, the effect of the lateral boundary must be evaluated. This could be a s large as data impact. Distinction between simulation of observation for OSSE and for visualization A list of verification method must be produced by Joint OSSE.

33. Nature run must demonstrate good forecast skill

34. Meso scale Nature run verification Sample Enegy spectrum Realistic Cloud distribution Realistic Cloud type Cyclone statistics Tropical waves Hurricane Warm core Max wind (Katrina 1mi average Convective cell