1. POLITICAL DEMOGRAPHY: Demographic Change and Global Futures Jack A. Goldstone December 13 Foreign Policy Research Institute

2. POPULATION MEGATRENDS 1.Big emerging markets and the world economy 2.Aging and shrinking workforces in the developed countries 3.Youth and Islam: The New face of the developing world 4.An Urban, not rural, world

3. Where will the People Be?

4. Global Labor Force Growth

6. Worker Growth vs. Elderly Growth

7. Increase in Older Folks in the US Population in Millions

9. Percentage of Population under 15 years old, 2005 Red: 40+ Pink: 30-39 Light Blue: 20-29 Dark Blue: <20

12. The Youth Surge in the Middle East (Ages 15-29) Youth 0.43 0.37 0.40 0.53 Bulge Millions

13. Muslim Growth in the World

14. Growth in Pop 15-44 age group

16. An Urban World

17. What are the Solutions? FLEXIBILITY – Retirement /Work/Education – Immigration and Emigration – Business start-up and innovation to find Market- based solutions MORE GLOBALIZATION – Open Trade and Human Exchange, New Urbanism – Have faith in European/Liberal Values – Globalization of Education!

18. What are We Doing About it? Investing in Education? No. Investing in Basic Research? No. Improving Energy Grid/Efficiency? No. Improving attraction to top migrants? No. Pulling together, sharing sacrifice? NO, NO, NO. Complaining about taxes, government, regulation? YES, YES, YES.