1. Habibullo I. Abdussamatov Habibullo I. Abdussamatov Pulkovo observatory of RAS, abduss@gao.spb.ru Pulkovo observatory of RAS, abduss@gao.spb.ruabduss@gao.spb.ru http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/index1_eng.html May 17, 2010 The Heartland Institute, USA May 17, 2010 The Heartland Institute, USA THE SUN DICTATES THE CLIMATE SOHO Image 2001/03/21

2. caused by the variations in the shape of the Earth orbit and in the direction of the rotational axis of the Earth — by Milankovitch cycles together with secondary subsequent feedback effects lead to the Big glacial periods (~100,000 years), established within the last 850,000 years (even if the solar luminosity L  remains constant). TSI is defined as S  = L  /4πA 2, where L  – the solar luminosity— the total energy of the Sun output L  – the solar luminosity — the total energy of the Sun output (per unit time) in the form of electromagnetic radiation, (per unit time) in the form of electromagnetic radiation, S  –average annual distance S  – the total solar irradiance at the average annual distance of the Earth orsolar constant, of the Earth or solar constant, A – the average annual distance between the Sun and the Earth. Significant variations in the average annual values of the total solar irradiance (TSI)

3. caused by the movement of the Sun in relation to the center of mass of the Solar Systemcorresponding variations in the average annualdistance between the Sun and the Earth lead to shorter slight variations in the climate (even if the solar luminosity L  remains constant). caused by the movement of the Sun in relation to the center of mass of the Solar System and corresponding variations in the average annual distance between the Sun and the Earth lead to shorter slight variations in the climate (even if the solar luminosity L  remains constant). The Earth and other planets are moving in relation to the center of mass of the Solar System. Slight variations in the average annual values of the TSI

4. caused by cyclic variations in the radius of the Sun together with secondary subsequent feedback effects led to 18 Little Ice Ages, established within the last 7500 years. Every time the TSI experienced its peak (up to 0.2%) a global warming began with a time lag of 15±6 years defined by the thermal inertia of the Ocean (despite the absence of anthropogenic influence) and each deep bicentennial descent in the TSI caused a Little Ice Age. The common sign of the cyclic bicentennial climate change is dependence of the average global temperature on both the direct influence of the bicentennial variation in the TSI (approximately in half) and (approximately in half) on the secondary subsequentfeedback effects (natural changes in the albedo, water vapour abundance, etc.) caused by it. The common sign of the cyclic bicentennial climate change is dependence of the average global temperature on both the direct influence of the bicentennial variation in the TSI (approximately in half) and (approximately in half) on the secondary subsequent feedback effects (natural changes in the albedo, water vapour abundance, etc.) caused by it. The influence of feedback effects introduces a kind of chain reaction growth into a climate change even if the growth of TSI ceases. Natural bicentennialvariations in the average annual Natural bicentennial variations in the average annual values of the TSI

5. The total solar irradiance is determined by the relationship: A cyclical change in the TSI is expressed thus: Such a change occurs as a result of the complex processes in the interior of the Sun. A smooth change in the temperature of surface layer leads to the disruption of hydrostatic equilibrium (the balance between internal pressure and gravity). Restoration of thermodynamic equilibrium can be achieved through a change in Restoration of thermodynamic equilibrium can be achieved through a change in the size of the Sun to that value which restores balance; specifically, restores the temperature of the surface to the previous level, such that ΔT eff = 0, thus the following relationship is valid: ΔR  = k·ΔS , where k = R  /2S  = 255 km/(Wm –2 ). Variations in the TSI occur as a result of fluctuations in the radius of the Sun with an amplitude of up to 250 km within the 11-year cycle, and up to 700 km within the bicentennial cycle.

6. The established rule: the bicentennial and 11-year cyclical variations in the TSI, sunspot activity and solar radius are synchronized and cross-correlated both in phase and amplitude allows one to use relatively short time series of the precision measurements of the TSI matching them to the prolonged series of the sunspot activity. It enables one to study the course of TSI during the past centuries and even millennia to match it to the corresponding climate changes in the past and to study its future variations. Cyclical variations of the solar activity being the accompanying phenomena of the physical processes occurring in the interior of the Sun don’t substantially affect both TSI and terrestrial climate.

7. Positive correlation between the solar radius and sunspot number variations in both phase and amplitude (1631–1973) from the analysis of internal contact timings for the transits of Mercury across the solar disk over 1631–1973 (Sveshnikov M.L. Astronomy Letters. 2002, 28, 115)

8. Dependence of 11-year solar activity cycles duration (for the cycles 10–23) on the phase of a bicentennial cycle ( – cycle 23) on the phase of a bicentennial cycle (  – cycle 23)

9. Variations in the TSI (daily data are taken from www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant ) www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant and sunspot number (monthly data taken from http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-data/ ) http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-data/ Average of the TSI for the cycle 23 is 0.17 Wm -2 less than for the cycle 22. The smoothed value of the TSI in the minima of the cycles 23/24 was 0.25 and 0.32Wm -2 less than in the minima of the cycles 22/23 and 21/22 respectively. 0.32 Wm -2 less than in the minima of the cycles 22/23 and 21/22 respectively.

10. We expect the beginning of the new Little Ice Age epoch approximately in 2014. Annual averageSIexperiences accelerated decrease 1990s. Annual average TSI experiences accelerated decrease since the 1990s. In 1998–2005 the Earth reached the maximum of the global warming.

11. TSI has reached its record for the last (at least) 700 years. TSI variations (using the reconstructed data: Lean J.L. Space Sci. Rev. 94, 39, 2000; Solanki S.K., Krivova N.A. Solar Phys. 224, 197, 2004; Avdyushin S.I., Danilov A.D. Geomagnetizm i aeronomiya. 40, 3, 2000) and solar activity variations since 1611 (http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-data/). http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-data/ The forecast of their changes after 2009 is shown by dash lines The forecast of their changes after 2009 is shown by dash lines (Abdussamatov H. I. The Sun dictates the climate of the Earth. 2009, St. Petersburg, “Logos”, –197 p.) (Abdussamatov H. I. The Sun dictates the climate of the Earth. 2009, St. Petersburg, “Logos”, – 197 p.)

12. The received solar energy has to be compensated by the energy that leaves the Earth for the climate to be stable. Any prolonged increase in the TSI remains uncompensated by the energy radiated by the Earth during 15±6years due to the thermal inertia of the Ocean. This leads to the sequential accumulation of the solar energy by the Ocean and to the gradual increase in the global temperature. Any prolonged increase in the TSI remains uncompensated by the energy radiated by the Earth during 15±6 years due to the thermal inertia of the Ocean. This leads to the sequential accumulation of the solar energy by the Ocean and to the gradual increase in the global temperature. Annual averageof the TSI experiences accelerated descent the 1990s. Annual average of the TSI experiences accelerated descent since the 1990s. We are going through the period of unstable variations when till the 2014 the global temperature will oscillate around the maximum reached in 1998-2005, then a new Little Ice Age will come. We expect the beginning of the new Little Ice Age epoch in 2014. In 2003-2005 I predicted a new deep minimum of both TSI and sunspot activity in 2042±11 with a deep global temperature minimum in 2055-2060(±11) and my predictions are looking better and better with each passing year.

13. The increase in the temperature causes the fall of albedo and the rise of the water vapour abundance etc. in the surface air. These changes lead to the additional chain reaction growth of the global temperature due to the sequential repeats of the mentioned changes. In the last quarter of the XX century the value of TSI changed insignificantly but due to the regular decrease in the albedo (since 1984 to 2000 (Pallé E. et al. Science. 2004, 304, 1299) ) and due to the rise of the water vapour abundance in the surface air caused by the global warming the global temperature continued to increase. That is why the climatic changes on the planet in the last quarter of the 20 th century were going on and on without a glance back of the 20 th century were going on and on without a glance back to the Sun.

14. The forecast of the natural climate change for the nearest 100 years

15. Regions with essential re-covering of water vapour and carbon dioxide spectral details. The changes in the concentrations of water vapour and carbon dioxide with height. It is obvious that water vapour concentration varies substantially with height. Even small increase in the average water vapour abundance can increase surface air concentration significantly. This leads to considerable changes in radiative transfer. Sensitivity of climate to carbon dioxide abundance dropped with the increase of water vapour concentration Abdussamatov H.I., Mushtukov A.A. (in press)

16. We have computed spectral changes with variable water vapour concentration within 7% and carbon dioxide abundance within350 to 420 ppm. Cloudiness was fixed in our calculations. We have computed spectral changes with variable water vapour concentration within 7% and carbon dioxide abundance within 350 to 420 ppm. Cloudiness was fixed in our calculations. We have found that climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide dropped with the increase of water vapour concentration. Abdussamatov H.I., Mushtukov A.A. (in press)

17. The well-known annual average global temperature (in relation to the temperature of 1961-1990) and carbon dioxide abundance in 1998-2008 and their expected variations in 2009-2015

18. Petit J.R. et al. // Nature, 1999. 399, 429; http//www.daviesand.com/Choices/Precautionary_Planning/New_Data/

19. We have developed the dedicated Russian-Ukrainian project Astrometria on the Russian Segment of ISS. The project will focus on the high precision photometric and coordinate measurements of temporal variations in the shape and diameter of the solar disc. The project will give us a possibility to measure the value of TSI and its temporal variations with a significantly higher precision during 6 years. The received data on TSI variations can be extrapolated to the past and future. If the Astrometria project is implemented in time, we will be able to develop a more precise forecast of the duration and depth of the approaching new Little Ice Age and to understand the reasons of cyclical changes taking place in the interior of the Sun and the ways they affect the Earth and various scopes of human activity.

21. Thus the long-term variations in the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth are the main and principal reasons driving and defining the whole mechanism of climatic changes from the global warmings to the Little Ice Ages and Big glacial periods. Resulting subsequent secondary feedback effects (natural changes in albedo, water vapour abundance, etc.) will additionally increase the global climate change by a value comparable to the effect of the incoming solar energy variations alone or even more (proportionally to the duration of these variations) even if the annual average of the incoming solar energy then remains constant for an extended period of time. The global warming in the Solar System excludes the responsibility of humans for the global warming observed on the Earth throughout the 20 th century.

22. The use of practically full identification of the climate changes with the variations in the incoming solar energy (taking into account their direct and subsequent secondary feedback influences) within a climate model gives a sufficiently precise reconstruction of climatic processes taking place in the past and nearest future. _____________ The climatic changes are not under the control of human and the climate changes are independent from behavior, actions and desires of the mankind. A reasonable way to combat these changes is to maintain economical growth in order to adapt to the upcoming new Little Ice Age in the middle of the XXI century.

23. Thank you for your attention