1. Hanoi, January 27th 2015 Rodolfo Soncini Sessa DEI – Politecnico di Milano IMRR Project 2 – Framing the system/problem INTEGRATED AND SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT OF RED-THAI BINH RIVER SYSTEM IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

2. The Design Problem (It)(It) scenario

3. The Policy control information feasible control set state policy (It)(It) control law

4. What is a policy? h 06-1508-21 110 101 110 u t w t h u w t1t1 t1t1 Time = t 1 flood supply Policy t2t2 Time = t 2 t2t2 t2t2 101 control law

5. Reservoirs policy = one cohordinated policy for the 4 reservoirs Policy: a function m t (I t ) that at each day t, given the information I t suggests the optimal release u t from the four strategic reservoirs.

6. The Design Objectives (It)(It) objective Evaluating the effects: indicators and criteria hierarchy To day 10:00 -11:00

7. The system model (It)(It) stateexogenous input Modeling the system 1-4 To day and tomorrow

8. Strategic reservoirs Hanoi

9. Scheme of RTBR system Hoa Binh proper inflow

10. Son La (Ta Bu) and Hoa Binh proper inflows a 2 t+1 = a HB t+1 - a 1 t Hoa Binh proper inflow Hoa Binh total inflow Son La inflow = Ta Bu Correlogram of Ta Bu and Hoa Binh recorded flows (1961-1988)

11. Head water recorded data Son La Hoa Binh prop. Yen Bay Thac Ba Ham Yen Tuyen Quang Historical horizon 1961 - 2010

12. Reconstruction of Thac Ba inflow

13. Scheme of RTBR system DELTA Hoa Binh proper inflow The Delta Model Tomorrow 9:00 -10:00

14. The boundary conditions of the Delta model Water demand

15. Minor river flows

16. The tide

17. Tyde patterns (Son Dong station) Diurnal Semi-diurnal

19. Center of mass of the Earth-Moon system

20. The tide

21. Tide pattern (at Hon Dau) Spring tyde Neap tyde

23. The intake points

25. Gravity channels

26. Nhue canal at the end of the wet season

27. Nhue canal when the irrigation demand peaks

29. A pump served by a suction tank

30. How important is the tyde?

31. Hystorical flows and tyde

32. Hystorical flows + no tyde

33. 2.3 meters at Hanoi + tyde

34. 2.3 meters at Hanoi + no tyde

35. Comparison 2.3 at Hanoi historical flow

36. Historical Flows + tyde Historical Flows + no tyde 2.3 m at Hanoi + tyde 2.3 m at Hanoi + no tyde 52 Mcm +45% 2 Mcm The tyde cannot be neglected

37. The scenario (It)(It) exogenous input scenario The scenario 29 th January

38. The Design Problem (It)(It) scenario

39. The system model in the Design Problem Modeling the system 4 Tomorrow 10:15 -11:15

40. The Design Problem (It)(It) scenario Design algorithm Tomorrow 11:15 -12:15

41. Thanks for your attention XIN CẢM ƠN

42. SPARCE SLIDES

43. ICT Tools yes Final (political) decision reasonable alternatives 2. Conceptualisation 3. Designing Alternatives 4. Estimating effects Stakeholders 1. Reconnaissance 5. Evaluation no Mitigation, and compensation, Agreement? PIP procedure PIP Participatory and Integrated Planning procedure 6. Comparison or negotiation Problem formulation Setting the goal and identifying the constraints Designing alternatives/options Selecting the best compromise alternative How to choose?