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John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Economic Growth... Building An Expansion.

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Presentation on theme: "John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Economic Growth... Building An Expansion."— Presentation transcript:

1 John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Economic Growth... Building An Expansion

2 After Losing 8.71 Million Jobs … U.S. Jobs All The Way Back & More

3 Petroleum Prices

4 Value of the Dollar

5 Consumer Confidence

6 California Job Gains/Losses 2008-2010 -1,066,400 Defense Cutbacks Dot.Com Great Recession 2011-2014 +1,301,708 2014 Up +235,308 Recovery +1.6%

7 California & U.S. Unemployment Rates

8 Highest Unemployment Rates Major U.S. Metro Areas

9 Where Is the IE In Its Job History? 2011-2014 131,976 of 143,108 lost or 92.2% 11,132 Jobs To Go

10 Primary Tier Secondary Tier Economic Development … Increase The Economic Base! How Regional Economies Work

11 Poverty Rates, 2013 Children Under 18 All People

12 High School or Less

13 BA or Higher

14 Construction & Real Estate: Real Hope

15 Share of Underwater Homes Plunging

16 Notices of Default At Low Levels (859 in December 2014)

17 Home Price Trends 71.0% 38.4% Above Existing Home -31.0% 2014,

18 Long Term Competitive Price Advantage Still Exists

19 Affordability to Median Income Household Inland Empire L.A./SD Orange.

20 Home Sales Volume Stagnant

21 All RespondentsLarge BanksOther Banks BanksPercentBanksPercentBanksPercent Tightened considerably000000 Tightened somewhat22.80025.6 Remained basically unchanged6083.327753391.7 Eased somewhat1013.992512.8 Eased considerably000000 Total721003610036100 Mortgage Credit Easing Very Little Credit standards on mortgage loans that your bank categorizes as prime residential mortgages have (October 2015):

22 Permits: Just A Little Hope

23 Why Low Volume Less Foreclosures Buyers Want or Need High Prices Credit Hurt By Foreclosures Higher FICO Scores FHA Lowering Conforming Mortgage Ceiling From $500,000 to $350,000 Fear Coming Help FHA Lowering PMI rates on conforming loans 1.35% to 0.85% Interest Rates Remaining Low FICO Scores Easing A Little

24 Why Home Construction’s Return Is Important 1,825 Jobs Lost 2007-2011: -68,433 Job Gain 2012-2014: 13,286 Job Deficit: -55,147

25 Inland Empire’s In-migration From Coastal Counties Has Not Recovered -25,278 Not Bringing Skills, Wealth, Income & Spending

26 SB County Assessed Valuation Growth

27 Assessed Valuation Growing Again Up from peak: 4.2% Inflation: 10.2%

28 Construction & Mining Job Growth Median Pay $51,923

29 Strong Industrial Growth

30 Industrial Construction

31 Logistics Flow of Goods

32 Port Container Volumes

33 Port Issues & Trade Diversion Potential Labor Difficulties Over Technology (PMA v. ILWU) Truck Chassises Teamsters & Independent Owner Operators Panama Canal Rising Value of the Dollar

34 Fulfillment Centers

35 E-Commerce Growth Rates Year Over Year by Quarter

36 Logistics Job Growth & Why It Is Important 18.8% of All Inland Jobs in 2013 15.5% in 2014 Median Pay $43,911

37 CARB: Diesel Pollution Is Disappearing Exhibit 6.-PM 2.5 Days over National Standard vs. Total Square Feet of Net Industrial Absorption Since Highest PM2.5 level Monitoring Sites Mira Loma-Van Buren Riverside- Magnolia Riverside- Rubidoux Fontana-Arrow Highway Ontario-1408 Francis Street San Bernardino- 4th Street 2001 120.258.279.580.8 2002 88.492.673.767.488.9 2003 69.778.154.362.255.2 2004 *47.857.3*** 2005 **39.722.925.39.3 2006 46.231.3*27.2** 2007 43.4***** 2008 *12.415.019.319.49.5 2009 19.06.015.16.29.06.2 2010 8.06.34.06.63.25.9 2011 13.07.15.07.16.8* 2012 7.0* 10.60.0 2013 9.23.06.23.00.03.3 Change From Highest -37.0-85.4-114.0-70.7-79.5-85.6 Change -80.1%-96.6%-94.8%-95.9%-100.0%-96.3% Net Absorptiont Since Highest 101,204,114198,737,217244,793,404198,737,217244,793,404198,737,217

38 Manufacturing: Could Be A Major Growth Source

39 U.S. Manufacturing Job Growth 7-Times Faster Than California

40 Manufacturing Non-Job Growth! Median Pay $48,923

41 Causes of Public Health Difficulties 1.Socio-Economics 40% 2.Population’s Health Behaviors30% 3.Access to Medical Care20% 4.Environmental 10% Source: Different Perspectives For Assigning Weights To Determinants of Health, University of Wisconsin, Public Health Institute, 2010 90%

42 What is Needed To Attack Poverty? Short Course Adult Training in Specific Skills 1.Business Determined Sectors 2.Business Established Certifications & Speed of Training 3.Business Willingness to Give Hiring Preference Sectors With Few Education Barriers to Entry Median Incomes Approaching Middle Class Earnings Skill Ladders Up Which Workers Can Move To Median Incomes Sectors That Are Adding Jobs

43 Median Incomes Near To Middle Class Needs, Minimum Entry Level Requirements Middle Class Earnings, Minimum Skills To Enter

44 Issue Fundamentally: Blue Collar Sector Growth Needed To Allow Marginally Educated To Access the Middle Class Manufacturing Logistics Construction Mining, Oil & Gas Training Needed To Allow Advancement In These Fields EPA-AQMD Standards Eliminating Ability of these Sectors to Grow Poverty is Exacerbated as a Result!

45 Health Care

46 People Per Health Care Worker 28.9%

47 Inland Empire Underserved

48 Health Care Demand Set To Explode People Without Health Insurance (2013) 836,689 (19.7, 19.0%) People Will Age, Already 55 & Over 962,260 (23.3%, 20.5%) Population Growth Will Resume (2000-2013) 734,580 (47.5%) 375,530 (22.0%) Inland Health Care Workers Handle More People Than CA (28%) Difficulty: Infrastructure of Training Para-Professionals

49 ACS Enrollment Statistics: Inland Empire Source: Covered California www.coveredca.com Inland Empire represents 8.8% of CA enrollment CaliforniaInland Empire Non-Subsidized 173,609 12,428 Subsidy Eligible1,222,320110,543 Total1,395,929122,971 Oct. 1, 2013 through Mar.31, 2014 123,000 Website 300,000 MediCal 423,000 Total

50 Health Care Job Growth … Modest! Median Pay $55,475

51 Skilled Workers Skilled Workers Migrate Inland For Better Homes

52 Higher End Homes $585,199 $427,095 $484,914 UPLAND EASTVALE $468,269 $465,778 $459,000 CORONA $429,667 TEMECULA $344,095$393,603 $357,027 $345,243 Loma Linda $568,700 Claremont

53 Migration of Educated Workers

54 Office Absorption Follows Higher-End Workers High-End Jobs Follow Workers into the Area

55 Office Vacancy Rates Improving But Still Very High 17.0% 24.0%

56 Office Based Job Growth

57 High Income Private Sector Office Jobs

58 Primary Tier Secondary Tier How Regional Economies Work

59 2014 Retail Sales Head For 6.1% Above Pre-Recession Peak 15.2% Inflation

60 Job Growth: Population Serving Jobs

61 Where Is the IE In Its Job History? 2011-2014 131,976 of 143,108 lost or 92.2% 11,132 Jobs To Go

62 Job Growth By Market Area, June 2013-2014

63 Forecast: Review 2015 Better Than 2014 Construction Returning Logistics Strong Manufacturing Weak Health Care Set To Take-Off Office Sectors Modest Pop. Related Group Gaining Education Growing Government Crawling Unemployment Drops to 7.9% Growth Looking Normal 11,132 Jobs Below Pre-Recession

64 www.johnhusing.com


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