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John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Economic Growth... Building An Expansion
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After Losing 8.71 Million Jobs … U.S. Jobs All The Way Back & More
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Petroleum Prices
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Value of the Dollar
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Consumer Confidence
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California Job Gains/Losses 2008-2010 -1,066,400 Defense Cutbacks Dot.Com Great Recession 2011-2014 +1,301,708 2014 Up +235,308 Recovery +1.6%
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California & U.S. Unemployment Rates
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Highest Unemployment Rates Major U.S. Metro Areas
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Where Is the IE In Its Job History? 2011-2014 131,976 of 143,108 lost or 92.2% 11,132 Jobs To Go
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Primary Tier Secondary Tier Economic Development … Increase The Economic Base! How Regional Economies Work
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Poverty Rates, 2013 Children Under 18 All People
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High School or Less
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BA or Higher
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Construction & Real Estate: Real Hope
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Share of Underwater Homes Plunging
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Notices of Default At Low Levels (859 in December 2014)
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Home Price Trends 71.0% 38.4% Above Existing Home -31.0% 2014,
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Long Term Competitive Price Advantage Still Exists
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Affordability to Median Income Household Inland Empire L.A./SD Orange.
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Home Sales Volume Stagnant
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All RespondentsLarge BanksOther Banks BanksPercentBanksPercentBanksPercent Tightened considerably000000 Tightened somewhat22.80025.6 Remained basically unchanged6083.327753391.7 Eased somewhat1013.992512.8 Eased considerably000000 Total721003610036100 Mortgage Credit Easing Very Little Credit standards on mortgage loans that your bank categorizes as prime residential mortgages have (October 2015):
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Permits: Just A Little Hope
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Why Low Volume Less Foreclosures Buyers Want or Need High Prices Credit Hurt By Foreclosures Higher FICO Scores FHA Lowering Conforming Mortgage Ceiling From $500,000 to $350,000 Fear Coming Help FHA Lowering PMI rates on conforming loans 1.35% to 0.85% Interest Rates Remaining Low FICO Scores Easing A Little
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Why Home Construction’s Return Is Important 1,825 Jobs Lost 2007-2011: -68,433 Job Gain 2012-2014: 13,286 Job Deficit: -55,147
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Inland Empire’s In-migration From Coastal Counties Has Not Recovered -25,278 Not Bringing Skills, Wealth, Income & Spending
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SB County Assessed Valuation Growth
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Assessed Valuation Growing Again Up from peak: 4.2% Inflation: 10.2%
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Construction & Mining Job Growth Median Pay $51,923
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Strong Industrial Growth
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Industrial Construction
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Logistics Flow of Goods
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Port Container Volumes
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Port Issues & Trade Diversion Potential Labor Difficulties Over Technology (PMA v. ILWU) Truck Chassises Teamsters & Independent Owner Operators Panama Canal Rising Value of the Dollar
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Fulfillment Centers
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E-Commerce Growth Rates Year Over Year by Quarter
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Logistics Job Growth & Why It Is Important 18.8% of All Inland Jobs in 2013 15.5% in 2014 Median Pay $43,911
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CARB: Diesel Pollution Is Disappearing Exhibit 6.-PM 2.5 Days over National Standard vs. Total Square Feet of Net Industrial Absorption Since Highest PM2.5 level Monitoring Sites Mira Loma-Van Buren Riverside- Magnolia Riverside- Rubidoux Fontana-Arrow Highway Ontario-1408 Francis Street San Bernardino- 4th Street 2001 120.258.279.580.8 2002 88.492.673.767.488.9 2003 69.778.154.362.255.2 2004 *47.857.3*** 2005 **39.722.925.39.3 2006 46.231.3*27.2** 2007 43.4***** 2008 *12.415.019.319.49.5 2009 19.06.015.16.29.06.2 2010 8.06.34.06.63.25.9 2011 13.07.15.07.16.8* 2012 7.0* 10.60.0 2013 9.23.06.23.00.03.3 Change From Highest -37.0-85.4-114.0-70.7-79.5-85.6 Change -80.1%-96.6%-94.8%-95.9%-100.0%-96.3% Net Absorptiont Since Highest 101,204,114198,737,217244,793,404198,737,217244,793,404198,737,217
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Manufacturing: Could Be A Major Growth Source
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U.S. Manufacturing Job Growth 7-Times Faster Than California
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Manufacturing Non-Job Growth! Median Pay $48,923
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Causes of Public Health Difficulties 1.Socio-Economics 40% 2.Population’s Health Behaviors30% 3.Access to Medical Care20% 4.Environmental 10% Source: Different Perspectives For Assigning Weights To Determinants of Health, University of Wisconsin, Public Health Institute, 2010 90%
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What is Needed To Attack Poverty? Short Course Adult Training in Specific Skills 1.Business Determined Sectors 2.Business Established Certifications & Speed of Training 3.Business Willingness to Give Hiring Preference Sectors With Few Education Barriers to Entry Median Incomes Approaching Middle Class Earnings Skill Ladders Up Which Workers Can Move To Median Incomes Sectors That Are Adding Jobs
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Median Incomes Near To Middle Class Needs, Minimum Entry Level Requirements Middle Class Earnings, Minimum Skills To Enter
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Issue Fundamentally: Blue Collar Sector Growth Needed To Allow Marginally Educated To Access the Middle Class Manufacturing Logistics Construction Mining, Oil & Gas Training Needed To Allow Advancement In These Fields EPA-AQMD Standards Eliminating Ability of these Sectors to Grow Poverty is Exacerbated as a Result!
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Health Care
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People Per Health Care Worker 28.9%
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Inland Empire Underserved
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Health Care Demand Set To Explode People Without Health Insurance (2013) 836,689 (19.7, 19.0%) People Will Age, Already 55 & Over 962,260 (23.3%, 20.5%) Population Growth Will Resume (2000-2013) 734,580 (47.5%) 375,530 (22.0%) Inland Health Care Workers Handle More People Than CA (28%) Difficulty: Infrastructure of Training Para-Professionals
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ACS Enrollment Statistics: Inland Empire Source: Covered California www.coveredca.com Inland Empire represents 8.8% of CA enrollment CaliforniaInland Empire Non-Subsidized 173,609 12,428 Subsidy Eligible1,222,320110,543 Total1,395,929122,971 Oct. 1, 2013 through Mar.31, 2014 123,000 Website 300,000 MediCal 423,000 Total
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Health Care Job Growth … Modest! Median Pay $55,475
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Skilled Workers Skilled Workers Migrate Inland For Better Homes
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Higher End Homes $585,199 $427,095 $484,914 UPLAND EASTVALE $468,269 $465,778 $459,000 CORONA $429,667 TEMECULA $344,095$393,603 $357,027 $345,243 Loma Linda $568,700 Claremont
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Migration of Educated Workers
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Office Absorption Follows Higher-End Workers High-End Jobs Follow Workers into the Area
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Office Vacancy Rates Improving But Still Very High 17.0% 24.0%
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Office Based Job Growth
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High Income Private Sector Office Jobs
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Primary Tier Secondary Tier How Regional Economies Work
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2014 Retail Sales Head For 6.1% Above Pre-Recession Peak 15.2% Inflation
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Job Growth: Population Serving Jobs
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Where Is the IE In Its Job History? 2011-2014 131,976 of 143,108 lost or 92.2% 11,132 Jobs To Go
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Job Growth By Market Area, June 2013-2014
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Forecast: Review 2015 Better Than 2014 Construction Returning Logistics Strong Manufacturing Weak Health Care Set To Take-Off Office Sectors Modest Pop. Related Group Gaining Education Growing Government Crawling Unemployment Drops to 7.9% Growth Looking Normal 11,132 Jobs Below Pre-Recession
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www.johnhusing.com
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