1. The Transition to High School: Initial HS Experiences and 9 th Grade Failure Jerald R. Herting October 19 th UW-BHS Project Workshop

2. So why be concerned about the initial 9 th grade experience?

3. 9 th Grade Facts 16% of first time 9 th graders have GPA < 1 16% of first time 9 th graders have GPA < 1 37% have GPA below 2.037% have GPA below 2.0 35% of all students fail at least one class during first semester of 9 th grade 35% of all students fail at least one class during first semester of 9 th grade Prevalent across all student subgroupsPrevalent across all student subgroups 9 th Grade downturn is experienced across a spectrum of 8 th grade performance (i.e. not just the past poor performers) 9 th Grade downturn is experienced across a spectrum of 8 th grade performance (i.e. not just the past poor performers) 9 th Grade GPA is major predictor of high school completion 9 th Grade GPA is major predictor of high school completion

4. A place for policy and intervention Understanding the risks and processes of success and failure identify what can be changed Understanding the risks and processes of success and failure identify what can be changed Intervention programs/initiatives have targeted features of this transition and it is worthwhile to examine these program effects Intervention programs/initiatives have targeted features of this transition and it is worthwhile to examine these program effects To what degree are targeted features related to 9 th grade success or failureTo what degree are targeted features related to 9 th grade success or failure

5. Transition to High School Study 9 th grade survey of students 9 th grade survey of students ~ 65 question ‘pencil and paper’ survey of all 9 th graders~ 65 question ‘pencil and paper’ survey of all 9 th graders Conducted 6 th week of classes—prior to quarter gradesConducted 6 th week of classes—prior to quarter grades Educational experiences and expectationsEducational experiences and expectations 8 th grade survey of teachers 8 th grade survey of teachers All 8 th grade teachers evaluate the likelihood that the student will have academic or behavioral problems or be at risk of dropping out in high school.All 8 th grade teachers evaluate the likelihood that the student will have academic or behavioral problems or be at risk of dropping out in high school. School records School records Match school records (grades, etc) & surveysMatch school records (grades, etc) & surveys Coverage (Year 2004 and 2005) Coverage (Year 2004 and 2005) Response rate ~71% for students enrolled in district for 8 th and 9 th gradesResponse rate ~71% for students enrolled in district for 8 th and 9 th grades

6. Making the transition

7. Theoretical Model

8. Intervention Model

9. Key features of initial 9 th grade experience Preparedness (lack of) Preparedness (lack of) 4 items 4 items “I find it difficult to be ready for class“ “I find it difficult to be ready for class“ Achievement Orientation Achievement Orientation 1 item 1 item “How far would you like to go in school” “How far would you like to go in school” School Engagement/Attachment School Engagement/Attachment 7 items 7 items “I think that it is important to have a high grade point average” “I think that it is important to have a high grade point average”

10. Some descriptive bivariate relations Risk and Family SES Risk and Family SES 8 th grade performance 8 th grade performance Initial experience in HS Initial experience in HS

11. 9 th Grade 1 st Semester GPA by Gender *Statistically significant difference at the.01 level

12. 9 th Grade 1 st Semester GPA by Family Intactness *Statistically significant difference at the.01 level

13. 9 th Grade 1 st Semester GPA by 8 th Grade GPA 8 th GPA: Median = 2.95 Mean = 2.79 *Statistically significant difference at the.01 level

14. 9 th Grade 1 st Semester GPA by Student Academic Orientation: Educational Expectations *Statistically significant difference at the.01 level

15. 9 th Grade 1 st Semester GPA by Student Academic Preparation: Perception of Workload in 9 th grade *Statistically significant difference at the.01 level Note: A high value on scale indicates difficult workload

16. 9 th Grade 1 st Semester GPA by Student Academic Engagement Scale *Statistically significant difference at the.01 level

17. Multivariate Analysis—Part One

18. What predicts initial HS experiences Preparedness (lack of) Preparedness (lack of) 8 th grade performance, ethnicity, gender, parental education8 th grade performance, ethnicity, gender, parental education Achievement Orientation Achievement Orientation 8 th grade performance, ethnicity, gender, parental education, low SES8 th grade performance, ethnicity, gender, parental education, low SES Engagement Engagement 8 th grade performance, ethnicity, parental education8 th grade performance, ethnicity, parental education

19. Multivariate Analysis—Part Two

20. Predicting 9 th Grade GPA Effectp-value Predictors:* 8 th grade GPA.72.00 Initial High School Experience Preparedness (lack of)-.26.00 Orientation.04.00 Engagement.20.00 R-square.61 *controls for gender, ethnicity, parental education, SES, family structure, and cohort

21. Discussion/Summary Direct impact of initial HS experience Direct impact of initial HS experience Preparedness, orientation, engagement all affect 9 th grade performancePreparedness, orientation, engagement all affect 9 th grade performance Continued effects of past achievement Continued effects of past achievement Continued effects of background Continued effects of background

22. Strategic Intervention

23. Next steps Explore the role of school context Explore the role of school context Effects of initiatives at middle schoolsEffects of initiatives at middle schools Effects of WSAEffects of WSA Presence of scholarship Presence of scholarship Restructuring of HS Restructuring of HS Two features to explore Two features to explore Do such initiatives add directly to prevent failure/encourage achievementDo such initiatives add directly to prevent failure/encourage achievement Do they enhance effects of initial HS experienceDo they enhance effects of initial HS experience

24. Thanks to--- BHS study group BHS study group Nick Pharris-Ciurej and Patty Glynn for providing assistance with data and analysis Nick Pharris-Ciurej and Patty Glynn for providing assistance with data and analysis Joe Willhoft and Robin Munson for initial help in starting the 9 th grade project Joe Willhoft and Robin Munson for initial help in starting the 9 th grade project Tacoma Public Schools Tacoma Public Schools

26. 9 th Grade 1 st Semester GPA by Race/Ethnicity *A statistically significant difference exists between this and all other groups Median 3.05 Median 2.12 Median 2.19 Median 1.92 Median 2.78

27. Predicting 9 th Grade GPA Effectp-value Predictors: Constant-.32.09 Year entered HS.04.09 Female (male reference).07.01 Asian.12.00 African American-.18.00 Hispanic-.13.02 Native American (white reference)-.14.17 Parental Education (years).01.05 Low SES-.25.00 Non-Intact Family-.10.00 8 th grade GPA.72.00 Initial High School Experience Preparedness (perceived high workload)-.26.00 Orientation.04.00 Engagement.20.00 R-square.61