1. Air Quality Forecasting in China using a regional model Bas Mijling Ronald van der A Henk Eskes Hennie Kelder

2. Overview Overview CHIMERE model Emissions First validation results Future steps AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

3. Processes taken into account evening noon morning VOC NOx VOC NOx VOC Deposition Winds limit layer FREE TROPOSPHERE 100 m Temperature 2000 m Winds altitude MIXING LAYER hv Inversion AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

4. Overview Chimere output CHIMERE ECMWF meteo MELCHIOR scheme 44 species 120 reactions INTEX-B 2006 inventory GLGC database 1 x 1 km² emissions monthly averages gas phase: LMDZ-INCA2 aerosol: GOCART boundary conditions end field of previous simulation initial field landuse chemistry AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008 Resolution 0.25 x 0.25 degree 8 horizontal layers Hourly concentrations of 44 gases and aerosols

5. Domain of Chimere AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

6. Domain of Chimere AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

7. INTEX-B Emissions by Qiang Zhang and David Streets AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

8. Emission comparison INTEX-B 2006 East Asia, 0.5×0.5 degree Sectors (4)pollutants Power Industry Residential Transportation NOx SOx CO VOC (30) PM10 PM2.5 BC OC EMEP 1990-2004 Europe, 50×50 km Sectors (11)pollutants Combustion in energy and transform. ind. Non-industrial combustion plants Combustion in manufacturing industry Production processes Extraction/distribution of fossil fuels Solvent and other product use Road transport Other mobile sources and machinery Waste treatment and disposal Agriculture NOx SOx CO NH3 NMVOC PM10 PM2.5 POPs (8) Heavy metals (5) AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

9. Validation Ground measurements Beijing Daily mean 12 pm-12pm of 7-10 stations Surface concentration NO 2, SO 2, PM 10 http://www.bjee.org.cn/api/ index.php?stat=month Shanghai Daily mean 12 pm-12pm of n stations Surface concentration NO 2, SO 2, PM 10 http://www.envir.online.sh.cn/ airnews/index.asp Hong Kong Hourly data for 14 stations Surface concentration NO 2, SO 2, O 3, CO, PM 10 http://www.epd-asg.gov.hk/ english/24pollu/ pc_24station.php Satellite measurements OMI Daily at local overpass time 13h Tropospheric NO 2 column http://www.temis.nl AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

10. Comparison with Beijing AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008 Preliminary!

11. Comparison with Hong Kong AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008 Preliminary!

12. Comparison with OMI Preliminary! AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

13. Validation conclusions With OMI: –Order of magnitude looks OK –Main features correspond –“Phantom” source at Xian in Chimere With ground measurements: –Time series correlate reasonable, but not perfect –Overestimation NO 2 for Beijing ► More debugging and validation to be done! AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

14. Timezone bug GMT+0 GMT+24GMT+48GMT+72GMT+96 Anthropogenic emissions for Beijing (GMT+8) should include offset AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

15. Future steps (1) Emission Database –improved implementation of INTEX-B –spatial disaggregation for higher resolution (by VITO) –implementing realistic diurnal and weekly cycles –scaling emissions with satellite observations Boundary conditions from global model Feedback from other groups (aerosols, desert dust,…) Validation –comparison NO 2, O 3, CO, PM10 with hourly ground measurements –further comparison NO 2 with OMI satellite instrument AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

16. Future steps (2) Nesting AURORA model over Beijing in Chimere (by VITO) Investigating the quality of the forecast How do the air quality measures during the Olympics affect the emissions? AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

17. Thank you Brilliant City, Shanghai