1. Part 2 Foresight studies
Practice and Methods that support them

2. Why is the Practice to have a framework for designing foresight studies?
Contextual Issues
providing advice regarding the organisation, running and implementation of Foresight Programmes
Countries using (or wishing to use) foresight methodologies are:
culturally different
at different socio-economic stages of development
Assumption that there is always more than one ‘good way’ to do things

3. Elements of Forming a Foresight programme
Coalition building
Sponsorship
Objectives
Scope of the programme
Research elements and methods
Reflexivity
Resources
Level of the programme
Type of intervention
Outcomes

4. Essential timing steps
The discussion of the elements of a Foresight Programme should be conducted in the context of three points in time:
Its initiation
Execution
Implementation of its results

5. Notional process

6. The methods scene Orientation Normative Exploratory Nature Qualitative
Semi-quantitative
Quantitative
Essence
Evidence-based
Expertise-based
Creativity-based
Interaction-based

7. Methods in context Foresight methods:
expert assumptions
subjective judgements
tacit knowledge
are borrowed and adapted from elsewhere
Methods you think you know...
Methods you think
you don’t know…
Methods you don’t know
you don’t know…

8. But remember: Wittgenstein who said in 1953 that:
“methods pass the problem by”

9. Methods may be: Qualitative Quantitative Semi-Quantitative NUSAP
Relying on opinion
Quantitative
Numerical and statistical data
Analyses and processing of databases, indicators
Semi-Quantitative
Mathematical or statistical principles to process subjective knowledge
Examples:
weighting ideas, judgements
NUSAP
Number; Units: Spread; Assessment; Pedigree

10. The foresight triangle
The Foresight Triangle, as it is also known, became very popular among Foresight practitioners because of the user-friendliness and simplicity of the framework.
Especially because it helps people to understand that certain proportion of creativity, expertise and interaction need to be combined in the process.
But …

11. There’s more to it …. The diamond
Creativity
Evidence helps creativity and challenges expertise..
The Diamond makes it easier to classify widely used methods such as literature review and scanning, for example.
The Foresight Diamond
Expertise
Interaction
Evidence-based activities, such as technology assessment, technology watch, benchmarking, patent analysis and bibliometrics, should form the forth pole
Scanning
Literature review
Evidence

12. The whole picture Creativity Expertise Interaction Evidence
Wild cards
Science fiction
Gaming-simulation
Essays / Scenario writing
Genius forecasting
Role Play/Acting
Backcasting
Brainstorming
Relevance trees / Logic charts
Scenario workshop
Roadmapping
Delphi
SWOT analysis
Citizen Panels
Expertise
Expert Panels
Morphological analysis
Conferences / Seminars
Interaction
Key/Critical technologies
Multi-criteria
Voting / Polling
Quantitative Scenarios/SMIC
Stakeholders Mapping
Interviews
Benchmarking
Cross-impact
Modelling
System/Structural analysis
Bibliometrics
Patent analysis
Extrapolation
Scanning
Literature review
Indicators
Qualitative (17)
Semi-quantitative (10)
Evidence
Quantitative (6)
R. Popper (2006)

13. Exploratory & Normative
Based on what we know Today
Exploring Possible Futures
Examples:
Conventional Delphi
Conventional Scenario Workshops
Cross-impact analysis
Trend extrapolation
Normative
Based on what we want/desire for the Future
Planning how to get there from Today
Goals Delphi
Success Scenario workshops
Relevance trees, morphological analysis and roadmapping

15. Brainstorming
A creative and interactive face-to-face and online group working session to generate:
new ideas
around a specific area of interest
to remove inhibitions and allow people to think more freely
It is key component of foresight: it’s extremely flexible :
The steps are:
Sharing and exchanging views by the group of people
Gathering the ideas as they arise without being criticised or further elaborated
all ideas are discussed and clustered into categories