1. GEOGLAM Update Brad Doorn
© GEO Secretariat

2. ($/Metric Ton) Source: World Bank
Context for GEOGLAM
Monthly Wheat Prices
($/Metric Ton) Source: World Bank
Nominal wheat price in US $/metric Ton
2008 Price hikes
Droughts:
Australia & Ukraine
2010/11 Price hikes
Drought:
Russia
Landsat 1 Launched (1972)
1971/2’s price hike

3. Assessment of Current Conditions in Northern Hemisphere
Crop NDVI Anomaly, August 13th, 2012
USA
Russia
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
China
India
Canada
Worse than normal
normal
Better than normal
Crop NDVI Anomaly
Non Cropland
Not shown
anomaly
Russia, Orenburg
Spring Wheat
Winter Wheat/ Corn
Corn/
Soy
NDVI
Current season crop development (2012)
Average season development ( )

4. Comparing the 2012 Black Sea Region Drought to the 2010 Drought
Crop NDVI Anomaly July 17, 2012
Current drought affecting crop production in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Bulgaria and Romania
Crop NDVI Anomaly During the 2010 Russian Drought: (July )
Vegetation Anomaly during the 2010 Russian drought, when grain production decreased by 30%

5. Looking Forward Agriculture Faces Major Challenges in this Century
Increasing pressures on agricultural land and production from:
Increased severe weather events and climate change
Population growth & Changing diets
Fuel vs. Food vs. Feed
Limited water and suitable arable land
Higher price volatility for major grains
Crop yield variability is a main driver of short term changes in market equilibrium
Weather/climatic effects on production are triggers for price hikes
Commodity markets are increasingly linked (good and bad)
Rising fuel prices impact food prices (transport, fertilizer)
NEED TO INCREASE GLOBAL PRODUCTION BY 70% BY 2050 TO MEET DEMAND (FAO)
 Tools for monitoring and reliably forecasting production are essential for anticipating market imbalances and enhancing policy responses

6. Need for Improved Agricultural Intelligence
International recognition of critical need for improved information including at the World Summit on Food Security 2009, G20 Action Plan on Food Price Volatility and Agriculture, 2011
official statement of The Extraordinary Joint Intersessional meeting of the Intergovernmental Group (IGG/FAO) on Grains, Rome 2010:
“Unexpected price hikes and volatility are amongst
major threats to food security and their root causes
need to be addressed, in particular regarding the lack
of reliable and up-to-date information on crop supply
and demand and export availability….”

7. The G20 Initiative: GEO-GLAM
The G20 Cannes Summit (November 2011) Action Plan on Food Price Volatility and Agriculture
Reaffirmed GEOGLAM commitment at the 2012 G-20 Los Cabos Declaration & in Agriculture Ministers Report

8. G20 GEOGLAM Goal:
To strengthen the international community’s capacity to produce and disseminate relevant, timely and accurate forecasts of agricultural production at national, regional and global scales through the use of EO
Outcome: an improved and more harmonized systems of systems taking advantage of new satellite assets and a higher level of international coordination
GEO-GLAM will be implemented in the framework of GEO

9. The GEOGLAM Initiative: Project Elements
1. GLOBAL/ REGIONAL
SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS
Main producer countries, main crops
2. NATIONAL CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT
for agricultural monitoring using Earth Observation
3. MONITORING COUNTRIES AT RISK
Food security assessment
4. EO DATA COORDINATION (acquisition, availability, access)
5. METHOD IMPROVEMENT through R&D coordination
6. INFORMATION DISSEMINATION of Data and Products

10. GEOGLAM Components Component 1: Monitoring Global Producer Countries
Focus: Global markets and trade, long term trends (climate change implications, extreme events etc)
Component 2: National Monitoring Systems
Focus: National statistics, national policy, subsidies, insurance
Component 3: Countries at Risk
Focus: Early warning & food security
Component 4: Observations Coordination
Focus on acquisition, availability, access needed for GEOGLAM implementation
Component 5: R&D
Focus: Best practices, RTO (JECAM)
Component 6: Information dissemination

11. 4. EO DATA COORDINATION (acquisition, availability, access)
Goal: secure the data needed to implement GEOGLAM
GEOGLAM has substantive observation data needs which underpin its implementation
Approach: work in close partnership with CEOS to
Lay out the overall program observation requirements to enable the necessary information products to be generated, building on the experience with FCT and GFOI

12. Cropping systems are inherently diverse which dictates the monitoring observations and methods

13. Observation Strategy Components
Where?
Priority given to G20 Producer Countries (main crops) and Countries at Risk
Initial focus on Arable Lands and Major Crops –subsequent expansion to pasture/rangelands
When?
Growing season as defined by crop calendars
How often?
Determined by crop calendars – emphasis on forecasting early in the growing season
The need for cloud free observations impacts frequency
Microwave data acquisition for persistently cloudy areas

15. GEOGLAM CEOS Workshop
CSA hosted a CEOS-GEOGLAM user data requirements workshop in June 2012 with representatives from both GEOGLAM and CEOS
Goal: to communicate the GEOGLAM data needs for effective global agricultural monitoring and to and initiate a process by which those requirements can be translated into operational data acquisition
Progress and meeting outcomes: to be presented in Yves Crevier presentation

16. The GEOGLAM Initiative: 2011-2012 Progress
International cooperation for the definition of GEOGLAM
09/2011 Geneva : First GEOGLAM international Workshop (13 countries)
11/2011 Istanbul : GEO VI Plenary Assembly
01/2012 Geneva : GEOGLAM coord. Group meeting
02/2012 Rome : Present to the 1st meeting of the AMIS coord. Group
02/2012 Canberra : International Workshop on crop monitoring
03/2012 Mexico : Present. to XIIth “Foro de expectativas agropecuarias”
03/2012 La Hoya : CEOS Strategic Implementation Team
04/2012 Tokyo : GEOSS in the Asian Pacific Symposium
4/2012 Mexico: G20 Ag Ministers preparation meeting
4/2012 Italy: Sentinel 2 workshop
5/2012 Geneva: GEO Workplan Meeting
6/2012 Mexico City: Meeting with SIAP (Min of Ag)
7/2012 Montreal: CEOS-GEOGLAM data requirements workshop
9/2012 Buenos Aires: Regional Ag monitoring systems workshop
10/2012 Beijing: Drought Monitoring Workshop
+ regional and national meetings and presentations
+ EU FP-7 Call for GEOGLAM proposal (Ag and Environment) 9 Million Euro