1. Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Local Probabilistic Weather Predictions for Switzerland Vanessa Stauch Offenbach, September 2009 COSMO General Meeting

2. 2 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch motivation for local prob. forecasts OptiControl project: stochastic model predictive control of indoor climate wind power prediction for electricity market

3. 3 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch COSMO-LEPS spatial spread COSMO-LEPS mean spread, lead time 24h, May 2008 COSMO-LEPS mean spread, lead time 123h, May 2008

4. 4 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch Swiss met. measurement network 72 stations

5. 5 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch COSMO-LEPS calibration potential 5 th & 95 th spatial percentile bias correction potential spread correction potential T2M for Swiss stations (03.2008-02.2009)

6. 6 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch COSMO-LEPS calibration potential wanted: bias and spread calibration 5 th & 95 th spatial percentile bias correction potential spread correction potential FF10M for Swiss stations (03.2008-02.2009)

7. 7 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch bias calibration with Kalman Filter error model: states evolution: prediction: with error : ^ ^ apply this to ensemble median and correct all member equally

8. 8 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch calibration with COSMO-LEPS median no beneficial spread calibration

9. 9 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch local forecast error calibration I systematic error

10. 10 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch local forecast error calibration II σ

11. 11 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch bias calibration with Kalman Filter error model: states evolution: prediction: with error : ^ ^ spread

12. 12 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch spread calibration with Kalman Filter error model: states evolution: prediction: with error : ^ ^

13. 13 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch forecast distributions COSMO-LEPS mean COSMO-LEPS mean-KF COSMO-LEPS spread DMO DMOKF COSMO-LEPS spread KF -KFplus expectation value standard deviation » simulate normally distributed ensemble

14. 14 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch CRPS verification x < observed x ≥ observed skill score:

15. 15 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch calibration results for T2M bias correction spread correction

16. 16 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch calibration results for T2M ref: COSMO-LEPS DMO

17. 17 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch calibration results for FF10M bias correction spread correction

18. 18 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch calibration results for FF10M ref: COSMO-LEPS DMO

19. 19 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch conclusions » local observations are needed for useful uncertainty prediction » 2m temperature and 10m wind speed of COSMO-LEPS are suitable candidates for bias & spread calibration with a combined Kalman Filter system » forecast skill increases by 30-60 % » potential for spread calibration highest for the first 3 days and in summer higher than in winter » different probabilistic verification scores should be additionally used to quantify the effect of the spread calibration

20. 20 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch T(2m) spread-skill of COSMO-LEPS monthly variability (Ø55 stations) station-based variability (Ø1 year)

21. 21 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch uncertainty forecast with COSMO-7 ref: COSMO-7 KF & COSMO-LEPS spread

22. 22 Local uncertainty prediction | COSMO GM 2009 Vanessa Stauch COSMO models COSMO-7 COSMO-LEPS COSMO-2 COSMO-LEPS 10km, +132 hours COSMO-7 6.6km, +72 hours COSMO-2 2.2km, +24 hours