1. Ecosystem Function and Health Program Problem Area: Quantify and predict ecosystem responses to environmental stressors (e.g. climate change). Develop statistical models to help managers make informed and defensible predictions. Haiganoush K Preisler Statistical Scientist PSW Research Station

2. Understanding the influence of climate on 1.mountain pine beetle outbreaks in: Lodgepole pine forests Whitebark pine forests 2. wildland fire occurrence and size.

3. How does climate influence beetle outbreaks? Outbreaks Beetle pressure Remaining live trees Drought stress Adaptive seasonality Winter mortality Probability of an outbreak Outbreak severity USFS aerial detection surveys

4. A mechanistic statistical model Y = 1 if Stress on tree > Tree tolerance Y = 0 otherwise Stress = number of attacking beetles ~ g 1 (birth rate) + g 2 (btp) + g 3 (live trees) S = f 1 ( temp, drought) + f 2 (btp) + f 3 (live trees) T = f 4 (drought) f ( ) ~ smooth functions to be estimated from data

5. Winter Mortality Adaptive Seasonality Drought Stress

6. Study location (LPP study) Washington Oregon Contribution of beetle pressure vs. weather weather important during initiation, collapse beetle pressure most important

7. Influence of Climate on Wildland Fire Occurrence and Size

8. Climate Variable – Fire Weather Index (FWI) Other Variables – Distance to road; Forest vs Ag land

10. Predicted Probability of a large fire per 10km 2

11. 11 Westerling et al 2011 Climatic Change