1. Rapid Evaluation of ASW Risk John MoorePrincipal Consultant, CORDA Ltd Dave LewisDD(Capability), DEC(UWE) © CORDA Ltd 2004. All rights reserved

2. 2 Overview 1 The Need for ASW Risk Assessment 2 Modelling Approach 3 The Dynamic ASW Risk Model (DARM) 4 Current Status & Way Ahead

3. 1. The Need for ASW Risk Assessment My concern overall is that we are taking risk on risk’ First Sea Lord (Adm Sir Alan West), August 2004

4. 4 The Exam Question ‘A high-level appreciation of the [operational] risk that we are taking in ASW’ –Current and future –Maritime deployment and access –Moderate threat levels Source: CM(SD), November 2003 (adapted)

5. 5 What’s the problem? Proliferation of perceived capability shortfalls –Lack of hard evidence for capability assessments –Trade-offs cannot be assessed Need to know real world consequences of decisions –‘Mission risk’

6. 6 Capability Assessment: ‘Traffic Light’ Output NB All data shown are hypothetical 2001 2005?

7. 7 ASW Risk Assessment The real-world consequences...

8. 8 ASW Risk Assessment How unlucky was that ?

9. 9 Capability and Risk Assessment Capability Assessment Spans all capability areas Includes peacetime and non- warfighting scenarios Potentially subjective Capabilities assessed individually Low resolution Mission Risk Assessment Addresses a specific warfare area Covers only warfighting scenarios Rigorous and verifiable Single, coherent assessment of risk High resolution Techniques are complementary

10. 2. ASW Risk - Modelling Approach

11. 11 ASW Risk Assessment - The Requirement Require fast response –rapid processing of large number of options and sensitivity cases Flexible and versatile –process spans all types of ASW mission Scenario-level model –covers full duration of scenario Maximum use of existing models and data

12. 12 ASW Risk Modelling - Generic ASW Campaign Area ASW Threat TG

13. 13 ASW Risk Modelling - Solution Analytic spreadsheet model ‘Level 1’ model –represent ASW encounters with parameterised encounter rates & outcomes ‘Level 2’ models –screening model –area & barrier search Draw on legacy data wherever possible

14. 3. ASW Risk - The Dynamic ASW Risk Model (DARM)

15. 15 DARM - Key Concepts Generic Units –‘threats’ (hostile) v ‘task units (TU)’ (friendly) – TUs represent both ‘hunters’ and targets Random encounters –parameterised encounter rates Scenario evolves with time –campaign divided into up to 8 periods –assets can arrive, leave or change mission at start of each period Up to 8 Analysis Cases in one application

16. 16 DARM - Example Scenario Blue –CVBG arrives D+7 – RoRo (unescorted) arrives every 2 days from D+7 – ASW TG does precursor ops to D+6, then joins CVBG –MPA search from D+0 Red –SSK 1 on station until D+13 –SSK 2 on station from D+7 –tasked against both CVBG and RoRo vessels variant: RoRo vessels only NB All data shown are hypothetical

17. 17 DARM - Task Units NB All data shown are hypothetical

18. 18 DARM - Measures of Effectiveness Each MoE measures losses to a different combination of TU types ‘Critical loss level’ defined for each MoE –risk defined as probability of losses equalling or exceeding critical loss level NB All data shown are hypothetical

19. 19 SW V A Encounter Rate = PSI x V x SW / (100 x A) (hours -1 ) (PSI = Percentage Search Integrity) DARM - Level 2 Area Search Model

20. 20 DARM - Level 2 Screening Model

21. 21 DARM - Level 2 Screening Model Data NB All data shown are hypothetical

22. 22 DARM Output: Analysis Case Results ‘Kinks’ in the loss curves are due to arrivals and departures of threats and TUs NB All data shown are hypothetical

23. 23 DARM Output: Single-MoE Results ‘Kinks’ in the loss curves are due to arrivals and departures of threats and TUs NB All data shown are hypothetical

24. 24 DARM Output: Risk Table NB All data shown are hypothetical

25. 25 DARM Output: Risk Chart Critical risk level NB All data shown are hypothetical

26. 26 DARM - Verification & Validation Verification by QineiQ Ltd (January 2004) –mathematical correctness –response properties Validation issues: –key assumptions embedded in data –data drawn mainly from COEIA/Business Cases –Data & Assumptions review in preparation

27. 27 4. Current Status and Way Ahead DARM demonstrates real-world impact of savings and enhancement options Initial applications: –Risk assessments for high-level decision-making –ASW concepts studies Plans: –complete Level 2 models –create Data & Assumptions paper –Cap Audit validation

28. Rapid Evaluation of ASW Risk End of Presentation © CORDA Ltd 2004. All rights reserved