1. Environmental and bio-safety issues related to Avian Influenza Sumeet Saksena The East-West Center Presented at the EWC/EWCA 50th Anniversary International Conference July 5, 2010

2. Basic research question What is the role of water and wastes from animal husbandry in the spread of Avian Influenza? Initial approach: Include water and animal husbandry wastes related variables as ‘control’ variables in models where urban, habitat and agricultural transition indices are the main ‘independent’ variables

3. Specific hypothesis AI incidence is high in areas where intensive and extensive forms of livestock operations co-exist. Most likely this is happening in communes undergoing ‘transition’. Explanations will be sought by examining water and wastes issues.

4. Previous studies established a link between AI and –Paddy –Wild and domestic water birds –Extent and distance to wetlands –Rainfall –Aquaculture However, the interaction between water and wastes is poorly understood. –E.g., does increased organic loading due to poultry wastes attract wild birds?

10. Aquaculture in Vietnam Between 1999 and 2004, annual aquaculture growth rates were 31% for production and 19% for culture area (Nhan et al. 2007). In Mekong delta, 20% of farmers practicing aquaculture kept pigs ONLY for providing fish feed

13. Phase 2 surveys: Levels of information Questionnaires, focus groups at each level Secondary data for commune and enterprise level High resolution remote sensing at commune level Commune level Enterprise level Household level

14. Data examples Commune level –Markets, trade, transportation infrastructure –Rainfall, slope, soil type –Wetlands, aquaculture Household level –Livestock (trade, waste management) Enterprise level –Biosecurity, trade, waste management

15. June 2010 Focus Groups: Key results Not aware of the role of aquaculture Relationship with wet weather Links to water pollution Wild birds not linked to AI Movement of trucks and vehicles a possible factor Mixed use regarding chicken manure