1. Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
Climate Impacts And Kansas City, Missouri
Jimmy Adegoke
Chris Green
Center for Applied Environmental Research (CAER)
University of Missouri
Kansas City, MO

2. Defining Interdisciplinary Climate Impacts Research
Focuses on how climate, natural resources, and human socio-economic systems affect each other
Requires integration of physical and social science research & incorporation of stakeholders’ perspective (federal, state, local, business, industry)

3. Regional Climate Impacts Assessment
External Stresses
Institutional Barriers
Climate Research Community
Seasonal/interannual climate forecasting
Anthropogenic climate change projections
Climate Impacts
Science
Managed Natural Resource Systems
climate
Nature
Institutions
- Resource Managers
Policymakers
User Communities
CLIMATE
IMPACTS
SCIENCE
humans
nature
CAPTION: The Climate Impacts Group (CIG) translates climate information about natural climate variability and human-caused climate change into regionally-specific natural resource forecasts/projections for stakeholders in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). This translation is made possible by climate impacts research, a study of how climate, natural systems, and human socioeconomic systems and institutions interact to determine the region’s sensitivity, adaptability, and vulnerability to climate fluctuations. Through outreach activities, such as specialized resource forecasting workshops, one-on-one consultancies, and high level policy and planning meetings, CIG works to tailor this climate information and provide it to regional decision makers, with the aim of improving regional resilience to climate fluctuations. The institutional adaptation and change that could result in improved resilience is often impeded, however, by institutional barriers, which may also filter incoming information. (Note that institutional adaptation and change can also result from other external stresses on the management system.)
Although the prediction of a subset of possible future climate conditions or scenarios can be helpful, a vulnerability assessment of risk to climate and other environmental stress is the most useful guide that science can provide to policy makers.
Adaptation & Change

4. A Paradigm Shift - Climate Vulnerability Assessment:
From: Fussel and Klein, “Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments:
An Evolution of Conceptual Thinking”

5. Vulnerability Assessment
Priorities
Characterize effects of climate change on society and the impacts of potential adaptations
Assess the “adaptive capacity, thus shifting the focus from potential to feasible adaptation” (Fussel and Klein, 2006) of a population.
Goals:
Identify sectors possibly affected by climate change
For each sector characterize thresholds, “critical limits that can normally tolerate before a negative impact is produced on a system or activity.” (Guenni et. al., The Vulnerability Approach, “Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate,” pg. 499)
Determine the frequency, intensity, and duration of negative impacts for each sector.

6. Phase I Defining the Scope Study boundaries
Urban area – KCMO city limits
Surrounding area – census designated metropolitan area, fifteen counties and over 120 cities or MARC nine-county area
Source:

7. Phase I Sector Categories Agriculture Water Commerce Energy Land Use
Governance
Health
Transportation

8. Identifying Stakeholders and Partners
Phase II
Identifying Stakeholders and Partners
Identify stakeholders of each sector
Determine sector composition and key stakeholders
Research climate-impact studies conducted by government agencies, private institutions, or other entities that are relevant to particular sectors
Note: Each sector will include one graduate student

9. Phase II 2. Sectoral interviews
Invite and conduct interviews with at least five sector stakeholders to discuss climate-related perceptions, impacts, adaptations, and mitigation methods
Write a group report documenting the conclusions of the interviews and give a presentation of the results
3. Sector surveys Or paper (graduate students)
Based on the interview results, construct an online survey instrument to collect information on the impacts from specific extreme weather events on individual sectors
Write a paper on a climate-impact related topic only after consultation with course instructor

10. Vulnerability Assessment for Agriculture

11. Agriculture Sector Defining the Scope Sector Components
Urban Agriculture: Farming and animal husbandry operations within the nine-country metropolitan area
Rural Agriculture: All other operations in the fifteen-county MSA supplying food
Subcomponents
Agriculture, dairy, ranching, and mixed operation
Ownership (Corporate farms, family farms, etc.)
Large farms ($250,000 or more in annual sales)
Small farms (under $250,000 in annual sales)
Organic farms

12. Partners and Climate Research
Agriculture Sector
Partners and Climate Research
Sector Partners
USDA
Missouri and Kansas Farmers’ Associations
University extension agents
Kansas City Food Circle
Related Climate Research
“Climate Change and Kansas” – University of Kansas, 2008
“Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Kansas” – University of Maryland, 2008
“Climate Change and Kansas” – EPA, 1998

13. Kansas City’s Agriculture Sector
Crop Production
Animal Husbandry
Dairy Farming
Mixed
Conventional
No Till
Organic
Family Farms
Corporate Farms
Inside KCMO
Inside MARC Area
Inside Census Area
Crop Rotation
Specific Climate Impacts!

14. Regional Climate Model
Phase III
Regional Climate Model
CAER will analyze archived climate data to examine intensity, frequency, and duration of sector impacting events
A regional climate model will be used to simulate impacts based on IPCC Scenarios.
Climate model outputs will be used to drive an economic model to quantify regional economic impacts of climate change.
DICE/RICE
Regional dynamic Integrated model of Climate and Economy (1996)
Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and Economy (1990)
Connects climate change and economic impacts
Economic damages (or opportunities) are calculated as a function
of sector composition

15. Modeling Tools: GCM RCM CMAQ DICE
Global Climate Model (GCM) used in IPCC modeling
Regional Climate Model (RCM) used in IPCC modeling
Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ)
Dynamic Integrated Climate and Economy Model (DICE)
GCM
RCM
CMAQ
DICE