1. The European Union’s involvement in protracted conflicts in the post-Soviet space Marco Siddi EXACT seminar, FIIA, 7 September 2011 Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

2. Protracted conflicts in the EU’s neighbourhood Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA, 7 September 2011

3. 4 protracted conflicts Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria De facto states: sovereignty, no international recognition ‘Parent states’ and ‘patron states’ Start: collapse of the Soviet Union (1988-1992) Ethnic conflicts, except Transnistria Current state Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

4. Abkhazia and South Ossetia Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

5. Nagorno-Karabakh Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

6. Transnistria Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

7. Geopolitical context Russia: post-Soviet space/limit Western influence control of Black Sea security dilemma in the Caucasus EU: energy security stability and security in the neighbourhood Relevance of Kosovo precedent Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

8. EU’s involvement 1998-9: bilateral PCAs 2003-5: EUSRs for South Caucasus and Moldova 2004-6: ENP and bilateral Action Plans Civilian missions: EUBAM Moldova (2005), EUMM Georgia (2008) Mediation in August 2008 crisis, co-chair of Geneva talks Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

9. The EU in Georgia Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

10. The EU in Moldova Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

11. EU’s involvement: problems Low profile, no coherent strategy (i.e. vis-à-vis Armenia and Azerbaijan) ENP review: no news Current restructuring: EUSRs No military/economic access to de facto states Out of OSCE Minsk Group on N-K, only observer in 5+2 format on Transnistria Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

12. Conclusion The EU plays a marginal role EU « reactive » rather than « proactive » (i.e. no peace plan proposal) Shortcomings of inflexible non-recognition policy Actors: EU or member states? Lack of a coherent strategy – no change in the foreseeable future Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

13. Thanks very much for your attention! Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011