1. 1 2009 CWB Project Annual Review Principal Investigator: Y-H. Kuo 1,2 Y.-R. Guo 1 (WRF-Var lead) H. Liu 3 (WRF-EnKF lead) J. Braun 2 (Ground-based GPS lead) Fei Chen 4 and Mike Barlage 4 (HRLDAS) CWB Visitors: Chung-Han Lin, Ling-Feng Hsiao, Shu-Ya Chen, Chia-Ling Tsai, Mei-Hsin Chen, and Bao-Jao Chen 1 NCAR/MMM, 2 UCAR/COSMIC, 3 CISL/iMage, and 4 NCAR/RAL 2 December 2009

2. 2 Task 1: Support for the WRFVar component of the CWB operational system (OP1, OP2) and the upgrade of WRFVar V3 (Y.-R. Guo, Shu-Ya Chen, Mei-Hsin Chen, Ya-ting Tsai, Eric Chiang) Performance Period: a. Provide support for WRFVar01/01/09 – 12/31/09 b. Add CV3 BES to WRFVAR 3.0 code01/01/09 - 12/31/09 c. Implement outer-loop with multiple CV5 BES tuning factors01/01/09 - 06/30/09 d. Conduct retrospective runs for GPS ZTD Assimilation 05/01/09 – 12/31/09 Deliverables: 1. WRFVar 3.0 code with CV3 BES and outer-loop06/30/09 2. Report on the ZTD assimilation from retrospective runs12/31/09

3. 3 Task 1.1 Support for the WRFVar component of CWB operational system Many email exchanges and many teleconferences took place during 2009. Numerous questions were answered and bug fixes provided to CWB. A sample of some of the topics which were handled during 2009 include: a) Namelist settings for OP2 b) Lateral boundary problem on domain 3 (fixed in WRF V3) c) Distribution of vertical levels in WRF (kept the original levels) d) GPSRO data assimilation (in collaboration with Shu-Ya Chen) e) Tuning CV3 BES (in collaboration with Mei-Hsin Chen) f) Minor bug fixes and shell script updates (at least six as listed in report)

4. 4 Task 1.1 continued Staff visits 9 CWB staff visited NCAR during 2009 for collaborative WRF/WRFVar work (Fong, Terng, Hong, Lin, Hsiao, Tsai, Chen, Chen, and Chen) 6 NCAR staff visited CWB during 2009 (Kuo, Guo, Huang, Liu, Bresch, and Barlage) Further details provided under Task 5 (Continued interaction on WRFVar) Provide consultation on TC relocation for the WRF model In collaboration with CWB visitor Ling-Feng Hsiao Provide consultation on GPSRO data assimilation in WRFVar In collaboration with CWB visitor Shu-Ya Chen

5. 5 1.2.1 Add CV3 BES option to WRFVar V3 – 30 source code files in WRFVar were modified or added – CV3 works for both serial and MPP modes – Tested for two months (June and December 2008) 1.2.2 Implement the outer-loop with multiple CV5 BES tuning factors in WRFVar V3 - Guo completed this work with the WRFDA V3.1 release. - Tested by Mei-Hsin Chen Task 1.2 Support of the upgrade of WRFVar 3

6. 6 Task 1.3 Conduct retrospective runs for ground-based GPS ZTD data assimilation 1.3.1 Determine the period for testing CWB selected 2 June 2008 to 6 June 2008 for testing 1.3.2 Prepare data files for testing Ya-Ting Tsai prepared data for June 2008 including conventional observations, GPS PW and ZTD data 1.3.3 Conduct retrospective runs WRFVar’s use of PW/ZTD data is sensitive to the observation error. Default values (0.2 cm for PW and 1.0 cm for ZTD) were suggested by Guo. Results from an early June 2008 period are very encouraging.

7. Mean typhoon track errors for with-relocation, WR (white bars) and no-relocation, NR (shaded bars) experiments and the percentage of the mean track error reduction by the vortex relocation scheme (solid line) from 58 WRF-ARW forecasts. Typhoon relocation

8. GPS PW / ZTD Retrospective runs from 2 June 2008 to 6 June 2008  CON: conventional observations only  PWV: CON + PW  ZTD: CON + ZTD Results are very encouraging, especially for heavy rain forecasts over the Taiwan area. Averaged threat scores for thresholds 0.1 mm (left) and 100 mm (right) from 6h to 36h forecast, verified against a 12h accumulated rainfall (higher is better).

9. 9 Task 1: Support for the WRFVar component of the CWB operational system (OP1, OP2) and the upgrade of WRFVar V3 Performance Period: a. Provide support for WRFVar01/01/09 – 12/31/09Completed b. Add CV3 BES to WRFVAR 3.0 code01/01/09 - 12/31/09Completed c. Implement outer-loop with multiple CV5 BES tuning factors 01/01/09 - 06/30/09Completed d. Conduct retrospective runs for GPS ZTD Assimilation 05/01/09 – 12/31/09Completed Deliverables: 1. WRFVar 3.0 code with CV3 BES and outer-loop06/30/09Delivered 06/30/09 2. Report on the ZTD assimilation from retrospective runs12/31/09To be completed by CWB

10. 10 Task 2: Test and Develop WRF/DART Ensemble Data Assimilation System for Typhoon Forecasts (Hui Liu, Yun-Tien Lin, and Jeff Anderson) Performance Period: a. Further testing and tuning to improve WRF/DART performance01/01/09 – 12/31/09 b. Evaluate the impact of COSMIC data on typhoon forecasts01/01/09 - 12/31/09 c. Provide support and training for running WRF/DART at CWB01/01/09 - 12/31/09 Deliverables: 1. An improved version of the WRF/DART system to CWB12/31/09 2. Report on the results from typhoon forecasts and the impact of COSMIC data 12/31/09 Task 2

11. Solved several issues for CWB domain: No-analysis of soil variables, excluding T-PARC dropsondes in the center of typhoons, fixed surface vertical velocity analysis problem over high terrain of Taiwan. Completed 1-month cycling assimilation of 2008 September over CWB 45km domain successfully without any forecast blow-ups. Analysis errors remained stable and reasonable. Task 2.1 Further testing and tuning to improve WRF/DART performance for CWB domain

12.  NCAR staff performed assimilation and forecast of 2008 Sinlaku and 2009 Morakot case with and without COSMIC refractivity data. COSMIC data improves intensity and track forecast of the typhoons.  CWB staff also performed assimilation and forecast of 2008 Sinlaku and Jangmi case with and without COSMIC refractivity data. Positive impact of COSMIC data on track forecast of the typhoons is also found. Task 2.2 Evaluate the impact of COSMIC data on forecast of typhoons

13. Typhoon Morakot Rain Probability forecast (>500mm, August 7-8 00Z) Ensemble mean Observed GPSNOGPS

14. Typhoon Morakot Rain Probability forecast (>500mm, August 8-9 00Z) Ensemble mean Observed NOGPS GPS

15. NOGPS GPS Ensemble mean Observed 3-day Ensemble Forecasts of Typhoon Tracks (Sinlaku 2008) NoGPS GPS Curving of the Typhoon is better predicted with COSMIC data and one forecast lands over north Taiwan Ensemble mean Observed

16. Hui Liu, UCAR, visited CWB for 2-weeks and helped CWB staff figure out an issue about generating the ensemble initial condition of WRF/DART. Now, WRF/DART runs successfully at CWB. UCAR staff helped CWB staff set up near real-time run scripts for WRF/DART. UCAR staff gave some presentations introducing WRF/DART and about the positive impact of COSMIC data on typhoon forecasts at CWB and NTU. Task 2.3 Support and training for running WRF/DART at CWB

17. 17 Task 2: Test and Develop WRF/DART Ensemble Data Assimilation System for Typhoon Forecasts Performance Period: a. Further testing and tuning to improve WRF/DART performance01/01/09 – 12/31/09Completed b. Evaluate the impact of COSMIC data on typhoon forecasts01/01/09 - 12/31/09Completed c. Provide support and training for running WRF/DART at CWB01/01/09 - 12/31/09Completed Deliverables: 1. An improved version of the WRF/DART system to CWB12/31/09Delivered 12/31/09 2. Report on the results from typhoon forecasts and the impact of COSMIC data 12/31/09Delivered 12/31/09 Task 2 summary

18. 18 Task 3: Support and Improvement of Water Vapor Retrievals using CWB GPS Networks (John Braun) Performance Period: a. Analysis of CWB GPS Network01/01/09 – 12/31/09 b. Transition to hourly processing03/01/09 - 06/30/09 c. Technical support of GPS analysis01/01/09 - 12/31/09 Deliverables: 1. Improved analysis tools of CWB GPS network12/31/09 2. Transition to hourly processing06/30/09

19. Task 3.1 Analysis of CWB GPS Network Objectives: Maintain and monitor daily and near real-time processing of CWB GPS network for ZTD/PW applications. Accomplishments: Monitored processing system (taccop4g), web server (taccop3g) during the year. Reinstalled and recovered from security compromise in early 2009. Outstanding Issues: None

20. Task 3.2 Transition to Hourly Processing Objectives: Modify data analysis to work with hourly data files. Accomplishments: Hourly processing has been running in parallel with two hour system since day 225. Outstanding Issues: None

21. Task 3.2 Timing of 2 hr and 1 hr NRT Analysis Observation Window (1hr) CWB Download (0.1hr) IGS/CODE Download (0.2hr) Data Analysis (0.2 hr) Original 2-hr NRT processing took ~3.5 Hrs for data product New 1-hr NRT Processing takes ~1.5 hrs for data product

22. Task 3.3 Technical support of GPS analysis Objectives: Provide technical support to CWB staff as needed. Accomplishments: Provided debugging assistance, answered data assimilation questions as well as questions about data formats and archiving. Outstanding Issues: None

23. Task 3.3 (bonus) SoWMEX/TIMREX Reprocessing Objectives: Reprocess data from SoWMEX/TIMREX 2008 field campaign to maximize the total number of stations with ZTD/PW retrievals during field campaign. Accomplishments: Days 122-183 of 2008 have been reprocessed. Outstanding Issues: None

24. 24 Task 3: Support and Improvement of Water Vapor Retrievals using CWB GPS Networks Performance Period: a. Analysis of CWB GPS Network01/01/09 – 12/31/09Completed b. Transition to hourly processing03/01/09 - 06/30/09Completed c. Technical support of GPS analysis01/01/09 - 12/31/09Completed Deliverables: 1. Improved analysis tools of CWB GPS network12/31/09Delivered 12/31/09 2. Transition to hourly processing06/30/09Delivered 06/30/09

25. 25 Task 4: Support the Installation and Testing of the UCAR High- Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) (Mike Barlage, Fei Chen, and Chia-Ling Tsai) Performance Period: a. Provide lecture and training at CWB01/01/09 – 06/30/09 b. Implementation, test, and evaluate the offline HRLDAS and Inclusion of MODIS observations 03/01/09 - 05/31/09 c. Use of Taiwan local data in HRLDAS and evaluation06/01/09 - 07/31/09 d. Provide consultant/technical support to CWB staffs in their performing offline HRLDAS experiment. Provide suggestions with regards to the modification of HRLDAS parameters 08/01/09 - 12/31/09 Deliverables: 1. Lecture and training at CWB / CWB visit to NCAR06/30/09 2. Final report documenting the preliminary results of HRLDAS performance at CWB 12/31/09

26. Task 4.1 Lecture and training Mike Barlage visited CWB from 24Feb to 06Mar Itinerary of visit: Day 1: Seminar on the use of MODIS data in land modeling Day 2: Four hours lecture on land surface modeling and HRLDAS Day 3: Noah land surface model code specifics and derivations: Energy Day 4: Noah land surface model code specifics and derivations: Water Day 5: Tutorial on CWB domain-specific input datasets; HRLDAS code specifics Day 6: Program overview and future preparation for VV visit NCAR provided new simple driver interface for testing on single point Chia-Ling Tsai of CWB visited NCAR for 5 months beginning mid- March 2009 for technical transfer. Training included: implementing the MODIS vegetation data with guidance from NCAR the use of satellite products and creation of value-added datasets advanced education on land processes specific to the Noah land surface model and HRLDAS coupling of WRF and HRLDAS

27. 1 Urban 2 Dy Cp Ps 3 Ir Cp Ps 4 Mx Dy Cp 5 Cp Gs Mc 6 Cp Wd Mc 7 Gs 8 Sb 9 Mx Sb Gs 10 Sv 11 Dc Bl Ft 12 Dc Nl Ft 13 Eg Bl Ft 14 Eg Nl Ft 15 Mx Ft 16 Water 17 Hb WetLd 18 Wd WetLd 19 Brn Sprs 20 Hrb Tndr 21 Wd Tndr 22 Mx Tndr 23 BrGdTndr 24 Snow Ice USGS/CTCI MODIS/CTCI Task 4.2: Implementation of MODIS land cover at CWB - Domain 2 Goal: improve nearly 20yr old existing data by using MODIS

28. Example Sensitivity Test: Conversion of Irrigated Cropland(USGS) to Urban (MODIS) in Hong Kong Dom 2 Task 4.2: Inclusion of MODIS data at CWB Goal: improve land surface properties by using MODIS Products used: land cover, LAI, fPAR (for vegetation fraction), albedo Step 1: create global 1km climatology based on MODIS Step 2: create a near real-time system to update surface conditions Urban effect: 4°C increase Urban effect: 3°C increase Urban effect: 20% RH drierUrban effect: PBL 700m deeper

29. Marks － Individual value of year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Original Pixel DataFinal Smooth Climatology Lines － black: median － yellow: tile climo (Savanna) Task 4.2: MODIS Product Climatology Generation Example - SE China pixel 1.Remove suspect data 2.Fill missing data 3.Smooth

30. Real Time time Task 4.2: Prototype of the Real Time Process A B C D E 5 4 3 2 1 Climatology MODIS near real-time data Guess value Real Time QC Good Raw Data QC Bad Data Removed 5 4 3 2 1 QC Bad Data Removed 1.Use previous 5 MODIS observations 2.Remove bad data 3.Use simple weighting to create real-time value

31. Soil Temperature Validation at Tai-Chung (NW Taiwan) 1-D Model Obs Task 4.3: Use of Taiwan local data Model does an excellent job of simulating annual cycle Diurnal surface (5cm) variability is good Layer 2 (25cm) variability is too low Lower layers (70 and 150cm) are also quite good Currently using CWB-maintained precipitation observations over Taiwan for HRLDAS forcing Began using flux tower observations from Chung-Hsing Univ. Using soil temperature observations at I-lan and Tai-chung for validation (example below)

32. 32 Task 4: Support the Installation and Testing of the UCAR High- Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) Performance Period: a. Provide lecture and training at CWB01/01/09 – 06/30/09Completed b. Implementation, test, and evaluate the offline HRLDAS and Inclusion of MODIS observations 03/01/09 - 05/31/09Completed c. Use of Taiwan local data in HRLDAS and evaluation06/01/09 - 07/31/09Completed d. Provide consultant/technical support to CWB staffs in their performing offline HRLDAS experiment. Provide suggestions with regards to the modification of HRLDAS parameters 08/01/09 - 12/31/09Completed Deliverables: 1. Lecture and training at CWB / CWB visit to NCAR06/30/09Delivered 03/31/09 2. Final report documenting the preliminary results of HRLDAS performance at CWB 12/31/09Delivered 12/31/09

33. 33 Task 5: Continued interaction on WRF data assimilation system (Y.-R. Guo) The web page for 2009 NCAR/CWB project was established and updated regularly. http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/people/guo/individual_guo/CWB/CWB_Project_2009.html This includes: o Code for WRFVar 3.1 o Shell scripts for end-to-end testing o Radiance data assimilation script o Links to WRF code page A password-protected web page was created at NCAR for the semi-annual review meeting slides The CWB WRF code web page was maintained at NCAR/MMM. Data file exchanges between NCAR and CWB now use the CWB ftp site: 163.29.179.171 Teleconferences were held regularly throughout the year. Yong-Run Guo, NCAR, visited CWB from 15 May to 15 June 2009 for various WRFVar tasks. Jim Bresch, NCAR, visited CWB from 1 June to 15 June 2009 for several WRF tasks and again from 1 December to 10 December for the annual review and WRF tasks.

34. 34 Task 5: Continued CWB visits to NCAR not under the scope of this project included Chung-Han Lin, working on radiance data assimilation with Zhiquan Liu, Hui-Chuan Lin, and Jim Bresch (CAA sponsored). Bao-Jao Chen working on WRF convective parameterizations with Jim Bresch (CAA sponsored). Ling-Feng Hsiao working with Hans Huang on 4dvar.

35. 35 Task 5: Continued interaction on WRF data assimilation system Performance Period: a. Update and maintain CWB and UCAR CWB project web pages 01/01/09 – 12/31/09Completed b. Site visit to CWB01/01/09 - 12/31/09Completed c. Teleconferences using Skype or other software01/01/09 - 12/31/09Completed Deliverables: 1. Updated web project web page12/31/09Delivered 12/31/09 2. Site visits12/31/09Delivered 12/31/09

36. 36 Thank you End