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2. 2 Prototype Overview  Limited high-level study of average PI age  10 year simulation  Broke PI population up into 5-year age groups: Group 1: 35 and Under Group 2: 36 – 40 Etc. Group 9: 71 and Over  Data from FY80-FY03: Ages of PI’s coming in (ingress) and going out (egress). Because PI can come back within 5 year period, did not include FY99-03 in calculations.

3. 3 Number of PIs in Age Groups (from the NIH Consolidated Grant Applicant File)

4. 4 Ingress Data: Number of New PIs in Each Age Group (from the NIH Consolidated Grant Applicant File) Note: Ingress rates for all groups are increasing over time.

5. 5 Egress Data: Number of Investigators Leaving the PI Pool (for at least 5 years) (from the NIH Consolidated Grant Applicant File) Note: Egress rates of all groups, except 35 and Under, are increasing over time. Egress requires absence from the PI pool for 5 years or more.

6. 6 Forecasting Model Overview: FY98 Start, FY98 Ingress/Egress Values 15 Year Average Tenure Group 9 Group 8 Group 7 Each “box” represents a 5-year segment. Three boxes across represents the average 15-year tenure. Group 1 Group 2 Group 6 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5