1. State Population Forecast: 2010-2040 Office of Financial Management Forecasting Division November 29, 2012

2. Office of Financial Management General Findings State population growth is expected slow around 2025. The state’s population will become increasingly older each year. This aging process will cause a decline in the number of births due to a smaller proportion of women at child bearing age. At the same time, an elderly population is at greater risk of dying, thus contributing to an increase in the number of deaths. Migration is expected to bounce back to 45,000 annually after 2022 and will continue to serve as the main contributor to state population growth.

3. Office of Financial Management State Population Growth is Expected to Slow Mainly as the Result of an Increase in the Death Rate DecadePopulationBirthsDeaths Natural IncreaseNet Migration 20106,724,540 840,630 460,369 380,261 450,136 20207,414,437 898,840 540,039 358,801 331,096 20308,165,376 976,369 672,430 303,939 447,000 20408,804,150 1,035,618 846,844 188,774 450,000 Decade Change Population Change Percent Population ChangeBirth RateDeath Rate Net Migration Rate 2000-2010 830,39714.09 12.506.856.69 2010-2020689,89710.2612.127.284.47 2020-2030750,93910.1311.968.245.48 2030-2040638,774 7.8211.769.625.11

4. Office of Financial Management Components of Population Change Natural increase is expected to decline from a level of 40,700 in 2010 to 15,600 by 2040. Migration will remain the main contributor to state population growth into the foreseeable future.

5. Office of Financial Management Between 2011 and 2029, all of the Baby Boomers will turn 65. While the total population is expected to grow by no more than 10 percent per decade in the next 30 years, the 65 and over population is expected to grow by 51 percent between 2010-20, and 34 percent between 2020-30. By 2040, the 65 and over population is projected to reach 1.8 million—an increase of just over one million persons since 2010. As the Baby Boomers Age, the Demand for Senior Services Will Increase

6. Office of Financial Management Projected Change in Budget Driver Populations: 2013-2015 Population growth in specific subgroups will affect major budget areas although the impacts will depend on policy choices, economic factors, and social conditions. Ages 12-17 Males Ages 18-39 General Population Ages 85+ Children Ages 0-17 Ages 17-29 Ages 5-17 Ages 0-2

7. Office of Financial Management Contact Information Yi Zhao, Chief Demographer OFM / Forecasting 360-902-0592 yi.zhao@ofm.wa.gov