1. Two-year oscillation of monsoon rainfall and global climate in the present decade Debasis Sengupta, Arathy Menon CAOS, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore

2. Data TRMM 3B42 V6 daily 0.25 ⁰ rainfall 1998-2006 TRMM TMI daily 0.25 ⁰ SST 1998-2006 QuikSCAT/FSU daily 0.5 ⁰ wind 1999-2005 CPC monthly 0.5 ⁰ air temperature 1998-2006

3. TBO in Rainfall

4. Central India-Bay of Bengal (CI-BoB) Wet: 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005 Dry: 2000, 2002, 2004

5. Are the recent biennial oscillations significant? D(i)= R(i+1) – R(i) MD=1/N ∑ |D(i)|

9. TBO in SST

10. East Pacific SST does not have biennial oscillation.

11. Pacific SST: El Nino years with Indian monsoon drought minus El Nino years without drought (Krishnakumar et al., 2006, Science)

13. Central Pacific SST (“El Nino Modoki” Ashok et al., 2007); Trans Nino Index (Krishnakumar et al., 2006) do not have significant biennial oscillation. SOI does, but only in 2001-2006

15. Arctic Oscillation Thompson and Wallace (1998) GRL

17. http://www.jisao.washington.edu/wallace/

18. Northward shift of Atlantic ITCZ

19. Atlantic ITCZ shifted north ITCZ shift towards warmer hemisphere Kushnir et al. (2006) J. Clim. Broccoli et al. (2006) GRL Wang et al., Chiang and Koutavas (2004) Nature AMO: Warm North Atlantic, stronger Asian monsoon Goswami et al. (2006) GRL Zhang and Delworth (2006 ) GRL

20. Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) No previous report of biennial Variability in AMM From Kushnir et al., 2006

21. Tropical N. Atlantic winter SST: Evaporation changes in autumn (~10-15 W/m 2 ). Insolation changes are ~3-5 W/m 2.

23. Conclusions Modern observations show clear two-year oscillation in CI-BoB and far West Pacific summer monsoon rain in 1999- 2005. 2002 is a weak ENSO year, but East Pacific SST does not have a two-year oscillation. Biennial oscillation (TBO) of monsoon is part of pervasive TBO of global surface climate, including west Indian, west Pacific and tropical north Atlantic SST; the Arctic Oscillation; north Asia and north America surface air temperature. Summer ITCZ over Bay of Bengal/India is intensified in the north. Atlantic and central Pacific winter ITCZ shifts north by ~2 ⁰ in years of warm northern hemisphere (tropical north Atlantic, north Eurasia and north America).

24. Models suggest that biennial variance of tropical climate increases as the earth warms (Nanjundiah et al. 2005 ASL) – are we seeing the first signs ?

25. TBO in Wind speed