1. Slide-1 Donald Carlton Fire Program Solutions Cheetah 3: An Overview

2. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-2 Introduction Fire Program Solutions, LLC Donald Carlton 17067 Hood Court Sandy, Oregon 97055 (503) 668-1390 (Voice) Email: dcarlton1@aol.com Home Page: http://www.fireps.com

3. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-3 Cheetah 3 Computerized Harmonic Evaluation of Episodes and Tools for Assessment and Help

4. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-4 Objectives  Provide a overview of the program capabilities to support decision processes.  Provide an overview of the purpose and structure of the Cheetah 3 software programs  Provide a overview of the program inputs, outputs.

5. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-5 Decisions vs Outcomes Favorable Uninformed Informed Unfavorable Decision Outcomes Where You Want to be Lucky Unlucky Deserving

6. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-6 Examples of Decision Support  Historical fire occurrence rates and patterns over a defined period of time  Specific firefighting resource needs during a moderately short period of time such as 2 weeks.  Financial projections of expected costs over a defined period of time  Others?

7. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-7 Programs  Cheetah 3 Manager –Program data management –Used to load and manage fire occurrence and organizational data –Password protected  Cheetah 3 Analyzer –Decision support –Define Analysis Sets –Do historic fire occurrence analysis –Do firefighting resource needs analysis

8. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-8 Fire Occurrence

9. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-9 Fire Occurrence  Agencies and States for 1980 - 2006 –U.S Forest Service –Bureau of Land Management –Bureau of Indian Affairs –Fish and Wildlife Service –National Park Service –States Alaska Washington Oregon California

10. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-10 Fire Occurrence  Data fields in the fires master database –Unit identifier –Discovery date –Fire number –Fire size (acres to nearest tenth) –Statistical cause code (DOI definitions) –Datum –Latitude (decimal degrees) –Longitude (decimal degrees) –Fire Contain Date (MM/DD/YYYY) –Fire Contain Time (military time i.e. 1900) –Fire Control Date (MM/DD/YYYY) –Fire Control Time (military time i.e. 1900)

11. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-11 Fire Occurrence  All fires assigned to an organizational unit and a GACC –Fire reports do not have a GACC field –A unit organization table has the GACC for each organizational unit –The GACC is assigned on import via a lookup –Where reorganization has occurred, the unit a fire is assigned to may not be the one currently for the fire’s location

12. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-12 Cheetah 3 Analyzer

13. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-13 Cheetah 3 Analyzer  The program has two distinct but related sides –Historic fire occurrence analysis and –Firefighting resource requirements analysis

14. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-14 Cheetah 3 Analyzer  All analysis is done with an Analysis Set  Analysis Set parameters –Years –GACC(s) and/or States –Agencies or –Organizational Unit (PSA)

15. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-15 Cheetah 3 Analyzer

16. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-16 Cheetah 3 Analyzer  Predictive Service Area definition –A collection of organizational units

17. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-17 Cheetah 3 Analyzer Historic Fire Occurrence  Graphs available –Fire Occurrence Only –Fire Occurrence by Cause (Human, Natural or Both) –Fire Acres by Cause (Human, Natural or Both) –Fire Occurrence and Episodes –Yearly Episode Summary –Active Fires

18. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-18 Cheetah 3 Analyzer Fire Occurrence Only Graph

19. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-19 Cheetah 3 Analyzer Fire Occurrence by Cause Graph (Human, Natural or Both)

20. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-20 Cheetah 3 Analyzer Fire Acres by Cause Graph (Human, Natural or Both)

21. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-21 Episodes  Cheetah 3 Analyzer –Of particular interest are the number and intensity of fire occurrence episodes

22. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-22 Number of D-G Fires from Episodes versus Total Fire Occurrence

23. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-23 Cheetah 3 Analyzer Fire Occurrence and Episodes Graph

24. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-24 Cheetah 3 Analyzer Yearly Episode Summary Graph

25. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-25 Cheetah 3 Analyzer Active Fires Graph

26. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-26 Cheetah 3 Analyzer Historic Fire Occurrence  Reports available –Fire Occurrence by Cause (Human, Natural or Both) –Fire Acres –Episodes –Active Fires

27. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-27 Cheetah 3 Analyzer Fire Occurrence by Cause Report (Human, Natural or Both)

28. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-28 Cheetah 3 Analyzer Fire Acres Report

29. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-29 Cheetah 3 Analyzer Episodes Report

30. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-30 Cheetah 3 Analyzer Active Fires Report

31. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-31 Cheetah 3 Analyzer  The program has two distinct but related sides –Historic fire occurrence analysis and –Firefighting resource requirements analysis

32. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-32 Cheetah 3 Analyzer Firefighting Resource Needs

33. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-33 Cheetah 3 Analyzer Firefighting Resource Needs

34. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-34 Cheetah 3 Analyzer Firefighting Resource Needs

35. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-35 Cheetah 3 Analyzer Firefighting Resource Needs

36. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-36 Cheetah 3 Analyzer Support  Tom Wordell is the first to contact  Users’ Guide has been developed  Program Summary has been developed  Help is developed in the programs  Program support web site –www.fireps.com/cheetah3/  Currently have a technical support agreement that is funded for FY 2008

37. Cheetah 3 An Overview Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007 Slide-37