1. Evaluation of the DC Opportunity Scholarship Program: Final Report Conducted by Westat, University of Arkansas, Chesapeake Research Associates Presented by Patrick J. Wolf, Principal Investigator IES Research Conference National Harbor, Maryland June 30, 2010

2. Overview of Program Part of 3-sector strategy of urban education reform Student Eligibility  Grade K-12, residents of DC  Family income ≤ 185% Federal poverty line  Priority to students at schools in need of improvement (SINI) Scholarship  Up to $7,500 to cover tuition, school fees, and transportation  Renewable for up to 5 years Participation (2004-2009)  68 of the 88 general purpose private schools in DC  5,547 eligible applicants; 3,738 scholarship recipients; 2,881 initial scholarship users Closed to new participants in spring of 2009

3. Overview of Study Design Lottery-based randomized control trial Sample: 2,308 eligible applicants in 2004 and 2005 Data:  Evaluation-administered SAT-9  Surveys: parents, students, principals Analysis: impact of offer, use of scholarship, attendance at private school Reports:  2 describing program applicants and our sample  4 estimating impacts (after 1, 2, 3, and 4+ years)

4. Scholarship Use Over 4+ Years Just over one-fourth of students offered a scholarship consistently used it throughout the study Participation drop-off (net): averaged 22% per year Top reasons for dropping out of OSP  Child got into a charter school (22%)  Lack of space (for students transitioning from K-8) (19%)  Moved out of DC (15%)  Transportation problems (14%) Students more likely to drop out of OSP: lower initial test scores, older grade levels, male, with special needs, more siblings

5. Treatment Group Scholarship Use by Final Year

6. Key Findings OSP significantly raised graduation rate No conclusive evidence OSP affected achievement over longer-run  In final year, no statistically significant impacts for students overall, SINI, lower performing, males  Third year overall reading gains didn’t persist  Impacts on reading test scores for some subgroups, but results may be due to chance Positive impacts on ratings of safety and satisfaction from parents but not students

7. High School Graduation Rates, Overall Sample & SINI Subgroup, Parent Reports, 2008-09 ITT IOT

8. ITT Impacts on Reading Achievement Overall, by Years After Application -2.41 -0.53 0.89 -0.13 1.03 3.17 4.46* 3.90 4.46 6.88 8.03 7.94 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 00.511.522.533.544.5 After one yearAfter two yearsAfter three years After at least f our years * Statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence interval.

9. ITT Impacts on Math Achievement Overall, by Years After Application -0.26 -3.07 -2.42 -3.01 2.74 0.23 0.810.70 5.74 3.53 4.03 4.41 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 00.511.522.533.544.5 After one yearAfter two yearsAfter three yearsAfter at least four years

10. Parent and Student Reports of Safety and an Orderly School Climate, 2008-09 **Statistically significant at the 99 percent confidence level.

11. Parent and Student Reports of School Satisfaction, 2008-09 **Statistically significant at the 99 percent confidence level.

12. Context DC proficiency and NAEP scores up 20 percent 2005-2009 Only 3 percent of DC schoolchildren participated and little evidence of competitive response from DC schools Reliable studies indicate graduation yields key benefits: ETS study – increases earnings by $8,500/year, decreases unemployment by one-third Census study – all else equal, graduates live 7 years longer than dropouts Belfield and Levin – each graduate reduces the cost of crime by $112,000 Cecelia Rouse – each additional graduate saves the nation $260,000 Study limitations: One study, one city, specific program design Both achievement and attainment analyses in final year based on subgroups Some key outcomes based on parent and student reports