1. WUP-FIN2 socio - economic and policy analysis WUP-FIN2 Introductory Training – Bangkok MARKO KESKINEN & OLLI VARIS

2. PRESENTATION OUTLINE 1. Introduction 2. Methodologies for socio-economic analysis 3. Work in Nam Songkram (and in Vientiane Area) 4. Interactive discussion INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

3. WATER MANAGEMENT Water management is much more than managing water  includes also environment & people (+politics!)  multidisciplinary & interdisciplinary approach with participatory aspect is essential  but how to integrate the diverse information? Changed demands for water management mean that water modelling has to change, too  better linking with society & greater participation IWRM INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

4. WATER & SOCIETY Socio-economic analysis within a water modelling project?  to link modelling & water with local people  to widen the approach from modelling to impact assessment  to make maximum use of models But just carrying out the analysis is not enough: it has to be tightly integrated with modelling  perhaps most demanding task INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

5. LOCAL PEOPLE & THEIR LIVELIHOOD WATER PROBLEMS & NEEDS RELATED TO WATER HELP & ANSWERS TO PROBLEMS SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODELLING ”Modelling that is better connected to real world & local level”  Facilitates solving of water-related problems  Helps to link modelling to management & decision making

6. OBJECTIVE & FOCUS AREAS To support the MRC and national institutions in water-related socio-economic & policy analysis  close cooperation with above institutions essential! Focus areas –Tonle Sap –Mekong Delta –Vientiane Area in Lao PDR –Nam Songkram watershed Policy Analysis of Lower Mekong Basin INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

7. Methodologies used in the s-e analysis: (example from the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia) –Participatory village survey & interviews –Analysis of socio-economic databases (GIS) –Policy analysis with WUP-FIN Policy Models (based on Bayesian Networks) METHODOLOGIES s-e analysis policy analysis INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

8. 1) Database analysis in GIS 2) Village surveys & interviews Two levels: local & regional SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOCAL LEVEL: water-related links & problems REGIONAL LEVEL: impact analysis & decision making knowledge integration Analysis according to topographic zones in GIS analysis support Two phases: analysis & integration INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

9. Tonle Sap study area arranged into five zones according to topography (+urbanisation)  Makes analysis and linking with the models easier: Water does not follow administrative boundaries! Zone 1: 0 - 6 metres Zone 2: 6 - 8 metres Zone 3: 8 - 10 metres Zone 4: 10 metres to National Roads Zone 5: Urban areas TOPOGRAPHIC ZONING INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

11. Databases give access to extensive (albeit often biased) quantitative information First: review of existing databases Census 1998 Fishing Household Survey 1996 Topographic database (Certeza) Other databases Then: construction of own GIS-based database that arranges information according to different topographic zones  database analysis according to zones DATABASE ANALYSIS INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION Examples fromTonle Sap

12. BASIC INDICATORS Zone 1Zone 2Zone 3Zone 4Zone 5All zones Area (ha)853 098240 694229 207157 3557 255 1 487 609 No. of villages88823135541211158 Population84 74256 690283 104470 196291 460 1 186 192 0 - 19 years56.0%58.3%57.0%56.6%53.4%55.9% Females50.6%52.0%52.2%52.3%51.9%52.0% Literacy35.7%44.3%48.9%51.2%66.0%52.9% Khmer82.9%100.0%99.8%94.9%100.0%94.6% Vietnamese14.0%0.0% 0.9%0.0%3.0% Information derived from Census 1998 and Fishing Household Survey 1995-96 INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

13. Qualitative and up-to-date village-level information but extremely small sample size Based on participatory methods (RRA/PRA) Complemented and contradicted databases ”To see behind the numbers” Grassroots level information on actual water- related benefits, problems and needs ”Make local people’s voice heard” Also more quantitative survey/interview methods (questionnaires) applicable VILLAGE SURVEYS & INTERVIEWS INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

14. Key informant interview Group discussion Participatory mapping Transect walk and observation Seasonal calendar and occupational preference ranking Time ranking Focus group discussion and rankings on migration & urbanisation Final discussion and analysis of the study SURVEY METHODS INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

16. POLICY MODELLING (1/2) Analyse impact of water management policies - different sector policies (Tonle Sap) - different governance levels (Vietnam)  Understand the most critical management and governance issues  Support for planning & decision making Assists in learning of possibility of compromises  helps in formulating compromise policies INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

17. POLICY MODELLING (2/2) Based on Bayesian causal networks Probabilistic: efficient handling of uncertainties Allow multidisciplinary modelling and analysis  both quantitative and qualitative information Expert / stakeholder consultation essential part  process of developing the model as important as model results ”LEARNING PROCESS” INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

18. SCENARIOS & IMPACTS TENDENCIES LINK MATRIX

19. S-E ANALYSIS IN NAM SONGKRAM Aim to support modelling by –Increasing the understanding of local socio-economic conditions, particularly of water-related livelihoods (e.g. fishing, farming) and their trends –Analysing the interconnections with water resources and livelihoods  What are the most critical water-related issues in the area that modelling should address? –Enhancing the participation of local people in modelling work  Integration with modelling work essential INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

20. Key issues and questions –What has already been done?  Existing information (databases, surveys, etc.) –Is this enough, or is something more needed? By you as Thai counterparts By the modelling project  What should be the focus of the analysis ? -What should be the approach of the analysis? -Review of existing literature and information, AND -Database analysis, AND/OR -Village surveys & interviews S-E ANALYSIS IN NAM SONGKRAM INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

21. Key issues and questions –What are the main institutions working in Nam Songkram related to socio-economics?  cooperation with them? –Who should be the main responsible? Socio-economic analysis by Thai counterparts Facilitation and training by WUP-FIN Integration with modelling together –Vientiane area: bank erosion issue? S-E ANALYSIS IN NAM SONGKRAM INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

22. Ideas / requests from the BDP of MRC –Modelling: look at the flood pulse concept  how far does the flooding impact of the Mekong reach with different floods?  how different scenarios impact this? -Socio-economic analysis: focus on fisheries  hydrology & fish  fish & people -Make use of already existing information! S-E ANALYSIS IN NAM SONGKRAM INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

23. Comments and questions? www.eia.fi/wup-fin keskinen@iki.fi & olli.varis@hut.fi INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION