1. Political Science Scope and Methods Models and Theories in Political Science

2. Models and Methods History of Political Science  How should we conduct research? Specific Research Programs  Duverger’s Law (Riker)  Realignment literature (Mayhew)

3. Theories and Evidence Inductive vs. Deductive Theorizing  Induction: General conclusions are drawn from particular facts. Look for patterns in facts; build theories from them.  Deduction: Here you reason from the general to the particular. Start with general theories; build to specific predictions about the world

4. Philosophy of Science Popper  Falsification  “Critical tests” Kuhn  Normal Science  Paradigm shifts

5. Clocks and Clouds Politics as Clocks  Emphasis on discovering regularities in political science  Concern with generalization of regularities through “covering laws”  Focus on causality as an explanatory concept. Deductive? Inductive?

6. More on Clocks and Clouds Statistical methods and Rational Choice theory  One and the same?  Battle between quantoids and non-quantoids

7. “Some may question the coupling of deductive theory and quantitative research under the one rubric of “hard science.” Quantitative researchers do at least schematically empirical work, whereas most deductive theorists use empirical data only for anecdotal illustration. But it was radical quantifiers, those who analyze all questions with statistics, who first deformed the discipline in the name of hard science. It was they who popularized the study of politics outside of its historical and cultural setting, who made methodology into the core of graduate education while degrading political philosophy and foreign language study, and who spawned the trend toward method-driven rather than problem-driven research.” Gregory Kaska (2001)

8. More from Kaska The Perestroika movement is a reaction against scholars who wish to turn the study of politics into what Thomas Kuhn called a “normal science.” They seek to impose a consensus on epistemological and methodological questions in order to hasten scientific progress. This group of scholars comprises mainly rational choice theorists, formal modelers, and those who do exclusively quantitative research. I refer to them as advocates of “hard science.”

9. Politics as Clouds Political behavior as a “cloud” Lack of predictability Need to delve deep and come up with a complex understanding of the political world.

10. Dimensions to Consider Clocks vs. Clouds (degrees of “scientification”) Inductive vs. Deductive theories.

11. Realignment and Duverger’s Law Inductive vs. Deductive theorizing Are these appropriate empirical approaches Does knowledge cumulate? What is political science? What should it be?

12. Where does this leave us? A scientific ideal Multiple methods Good research design Fair collection and presentation of evidence Logical inferences drawn from that evidence

13. Example: Iraq War Please give your best guess to this next question, even if you are not sure of the correct answer. As you know, the United States is currently involved in a war in Iraq. Do you happen to know how many soldiers of the U.S. military have been killed in Iraq since the fighting began in March 2003?

14. Log (Base 10) of Estimates of U.S. Troop Deaths in Iraq, 2004

15. Table 3: Predicted Probability of Causality Estimates Pr (Underestimate) Pr (Correct Answer) Pr (Overestimate) Information Low Information0.510.310.18 High Information0.360.560.07 Difference-0.15+0.25-0.11 Follow News About Iraq? Not At All Closely0.660.240.11 Very Closely0.250.670.08 Difference-0.41+0.43-0.03 Partisanship Strong Republican0.480.440.08 Strong Democrat0.350.540.12 Difference-0.13+0.10+0.04

16. Effect of Information Treatment on Support for War in Iraq Among Under-Estimators Did The U.S. Make The Right Decision in Using Military Force against Iraq? Estimate War Deaths Corrected Information Right Decision48%44% Wrong Decision52%56% N=252;  2 (1)=0.40 Pr=0.53 Has The Current War in Iraq Been Worth Fighting? Estimate War Deaths Corrected Information Worth Fighting58%53% Not Worth Fighting42%47% N=253;  2 (1)=0.71 Pr=0.40

17. Among Over-estimators Did The U.S. Make The Right Decision in Using Military Force against Iraq? Estimate War Deaths Corrected Information Right Decision42% Wrong Decision58% N=57;  2 (1)=0.00 Pr=0.95 Has The Current War in Iraq Been Worth Fighting? Estimate War Deaths Corrected Information Worth Fighting42%48% Not Worth Fighting58%52% N=57  2 (1)=0.26 Pr=0.61