1. Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Copyright©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC Sarah A. Sheard September 2006 Complex Systems Sciences and Systems Engineering

2. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 2 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Agenda  What are Complex Systems Sciences?  Why should they affect systems engineering?  What effect are Complex Systems Sciences currently having?  What effects do we want them to have?  How can we make this happen?

3. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 3 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems  What are Complex Systems Sciences?  Why should they affect systems engineering?  What effect are Complex Systems Sciences currently having?  What effects do we want them to have?  How can we make this happen? Agenda

4. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 4 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Balance ● Growth ● Connections Scale-Free Networks Autopoiesis (self-organized criticality, self-persistence) Complex Adaptive Systems form via growth and preferential attachment Lead to Synchronization Physical and animate Phase transitions Chaos (“Butterfly effect”) Complexity Edge of Chaos = Life Small Worlds Small avg # steps High local clustering Hubs Resistance to failure Security weak points Tipping points Indicate The Complexity Quagmire Power Law Distributions Fractals Strange Attractors Small changes  Big Effects Movement from Order through Oscillation to chaos Entropy as a measure

5. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 5 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Fractals  Repeated simple rules can cause wondrously complex patterns  Self-similarity, e.g., length of a shoreline  Has implications on development, such as how nature creates complex things like ferns, rivers, bloodstreams Europa lightning ferns (simulations) river basin the lung the Mandelbrot set tree sand ripples

6. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 6 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Chaos Principles 1 Order exists within apparent randomness 2 Simple systems can cause complex behavior 3 Chaotic systems show a sensitive dependence on initial conditions 4 Chaos appears throughout the natural world 5 Chaos evolves the same way in any domain

7. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 7 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Chaos Principle 5  Chaos evolves the same way in any domain. Small nonlinearity factor in wildlife population equation leads to steady state Larger nonlinearity leads to boom/bust oscillation As nonlinear factor increases, cycle doubles again until becoming chaotic This is reproduced in many experimental and mathematical domains [e.g., x(next) = a x (1-x) ]

8. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 8 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Complex Adaptive Systems Realm  Chaos Theory describes one dimension  What happens at the transition from order to chaos?  Many systems adapt to live at the edge of chaos!  Goals: Characterize complex adaptive systems Look at what we engineer in terms of complex adaptive systems

9. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 9 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Edge of Chaos Order : Too little communication Chaos: Too unstable Complex adaptive systems adapt toward the edge of chaos Critical Point (Angle of repose)

10. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 10 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Power Law Source: Victor MacGill, Chaos Theory and Complexity Theory Earthquakes Avalanches Financial dips Traffic jams River sizes Friends Web links Extinctions “Pareto law” Noise

11. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 11 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems  What are Complex Systems Sciences?  Why should they affect systems engineering?  What effect are Complex Systems Sciences currently having?  What effects do we want them to have?  How can we make this happen? Agenda

12. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 12 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Today’s SE Problem  Systems engineering needs complex systems Bigger, complex systems of systems need to be developed, controlled and run in a predictable manner Global vulnerability of interconnected software-controlled systems is dominant  Systems engineering is developing as a discipline, but not holistically or solidly Arguments: Systems thinking or green eyeshades? Arguments: Art or science? I or We? Analysis or coordination? Acquirer or contractor? Argument: Improve it or throw it out?

13. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 13 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Source: Monica Farah-Stapleton, IEEE SOS conference, 2006 Used with permission. Army SOS perception

14. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 14 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Agenda  What are Complex Systems Sciences?  Why should they affect systems engineering?  What effect are Complex Systems Sciences currently having?  What effects do we want them to have?  How can we make this happen?

15. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 15 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Need to Connect Across the Gap Engineering Science Multidiscipline Systems Engineering Systems Science Specialized discipline Engineering Science datasupport data Source: Graphic simplified from Hybertson 06

16. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 16 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems  What are Complex Systems Sciences?  Why should they affect systems engineering?  What effect are Complex Systems Sciences currently having?  What effects do we want them to have?  How can we make this happen? Agenda

17. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 17 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems How Can Complex Systems Help?  Goal: More success engineering ultra-complex systems Predictability, affordability, evolvability  Directed emergence: design by manipulative evolution E.g., financial markets Make it possible to SE large systems No disasters  Research into issues SEs need answers to most: Heuristics

18. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 18 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Engineering Complex Systems: the Trick  Understand the complex, stochastic, chaotic nature of the problem and solution; e.g.: Understand network security holes and how to plug them Design environment for system to grow  Manage the development and operation of the system to create and maintain desired emergent properties Frequently, “design” becomes “constant vigilance”  Reduce the probability of negative outcomes  Prevent catastrophes by accessing and using available knowledge

19. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 19 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems SEs Use Principles and Heuristics The principles of minimum communi- cations and proper partitioning are key to system testability and fault isolation In any resource-limited situation, the true value of a given service or product is determined by what one is willing to give up to obtain it Don’t depend on written specifications and state- ments of work. Face-to- face sessions with the different customer/ consumer groups are necessary Questions needing research: Why? Under what conditions? What factors are key? What can be tweaked to affect outcome most?

20. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 20 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Look at One Heuristic... Answers do not exist today, but CS research could easily provide insight The principles of minimum communi- cations and proper partitioning are key to system testability and fault isolation What would be the speed impact if we had to double the number of communications events between two modules? How can I model different ways to partition a system to find the most testable architecture? How can I set up a system that is a no-brainer for fault isolation? Is this kind of partition similar to or in conflict with systems that are highly secure? What types of architecture (kinds of partitioning) do systems naturally evolve into, and to what extent can the systems be controlled?

21. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 21 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems  What are Complex Systems Sciences?  Why should they affect systems engineering?  What effect are Complex Systems Sciences currently having?  What effects do we want them to have?  How can we make this happen? Agenda

22. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 22 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems What We Can Do  Increase knowledge Become agents of the future Learn and use research results  Increase communication Push SE information into CS arena Read CS information and bring to SE Join the movement to connect the two  Example of applicable work: Cynefin Framework

23. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 23 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Example: Cynefin Framework Describes 4 domains of situations 1.How to tell them apart 2.How to deal with them managerially 3.How to move from one to another (see next slide) Primarily managerial focus Source: Kurtz, C. F., and D. J. Snowden. “The new dynamics of strategy: Sense- making in a complex and complicated world.” IBM Systems Journal 42(3), 462-483. http://www.research.ibm.com/journal/sj/423/kurtz.pdf. Used with permission.

24. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 24 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Cynefin Framework (cont’d)  Describes type of connections  Dynamics: moving from one domain to another  Implicit managerial suggestions may apply to engineering as well; certainly applies to teaming

25. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 25 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Course in Complex Systems  Introduction: Resolving SE Paradoxes  Introduction to Chaos Theory: Fractals, Chaos Principles, Becoming Chaotic  Concepts of Complexity Science: Edge of Chaos, Complex Adaptive Sys- tems, Fitness Landscape  Attributes of Complex Systems: SOS Attributes, Complexity Profile, Emergent Behavior  Networks: Small World Networks, Hubs, and Power Laws, Neural Networks  Dynamics of Complex Systems: Evolution, Phase Transitions, Preventing Catastrophe  SE Applications: Seven new approaches, selecting the right approach  Wrap-up: Resolution to paradoxes

26. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 26 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Steps to Bridge the Gap  There is so much that has to be done, and so much that CS has to offer SE. SE needs it greatly. SOS’s, Heuristics, State of SE  “Meta conference” held in 2006 to spread the word INCOSE workshop, Conference on SE Research, IEEE Systems of Systems, NECSI ICCS, INCOSE symposium, SOS Eng Conference, EuSEC,...  For 2007 see next slide...

27. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 27 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Joint Conferences Planned in 2007  Organized by Russ Abbott, myself, and a core committee  Small Workshop January 11-12...equal numbers of SEs, CS, and related others Purpose: Establish a joint discipline Outcome  Larger Conference planned October 2007 Purpose: Communicate and further the joint discipline In conjunction with ICCS, International Conference on Complex Systems Sponsors include NECSI, Stevens Institute, and CSER  Sign up to be kept informed

28. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 28 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Contact Information Sarah Sheard, Principal Third Millennium Systems LLC sheard@3MilSys.com +1 (703) 757-7644 cell: +1 (703) 994-7284 location: Washington, DC area

29. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 29 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems References  Most pictures come from www.morguefile.com, where photographers post photos for royalty-free use. I always let the artists know I am using their pictures. Some come from US Government websites because of free copyright use. Clipart is from Microsoft. Other credits are as follows:  Slide 4, shell picture http://www.nsls.bnl. gov/newsroom/news /2005/11-UsersMeeting - ws2.htm, credited to D'Arcy Wentworth Thompson's 1917 On Growth and Form. Picture next to Edge of Chaos title: see Slide 8. All other graphics from Complexity Pages: Exploring the New Science of Chaos and Complexity by Victor MacGill (http://complexity.orcon.net.nz/) Used with permission.  Slide 5, most pictures from MacGill, above. River picture from Google Earth (Amazon basin).  Slide 8, Theory.org website on chaos and complexity: http://www.theory.org/fracdyn /neurodyn/langton-bifurcation.html.  Slide 13, Monica Farah-Stapleton, IEEE SOS conference, 2006.  Slides 22-23, Kurtz, C. F., and D. J. Snowden. “The new dynamics of strategy: Sense- making in a complex and complicated world.” IBM Systems Journal 42(3), 462-483. http://www.research.ibm.com/journal/sj/423/kurtz.pdf. Used with permission.

30. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 30 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems 4. Enterprises: Mitre: Bigger than SOS (and many others) 3b. DOD FOS Family of Systems (e.g. set of systems to help track moving targets) 3a. DOD SOS (CJCSI 3170.01E) (e.g. combat aircraft) Systems of Systems Definitions 1. Typical SE SOS: (Maier* SOS) 1. Operational Independence 2. Managerial Independence 3. Evolving 4. Emergent Behavior 5. Geographic Dispersion 2. Typical Computer Science SOS Inter-networked Computers *Also called Maier/Sage/Cuppan 5. Complex systems (nonlinear, multi-agent, evolving, emergent...)

31. Copyright ©2006 Third Millennium Systems LLC 31 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Heuristics Research Needed