1. Rabies Epidemiology in Raccoon dogs and foxes A Singer K Kauhala K Holmala GC Smith

2. Raccoon dogs invasive high population density Why successful ? omnivorous large litters hibernate (Photo: K. Kauhala)

3. Risk of persistent rabies in Finland Epidemiology is influenced by: Two vectors relative density inner- and inter-specific transmission Behavioural differences reproduction hibernation

4. Rac dog – Healthy Reproduction Mortality Hibernation Rac dog – Rabid Rac dog – Infected Reproduction Mortality Hibernation Infection Incubate Rac dog – Healthy Reproduction Mortality Hibernation Rac dog – Rabid Rac dog – Infected Reproduction Mortality Hibernation Infection Incubate Two vectors rabies disease model Fox – Healthy Reproduction Mortality Fox – Rabid Fox – Infected Reproduction Mortality Infection Incubate

5. Joint threshold density for rabies risk Threshold density for 70% risk in foxes Threshold density raccoon dogs Rabies risk below 70 %

6. Joint threshold density for rabies risk Rabies risk below 70 % Population densities (Southern Finland)

7. Scenarios for Vaccination Strategies Assessment of threshold 90% eradication success after 5 years Intended vaccination campaign 3 years spring and autumn vaccination 50% susceptibles are vaccinated Complications only foxes vaccinated spring vaccination too early for hibernating raccoon dogs no raccoon dog hibernation in warmer climates

8. Effects of vaccination - hibernation

13. Effects of vaccination – active in winter

15. Conclusion Both vector species are relevant Vaccination of foxes only is insufficient Late vaccination in spring Hibernation reduces risk of an outbreak Thank you for your attention !