1. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios Analytical tools: South Africa and MAPS experiences LEDS Collaboration in Action Workshop London, 21-23 March 2012 Marta Torres Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town (SA) MAPS Research Coordinator

2. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios The LTMS story Experience of South African Government mandated Long Term Mitigation Scenarios (2005-2008) Stakeholder-driven approach, reliance on scenarios, rigour of research and modelling Provide a robust evidence base that enable South African President to put forward a pledge in Copenhagen, for emissions to 'peak, plateau and decline' Informs domestic policy, completed in 2011 Internationally recognized as world-class best practice

3. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios LTMS Analytics

4. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios Collaboration amongst developing countries: contribute to common body of knowledge Government mandated country-wide assessments to explore pathways to a climate compatible economy Establish evidence base for long term transition to robust economies: carbon efficient & climate resilient Contribute to ambitious climate change mitigation that aligns economic development with poverty alleviation MAPS: Mitigation Action Plans & Scenarios

5. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios MAPS Analytics Discussion/Assessment of development Paths, before mitigation interventions Assessment of Mitigation Actions Discussion/Assessment of development paths, after mitigation interventions Discussion/Assessment of development Paths, before mitigation interventions Assessment of Mitigation Actions Discussion/Assessment of development paths, after mitigation interventions Exploring Approaches to mapping drivers: IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) Modelling approaches Optimisation/Simulation Sectoral models: LEAP, MARKAL, MESSAGE, IMACLIM, GLUE, IFSM, EXACT, asmGHG … System dynamics Economy-wide modeling More analytical tools Multi-criteria Analysis Action Impact Matrix (AIM) …

6. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios Tools, part of many other considerations Tools&A nalysis Management Information DecisionRaw data Ability to answer to key policy questions Tools Raw data … National context Legitimacy Consistency Evidence Decision Process design, including a research methodology for a specific team

7. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios Learnings Critical question: are your tools able to provide credible and legitimate results that have high utility value for policy-makers? INSIGHTS Country-driven, non- prescriptive methodology, ownership No right or wrong tools Different tools, different answers No single model fits everyone/everything Best available data Country-driven, non- prescriptive methodology, ownership No right or wrong tools Different tools, different answers No single model fits everyone/everything Best available data CHALLENGES Mitigation in the context of development Robust modeling across sectors and economy-wide analysis, in a time- constrained period International negotiations context and country-positions Mitigation in the context of development Robust modeling across sectors and economy-wide analysis, in a time- constrained period International negotiations context and country-positions ENABLERS Robust dataset thanks to stakeholder involvement Scenario-driven approaches High-level mandate Local experts using world-class methods Robust dataset thanks to stakeholder involvement Scenario-driven approaches High-level mandate Local experts using world-class methods

8. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios Main MAPS research work areas Socio-economic and environmental implications Sectoral modeling Mitigation Action country studies Equity Linking Methodologies (and models): pros, cons, implications Policy: context, institutionalization complexes, implementation Planning NAMA/LCDS interface Mitigation and Poverty: micro and macro Regional modeling COLLABORATION Discuss, learn, exchange among equals Avoid mistakes from other processes/countries Discuss, learn, exchange among equals Avoid mistakes from other processes/countries MORE CHALLENGES From evidence, to planning and to implementation, … and back to evidence Reference case Unknown technologies and human behavior patterns … From evidence, to planning and to implementation, … and back to evidence Reference case Unknown technologies and human behavior patterns …

9. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios Conclusions Are tools a bottleneck? A large number of developing and developed countries currently building plans and scenarios Tools accessibility important, but not necessarily key to make a change at country-level. Invest in the people, they will make a transformational change Process and research need to work together Main question for South Africa and MAPS countries is: can mitigation play a role in achieving socio-economic development goals, and how? --> Linking of GHG sectoral and economy-wide models is crucial for us Be able to get consensus, convince your policy-makers: use best research for a credible, legitimate and relevant evidence base

10. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios Thank you! For more information: MAPS - www.mapsprogramme.orgwww.mapsprogramme.org Marta Torres Gunfaus Marta.torresgunfaus@uct.ac.za Energy Research Center, University of Cape Town