1. Mike Evans NWS Binghamton, NY

2. Outline The checklist Example – April 28, 2011 Verification Summary / Conclusion

3. The main user interface

4. The analog finder

5. The analog comparison table

6. The analog data page

7. April 28, 2011

8. 500 mb heights and vorticity

9. RAP forecast sounding – AVP – valid 08z April 28

10. Checklist for April 28

11. Analogs for April 28

12. Table for the first analog

13. May 31, 1998

14. Radar – 0708z April 28, 2011

15. Radar – 0836z April 28

16. Verification Study Run the checklist for 81 cases from 2011-2013 Top analog for each case will be itself Examine characteristics of the next 4 analogs Sounding parameters Convective mode Identification of major vs. null events Tornadoes, floods, wind vs. hail dominance

17. CAPE

18. Average of 0-1, 0-3 and 0-6 km shear

19. Convective mode test – compare test event to corresponding analog Assign categories to all events– linear (solid, broken, short), isolated, multi-cell cluster Match – linear with linear, isolated with isolated Non-match – isolated with solid or broken line Non-definitive – all others

20. Convective mode

21. Report trends

22. Correlations

23. Definitions… Observed major event – any test case with at least 30 severe weather reports (11 events). Observed null event – any test case with one or fewer severe reports (23 events).

24. Observed major vs. observed null events

25. Definitions… Checklist flagged major event – any event when the analog-average number of reports was greater than or equal to 15. Checklist flagged null event – any event when the analog-average number of reports was less than 5.

26. Checklist major vs. checklist null events

27. Summary The BGM severe weather checklist helps forecasters assess the convective environment. The analog finder helps forecasters compare current events with similar historical events. Verification of the analog finder indicates that it can help to distinguish between major and minor events.