1. 11/23/2015 1 1 Residential Sector Load Forecast Impacts of Codes, Standards and Market Changes Preliminary Estimates June 19, 2002

2. 11/23/2015 2 2 Changes in Codes and Standards Improve “Baseline Efficiency” and Reduce Conservation Potential l Fourth Plan’s Conservation “Supply Curves” –Based on known codes and standards as of 1995 –Based on “market penetration” of efficient products as of 1995 l Federal standards, state energy codes and “current practice” for some technologies are known to have changed significantly since 1995

3. 11/23/2015 3 3 Changes Impacting Residential Sector Load Growth l Revised Washington State Energy Code - July 1, 2002 l Federal Standards –Clothes Washer: January 2004 and January 2007 –Water Heaters: January 2004 –Refrigerator/Freezers: July 2001 l Changes in Market/Current Practice –Energy Star Appliance: Refrigerator/Freezers, Dishwashers, Clothes Washers and Room Air Conditioners –Energy Star Windows: Class 35 or better –Energy Star Lighting: 5 million in 2001

4. 11/23/2015 4 4 Status of Efficiency Improvements (1) l Washington State Energy Code -Heat Pump path requires Class 40 windows - Clothes Washers – Current standard = MEF 0.816 -2004 = MEF 1.04 -2007 = MEF 1.26 - Water Heaters – Current standard = EF 0.86 (50 gal) -2004 = EF 0.90 (50 gal) - Refrigerator/Freezers – July 1, 2001 30% better than 1993 standard

5. 11/23/2015 5 5 Status of Efficiency Improvements (2) l Energy Star Appliance Market Share (as of Q1 of 2002) –Clothes Washers: 32% (Min. MEF 1.35) –Dishwashers: 25% (Min EF 0.58) –Refrigerators: 17% (Min 10% better than 7/1/01 stds.) –Room Air Conditioners: 14% (Min 10% than 10/1/01 stds.)

6. 11/23/2015 6 6 Status of Efficiency Improvements (3) l Energy Star Windows Market Share = 70% l Energy Star Lighting (CFLs) = 30% of households claim to have installed at least 1

7. 11/23/2015 7 7 Analytical Assumptions (1) l Analysis Period: 2001 – 2025 l PNW Households –2000 = 4.844 million – 2025 = 6.622 million l New Construction –SF = 1.317 million (347,000 electric heat) –MF = 520,500 (374,000 electric heat) –MH = 222,540 (169,000 electric heat)

8. 11/23/2015 8 8 Analytical Assumptions (2) l Product Average Lifetimes –Refrigerator/Freezer = 19 years –Clothes Washer = 14 years –Dishwasher = 9 years –Room AC = 9 years –Energy Star Windows = 50+ years –CFL = 3 – 5 years –Water Heaters = 10 years

9. 11/23/2015 9 9 Analytical Assumptions (3) l Market Saturation in 2025 (PRELIMINARY!) –Refrigerator = 115% –Freezer = 60% –Clothes Washer = 95% –Clothes Dryer = 90% –Dishwasher = 80% –Room AC = 15% –Electric Water Heaters = 55%

10. 11/23/2015 10 Analytical Assumptions (4) l Average life of all “existing” appliances is less than forecast period – ALL WILL BE REPLACED l Average life of all “new appliances” added before new federal standards take affect is less than forecast period – ALL WILL BE REPLACED

11. 11/23/2015 11 Savings (1) MeasureMarket Share Busbar Savings (kWh/yr) Savings by 2025 Refrigerator-Std.83% 228 165 Freezer-Std90% 82 33 EStar Refrigerator17% 48 7 EStar Freezer10% 32 1 Clothes Washer- Std 68% 308 150 EStar Clothes Washer 32% 344 79

12. 11/23/2015 12 Savings(2) MeasureMarket Share Busbar Savings (kWh/yr) Savings by 2025 Dishwasher -EF5275% 54 24 EStar Dishwasher (EF58) 25% 121 22 Water Heater-Std.100% 140 48 Room AC-Std86% 80 8 EStar Room AC14% 42 1

13. 11/23/2015 13 Savings(3) MeasureMarket ShareBusbar Savings(kWh/yr) Savings by 2025 EStar Windows (New Construction) SF70% 642 18 MF70% 476 14 MH70% 1,144 15 WSEC Code Change Cl45>Cl40 30% 860 21

14. 11/23/2015 14 Savings – The Final (PRELIMINARY) Number 625 aMW