1. SUSTAINABLE CITIES U.S.-Australia Dialogue, 1-19-11 White Roofs to Cool your Buildings, and Cities and (this is new) Cool our Planet Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Former Commissioner California Energy Commission. Distinguished Scientist Emeritus Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. AHRosenfeld@LBL.gov 510 495-2227 Presentation available at www.ArtRosenfeld.orgwww.ArtRosenfeld.org File: ABA Webinar 1-11-11 from ET Summit Sac’to from Philomathia3 Berkeley and CITRIS i4E

2. 2 2 Summer in the city 2 summer urban heat island

3. Chicago Heat Wave 1995, 739 Deaths Virtually all of the deaths occurred on the top floors of buildings with black roofs 3

4. European Heat Wave 2003, 30,000 Deaths France July 2010, Few Deaths 4

5. 5 5 Bird’s eye view of urban land use ~ 1 km 2 The surface of Sacramento, CA is about 20% roofs 30% vegetation 40% pavement 5

6. 6 6 Reflective roofs stay cooler in the sun 50 40 30 20 10 0 0.00.20.40.60.8 1.0 Temperature Rise (°C) Galvanized Steel IR-Refl. Black Black Paint Green Asphalt Shingle Red Clay Tile Lt. Red Paint Lt. Green Paint White Asphalt Shingle Al Roof Coat. Optical White White Paint White Cement Coat. Solar Absorptance

7. White roofs around the world

8. 8 8 …in Santorini, Greece 8

9. 9 9 …in Hyderabad, India …and widely in the state of Gujarat, India. 9

10. 10 Walmart store in northern California 10

11. 11 Congratulations to UC Davis 11

12. 12 White roofs are popular in Tucson, AZ 12

13. 13 Washington, DC (Federal) has problems 13

14. 14 Pentagon

15. Cooling our planet

16. 16 Solar-reflective surfaces cool the globe via “negative radiative forcing” Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 16

17. 17 GLOBAL COOLING: making 100 m 2 (1000 ft 2 ) of gray roofing white offsets the emission of 10 t of CO 2

18. 18 How much CO 2 equivalent is offset if we whiten all eligible urban flat roofs world- wide? (i/ii) Answer: 24 Gigatonnes (Gt) –2/3 of a year’s worldwide emission –Gigatonne = billion metric tons If implemented over 20 years (the life of a roof or a program) this is ≈ 1.2 Gt/year.

19. 19 How much CO 2 equivalent is offset if we whiten all eligible urban flat roofs world-wide? (ii/ii) Offset is equivalent to taking 300 million cars off the road for 20 years. –There are about 600 million passenger cars world wide, and they each emit ≈ 4 t CO 2 /year.

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21. 21 Progress in energy efficiency standards In 2005, California’s “Title 24” energy efficiency standards prescribed white surfaces for low-sloped roofs on commercial buildings. Several hot states are following. In 2008, California prescribed “cool colored” surfaces for steep residential roofs in its 5 hottest climate zones. Other U.S. states & all countries with hot summers should follow.

22. 22 Recent cool roof progress (2005 – 2011) 2005 –California Title 24 – “Flat roofs shall be white” (15 out of 16 climate zones). Walmart adopts white roofs for ALL stores. –EPA ENERGY STAR lists Cool Roof Materials 2010 –June 1 st, 2010 – Memo from U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu calls for all DOE Buildings to have white roofs, if cost-effective –June 16 th, 2010 – Marine Corp follows suit, Pentagon following slowly –June 19 th, 2010 – RetroFIT Philly announces winner of “coolest block” contest to white-coat black roofs of row houses. 2011 –100 Cool Cities launched – see www.WhiteRoofsAlliance.orgwww.WhiteRoofsAlliance.org –Spring 2011 – US will launch, at G20 Energy Ministers meeting, a voluntary Cool Roofs initiative and may even offer technical assistance to developing countries who join early.

23. To come 2012… Model codes will be modified to prescribe “flat roofs shall be white” –ASHRAE for commercial buildings –EECC for residential buildings But states and cities have to adopt model codes 23

24. 24 100 Cool Cities could unite many initiatives and trade associations

25. 25 Resources on the web Art Rosenfeld’s website –ArtRosenfeld.org Cool Colors Project – CoolColors.LBL.gov Heat Island Group – HeatIsland.LBL.gov Cool Communities Project – CoolCommunities.LBL.gov Roof Savings Calculator – RoofCalc.com White Roofs Alliance − WhiteRoofsAlliance.org Cool Roof Rating Council −CoolRoofs.org Cool California – CoolCalifornia.org EPA Heat Islands – epa.gov/heatisland Energy Star Cool Roofs – EnergyStar.gov January 2011

26. Energy Efficiency & Demand Response 26

27. E/GDP = thousand Btu/$ (in $2000) 1970, First Earth Day ArtRosenfeld@gmail.comArtRosenfeld@gmail.com or PatMcAuliffe@sbcglobal.net 27

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32. 32 Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE, in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, www.eceee.org 75% 60% 25% 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006 Year Index (1972 = 100) Effective Dates of National Standards = Effective Dates of State Standards = Refrigerators Central A/C Gas Furnaces SEER = 13

33. 33 Source: David Goldstein, NRDC, SF

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35. 35 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 3 Gorges 三峡 Refrigerators 冰箱 Air Conditioners 空调 TWh 2000 Stds 2005 Stds If EnergyStar TWH/Year 1.5 4.5 6.0 3.0 7.5 Value (billion $/year) Comparison of 3 Gorges to Refrigerator and AC Efficiency Improvements Savings calculated 10 years after standard takes effect. Calculations provided by David Fridley, LBNL Value of TWh 3 Gorges 三峡 Refrigerators 冰箱 Air Conditioners 空调 Wholesale (3 Gorges) at 3.6 c/kWh Retail (AC + Ref) at 7.2 c/kWh 三峡电量与电冰箱、空调能效对比 标准生效后，10年节约电量

36. 36 United States Refrigerator Use, repeated, to compare with Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 19471949195119531955195719591961196319651967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009 Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh per year) Refrigerator Use per Unit 1978 Cal Standard 1990 Federal Standard 1987 Cal Standard 1980 Cal Standard 1993 Federal Standard 2001 Federal Standard Estimated Standby Power (per house) 2007 STD.

37. The residential energy consumption due to televisions rapidly increased from 3-4% in 1990s to 8-10% in 2008. Television energy will grow up to 18% by 2023 without regulations. The projected growth does not include the residential energy use by cable boxes, DVD players, internet boxes, Blue Ray, game consoles etc. Televisions Represent Significant Energy Use 37

38. Technically Feasible Standards Each point may represent several TV models *Consumers can expect to save between $ 50 - $ 250 over the life of their TV *A 50 inch plasma can consume as little as 307 kWh/yr and as much as 903 kWh/yr 38

39. General Purpose Lighting – Proposed Regulations (cont.) Rated Lumens RangeMaximum rated Wattage Minimum Rated Life Time Proposed California Effective Date 1490-2600 Lumens100  72 Watts1,000 hoursJan, 1, 2011 1050-1489Lumens75  53 Watts1,000 hoursJan 1, 2012 750-1049 Lumens60  43 Watts1,000 hoursJan 1, 2013 310-749 Lumens40  29 Watts1,000 hoursJan 1, 2013 Proposed Table K-8: Standards for State-regulated General Services Incandescent Lamps -Tier I Lumens RangeMaximum Lamp Efficacy Minimum Rated Life Time Proposed California Effective Date All45 lumens per watt1,000 hoursJan, 1, 2018 Proposed Table K-9: Standards for State-regulated General Services Lamps -Tier II

40. Abatement cost <$50/ton U.S. mid-range abatement curve – 2030 Source:McKinsey analysis 0 30 60 90 -120 -220 -30 -60 -90 3.2 0 Cost Real 2005 dollars per ton CO 2 e 1.01.21.41.82.00.22.22.42.62.83.01.60.40.60.8 -230 Residential electronics Commercial electronics Residential buildings – Lighting Commercial buildings – LED lighting Fuel economy packages – Cars Commercial buildings – CFL lighting Cellulosic biofuels Industry – Combined heat and power Existing power plant conversion efficiency improvements Conservation tillage Fuel economy packages – Light trucks Commercial buildings – Combined heat and power Coal mining – Methane mgmt Commercial buildings – Control systems Distributed solar PV Residential buildings – Shell retrofits Nuclear new- build Natural gas and petroleum systems management Active forest management Afforestation of pastureland Reforestation Winter cover crops Onshore wind – Medium penetration Coal power plants – CCS new builds with EOR Biomass power – Cofiring Onshore wind – High penetration Industry – CCS new builds on carbon- intensive processes Coal power plants – CCS new builds Coal power plants – CCS rebuilds Coal-to-gas shift – dispatch of existing plants Car hybridi- zation Commercial buildings – HVAC equipment efficiency Solar CSP Residential buildings – HVAC equipment efficiency Industria l process improve- ments Residential water heaters Manufacturing – HFCs mgmt Residential buildings – New shell improvements Coal power plants– CCS rebuilds with EOR Potential Gigatons/year Commercial buildings – New shell improvement s Afforestation of cropland Onshore wind – Low penetration 40

41. Demand Response 41

42. 42 California is a Summer Peaking Area

43. 43 Three Necessary Components for Demand Response (The low-tech half of the smart grid; no Gee Whiz reliability) Advanced Metering Infrastructure--recorded hourly –Digital meters with communication; readings available in near-real time Dynamic Tariffs –Enable customers to be able to respond to hourly prices –The structure of these tariffs is critically important as customers are hoping to reduce total energy costs Automated Response Technology at customer locations –Enable residential and small commercial customers to respond to price automatically –Larger customers with energy management systems linked to pricing signals over the internet or through other communication channels And, when coupled with energy efficiency programs and policies the result can be reduction in total consumption as well as peak period consumption

44. 44 Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) with Time of Use (TOU) ? Direct customer savings comes mainly be response to TOU. Customer response to CPP is mainly civic pride but avoids utility investment and expensive peak infrastructure. Prices are designed such that the average non-responder sees no bill change.

45. 45 Average Residential Response to Critical Peak Pricing kW 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Noon2:307:30Midnight CPP Event CPP with Controllable Thermostat Control Group Fixed Incentive with Controllable Thermostat 69% 65% 73% 61% 69% 22% 30% 20% 26% 17% 0%20406080100% Total TOU CPP-F CPP-V Info Only 91% 93% 87% 86% Should dynamic rates be offered to all customers? Definitely Probably 95% Key Results from Residential Pilot 12% average load reduction for CPP rate alone Up to 40% with rate + enabling tech Most participants preferred the pilot rates

46. 46 Automated Demand Response Commercial Customers * Source: Demand Response Research Center, Global Energy Partners

47. Smart thermostat with universal communications interface at rear Source: Tim Simons, Golden Power

48. Smart thermostat with U-SNAP Interface Advantages of this configuration: 1.Customer decides 2.Flexible 3.“plug and play” 4.Capable of conveying lots of information Source: Tim Simons, Golden Power