1. Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Rain Annimac www.annimac.com.au 2004 APOGCE Meeting Needs – Leading Change 19 October 2004 1400-1530 Speaker Special Session Future Trends Special Session Future Trends

3. The Three Wise Monkeys The Three Wise Monkeys The Oil Companies : - hear no depletionThe Oil Companies : - hear no depletion Governments & International Agencies : - see no depletionGovernments & International Agencies : - see no depletion And all agree it would be best to : - talk no depletionAnd all agree it would be best to : - talk no depletion

5. Typical Oil Depletion Curve Norway (North Sea) Werner Zittel, LBST

6. 2004 www.SimmonsCo-Intl.com The Saudi Reserves are Seriously Overstated Matthew Simmons. February 2004

7. Oil & Gas Journal April 12, 2004 Douglas - Westwood Ltd Cambridge UK Study : World oil forecast beset with reserves shortfalls 2004 2016

8. ASPO Newsletter 40, April 2004 www.PeakOil.net Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas Oil discovery Oil production Forecast ?

10. Data from IHS Energy and OGJ annual reports IHS and O & GJ Remaining Reserves Francis Harper ASPO 2004, Berlin www.PeakOil.net

12. Why are oil depletion forecasts being down played? " Do you wish to : Kill your career Kill your career Head the redundancy list Head the redundancy list Be blamed for starting the panic ? " Be blamed for starting the panic ? " Chris Skrebowski Institute of Petroleum www.PeakOil.net Institute of Petroleum www.PeakOil.net

13. Rate of Change Rate of Change every 5 seconds : new web siteevery 5 seconds : new web site every 5 minutes : new technologyevery 5 minutes : new technology every 5 days : new product / service Amount of change now in one day our Grandparents had in one year

15. Technology : in 2020 70 % of types of jobs do not exist now because 80 % of technology not yet conceived Driving all Drivers of Change

16. Gap widening : Knowledge Haves / have nots Age generations Globally networked Speed of Change : Social Trends

17. Based on Technology Access Skill Not wealth 50 % population no phone call Gap : Haves - Have Nots

18. Gap : Age Generations Gap : Age Generations Four generations : Three worlds Baby Boomers 45 – 60 yrs Materialism authority : in - defer economic rationalists : profit material values : tangibles science as religion : rational Generation X 30 – 45 yrs clones of Boomers : materialists copy younger : sustainability

19. Four generations : Three worlds DotComs 15 - 30 yrs Sustainability global identity co opitalism relationships holistic win - win – win Ferals 0 – 15 yrs Virtual no limits no boundaries parallel universes beyond our imagining create what need Gap : Age Generations

20. Gap : Globally Networked Gap : Globally Networked access all knowledge empowered confident passionately committed global view future

21. Impact for OG Industry Impact for OG Industry transiting two worlds - accelerating values attitude shifts sustainability Big Rollover value driven cooperation not competition young non negotiators relationships : consumers partners innovators

22. Thank you www.annimac.com.au Thank you www.annimac.com.au www.annimac.com.au

23. Very special note of appreciation to Bruce Robinson www.STCwa.org.au for his impeccable knowledge regarding global Oil Depletion and his generosity in sharing it. Thank you, Bruce. annimac