1. The Effect of Geographic Area on Graduation Rates.

2. New census data reveals that the size of the geographic area of a state is inversely related to the number of residents of that state who graduate from college. In other words, the larger the state, the fewer people graduate from college.

3. Scientists call this phenomenon the geographical dispersion effect, because all of the knowledge is dispersed over a larger area.

4. As the chart below indicates, the large geographic size of Texas causes the state to have significantly lower graduation rates than New York or California. Percentage of Population with College Degree Area of State (sq. miles) Source: U.S. Census Bureau

5. “ All this desert and cows are just distracting. Its hard to concentrate on school,” says an unidentified farmer.

6. President George W. Bush has taken notice of the effect, and has included it as part of his new mandates for education.

7. President Bush Contemplates a Reduction in the Size of Texas “In this small model of Texas, graduation rates are nearly 100%” – President Bush

8. “The more we shrink these states, the more oil we can squeeze out of them. I can’t wait to get started on Alaska.” “There’s sure gonna be some smart folks up there.”

9. End Onward to the explanation.

10. An explanation of the show. This presentation illustrated the improper use of statistics, by using statistics to reach an absurd conclusion. “If we shrink a state, we can raise graduation rates.”

11. An explanation of the show. But, we can observe the same erroneous methods used every day, in newspapers, magazines, and television. Let’s take a look at some of the methods used.

12. An explanation of the show. First, we have the chart with no numbers. A chart with no numbers doesn’t really show anything at all.

13. An explanation of the show. Next, we have a scientist, and some fancy words, the “geographical dispersion effect”. An expert and fancy words do not turn garbage into science.

14. An explanation of the show. Finally, we reach the heart of our show, the graph. Two things are happening here. 1.The graph is drawn to make a relationship look bigger. 2.The two statistics have absolutely no causal relationship with each other.

15. An explanation of the show. These statistics come from giant charts with many hundreds of figures. It is a simple matter to find some figures that just happen to show a numerical relationship to each other.

16. An explanation of the show. So, we searched through the pile of numbers to find an instance of California having a number between Texas and New York. With a computer, and a good data base programmer, we could have sifted through millions of sets of government data and found numerous convincing yet thoroughly bogus relationships.

17. An explanation of the show. A malicious person could simply look through census data, and find random data associating some racial, ethnic, or socio- economic group with some unfavorable behavior.

18. An explanation of the show. Next, notice how the graph is drawn to make the fake relationship look even bigger. This is called a truncated graph. The actual figures run between 23 and 27 percent, but the graph makes it look like a enormous difference between Texas and New York.

19. An explanation of the show. Next, we have this nice old farmer to back our case up. Why would he lie? I sure am getting smarter ever since they shrunk up my farm.

20. An explanation of the show. Finally, a word from our executive branch seals the case. Pizza, anyone?

21. References Huff, D. (1954). How to lie with statistics. New York: W. W. Norton and Company. U. S. Census Bureau. (2006). State and county quick facts. Retrieved 01/14/2008 from http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/index.html