1. Marine Core Service MY OCEAN WP 7 Monitoring & Forecasting Centre for NWS

2. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Reminder - Partnership ~ 2 mn

3. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Reminder - Objectives for R&D n Main objective is n Transitioning to the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) n Develop assimilation techniques for use in tidal shelf seas n Investigate new methods for specifying river flows and Baltic boundary conditions n Main issues n NEMO has never been used in tidal applications n Tidal shelf seas create a major scientific and technical problem in terms of assimilation n The problem is more constrained by the surface and coastal inputs, and (generally) more dynamic n The phase alignment of model and data n Data density may prove problematic

4. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma R&D : main achievements n Main achievements are: n NEMO non-linear free surface with SST data assimilation n Horizontal Pressure Gradients – good improvements n Hybrid Z*-S-σ give good vertical coordinate framework n Improved formulation for river inputs n Progress to an assimilative 4 km ROMS for backup system (unfunded work) n Main difficulties n NEMO less mature than anticipated for S-coordinate, non-linear free surface modelling n Assimilation in tidal waters is non-trivial (high space-time frequency features in a data sparse environment) n Remaining activities/objectives n Complete ROMS backup development (unfunded work) n BAL MFC boundary input sensitivity studies n Sensitivity to river inputs from E-HYPE hydrological model

5. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma R&D : Data assimilation SST assimilation: Both satellite & in-situ. Optimal interpolation scheme adapted for tidal physics New observation operator that can deal with s- coordinates Includes SST, T&S profiles New covariances calculated especially for the shelf Example increments 24/9/2007

6. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Data Assimilation in S-coords Observation operator: method Old method 2 horizontal interpolations (bilinear) 1 vertical interpolation (cubic spline) Fast ~0.014ms for test profile Can’t deal with irregular depth levels New method 4 vertical interpolations (cubic spline) 1 horizontal interpolation (bilinear) Identical results to the old method when depth levels are regular. Can deal with irregular depth levels. ~4x Slower. ~0.051ms for test profile

7. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma R&D : Vertical coordinates Use of Song and Haidvogel S-σ stretching. Uses geopotential (Z) levels at high coordinate slope Minimises coordinate slope errors whilst maintaining vertical resolution. In practice a small number of cells <<1% intersect with sea bed small loss of active cells vs significant improvements in numerical accuracy Schematic on the Z*-S-σ coordinate system. Note: this over-emphasises the “disappearing” coordinates for illustrative purposes

8. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma n The S-coordinate Pressure Gradient Error problem Pressure Gradient Errors in hybrid Z*-S coordinates Surface velocity green=0cm/s, red=+20cm/s, blue=-20cm/s POLCOMS Z-interpolation NEMO Pressure Jacobian (Hedong Liu, NOC) NEMO +hybrid Z/S coords

9. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma MyOcean NWS System Development and Maintenance 1/4º Global NEMO FOAM 1/12º N. Atlantic NEMO FOAM Shelf Seas 12km Atlantic Margin Shelf Seas 6km MRCS including ERSEM VO – early 2009 System fully operational now Extensive verification of system (model and delivery) NEMO Shelf 6km incl ERSEM System under development Extensive verification of new system (model and delivery) V1 – early 2011 transitioning to use NEMO code improved freshwater sources inclusion of data assimilation increased vertical resolution improved visibility estimates Maintain present POLCOMS operational system NOMINAL RT SYSTEM AT MET OFFICE Implement NEMO R&D as operational system

10. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma ROMS Nordic 4km incl NORWECOM, MI-IM MyOcean NWS System Development and Maintenance 1/4º Global NEMO FOAM 1/12º N. Atlantic NEMO FOAM VO – early 2009 System fully operational now Extensive verification of system (model and delivery) System under development System and service integration in synergy with WP5, WP14 Same cal/val as for Nominal RT system V1 – early 2011 transitioning to use ROMS code improved freshwater sources inclusion of data assimilation increased vertical resolution nesting in NEMO FOAM / TOPAZ couple ROMS – MIIM - NORWECOM (with IMR) BACKUP RT SYSTEM AT MET.NO

11. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma IMR: NWS development and maintenance Implementation of ECOHAM4 meso- and micro-zooplankton module in NORWECOM hindcast simulation and validation of updated model evaluation of the use of daily run- off from an hydrological model (OPERR) MyOcean NWS System Development and Maintenance

12. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma MyOcean NWS System Development and Maintenance NERC-NOC: NWS development and maintenance Hindcast (1960-2004) database: Physical data delivered via Met office POLCOMS-ERSEM 12km atlantic margin model Validated using ~300,000 CTD profiles NEMO version in preparation

13. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Dev. & Maint. : main achievements n Main achievements are n Implementation of nominal and backup forecast production systems n Implementation of MyOcean dissemination at met.no and Met Office n Developing hindcast products to meet MyOcean standard formats n Service infrastructure across two dissemination units and four production units n Main difficulties n Parallel developing of central systems made specification of interfaces difficult n Transitioning to new modelling systems (ROMS/NEMO) n Remaining tasks n transition of backup forecast system to assimilative ROMS n Respond to validation in production by: n improving service infrastructure n improving production infrastructure n Improving quality of products

14. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Reminder - Objectives for Production n Objectives, Products, Difficulties, … n To manage the production chain of NWS nominal and backup RT operational models n To make available nominal RT (Met Office) and backup RT (met.no) products n To make available hindcast products (NERC, IMR) n IMR internationally renowned for services to fisheries based on model and observational services combined n POL have experience in operational delivery with particular experience in shelf hydrodynamics n Steps, risks, V0, V1, issues, … n To transition to NEMO from POLCOMS for the nominal RT at V1 n To transition to ROMS for backup RT system n To implement MyOcean delivery mechanisms n MyOcean requires software that Met services will not allow inside their firewalls n Met service developments for delivery running in parallel, rather than complementing, MyOcean delivery services n Transitioning users to new delivery mechanisms too quickly

15. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Production : main achievements n Main achievements are n NWS attracts more users than other regional MFCs (32 in last month) n NWS new users are increasing month-on-month (20 in Feb, 77 discrete users to end March) n Production systems are operational n Documentation in place n Service infrastructure implemented n End-to-end production in real-time is happening and robust n Production monitoring is implemented n Service monitoring is implemented n Main difficulties n Implementing MyOcean standard production infrastructure n Remaining objectives n Ensure service infrastructure in operations works as expected n Validation phase ResearchCommercial Government/ International 321816

16. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Reminder - Objectives for Cal / Val n Objectives, difficulties, … n implement operational assessment (cal/val) activities n produce GODAE metrics like system assessments n homogenise assessments where possible n Create user focused quality understanding of product quality n Steps, risks, issues, … n WP7 has a strong partnership based on NOOS with experience in model evaluation – use this experience n Organisations in WP7 are known for operational control of services, including monitoring and verification n Implementing automatic cal/val with sensible metrics is not straight forward n Lack of available data, especially in RT, in the NWS region may limit assessments

17. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Cal/Val : main achievements n Main achievements are n Collaboration on cal/val increasingly successful, through NWS Meetings etc. n Using expertise and observations from WP7 partners around the North Sea to assess product quality in regional waters n Despite lack of data, successful calibration of biogeochemical parameters n Introduction of GODAE class 4 metrics for quantifying accuracy n Common metrics implemented (NOOS transports, regional assessments) n Main difficulties n Sparsity of sub-surface observations, particularly real-time: impossible to define sensible sub-surface metrics n Lack of observations of currents and biogeochemistry n Remaining tasks n Refinement of real-time validation procedure for BCG products n Homogenising assessment across the PUs n IBI/NWS intercomparison

18. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Main Challenges n Scientific Challenges –Validation of biogeochemical parameters in real-time –Shelf-scale data assimilation –Developing quality metrics n Technical Challenges –Making use of available river observations and/or models n Operational Challenges –Timely receipt, QC and monitoring of forcing data (boundary, atmospheric, river …) and assimilation data –Complex service infrastructure in operations –Adapting present monitoring of operational services to MyOcean monitoring n Ultimate Challenges … –Delivering a service that users trust and rely on

19. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma n Scientific Challenges –Coupled atmosphere/wave/ocean –Biogeochemical model improvements –Wetting-and-drying –Eddy resolving resolution –Data assimilation beyond SST in tidal waters n Technical Challenges –Ensure new (“advanced”) delivery systems are as robust and trusted as well established (“basic”) systems –Delivering long time-series of high frequency data as requested by users n Operational Challenges –Receiving sufficient real-time observations in the NWS n Ultimate Challenges … –Defining a clear direction for the MyOcean service that meets the user and EC requirements –Improving the service (products and systems) in response to user requirements n Main Risks Future Challenges

20. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma n Past (event, work or tasks achieved) : –October 2010: NEMO accepted for operations by Met Office WGOS –November 2010 : NEMO operational in parallel system –February 2011 : Quality upgrades to parallel system –March 2011 : Calibration completed, quality exceeds V0 system –March 2011 : PC Acceptance completed n Future : –June 2011 : V1.1 system released to users –September 2011 : ROMS upgrade for acceptance. V2 upgrade OK?? –Continued service improvements (quality, infrastructure, service) Calendar

21. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma WP 11 EXPENSES Actual (March2010) Variance versus Budget Comments K€ % Coordination + 5+ 10%More… R&D - 10- 2%Less… Dev/Maint. Production Cal/Val WP Coordination 1st reporting period : Budget  Figures will be provided by PMO as soon as your partners have finished reporting and will be added to your presentation.  Be ready to give short explanations on main deviances during your presentation...  We are talking about estimated budget (best estimates) ! ~ 2 mn

22. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Temperature … illustrations…

23. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Chlorophyll … illustrations… n Onset of the spring bloom in March 2011 n Frontal regions evident