1. 1 Severe Winter in Central and Eastern Europe

2. 2 February 2005 Snow and freezing temperatures since January 1 st have been causing increasing difficulties in daily life particularly affecting transport and infrastructure throughout central and Eastern Europe. As one newspaper put it, “The world between Kiev, Minsk, and Berlin is frozen.” 09:30, February 1 st Several weather centers throughout the region predict a major snowstorm to blanket the area over the next 2 to 3 days, which is expected to drop from 60cm to a meter of fresh snow on the region.

3. 3 16:00, February 1 st Russian energy officials announce that, due to severe stress on their power generating and distribution, it is necessary to curtail power exports by 50% to 60% over the next few weeks. 01:00, February 3 rd Heavy snows blanket the area. All major roads in the region are blocked, with efforts to clear them delayed for at least 3 days. 09:00, February 3 rd Ministry of Agriculture officials in Minsk, Kiev, and Chisinau report that large portions of their nation’s livestock population are in jeopardy from lack of fodder and the damage of freezing. Aircraft for dropping fodder to isolated herds are not adequate.

4. 4 15:00, February 3 rd Power blackouts are being reported with increasing frequency throughout the area. 16:00, February 3 rd Weather centrals predict at least 48 hours of snow throughout the region followed by at least a week of sub-zero weather. 17:00, February 3 rd All major east-west and north-south roads links are closed. Thousands of long distance trucks are stalled along the highways, and intra-city transport is in danger of closing.

5. 5 09:00, February 4 Status reports from all 3 capitals summarize the situation as follows: –The power supply and grid are, or are in danger of, failing in most areas –Road links (inter and intra) are basically closed –Communications systems are beginning to fail with the likelihood of repairs slim –Air travel with the region has halted –The entire agricultural structure is endangered –Food supplies in the cities are becoming increasingly limited and the first deaths from cold weather exposure are being reported