1. Incorporating Climate Change in USAID Projects Joel B. Smith Stratus Consulting Inc. 1-303-381-8218 jsmith@stratusconsulting.com Dr. Kenneth Strzepek University of Colorado Ruhiza Jean Boroto Source Strategic Focus (Pty) Ltd.

2. USAID Considering Ways of Incorporating Climate Change into Project Planning, Design, and Management  Stratus Consulting is working with USAID on:  Developing guidance for AID on methods for incorporating climate change  Testing methods in three pilot studies  Will revise guidance based on lessons learned

3. Pilot Studies  Examine incorporation of climate change in planned or ongoing USAID projects  Work with stakeholders to define objectives, identify adaptations, and review results  Use in-country analysts to conduct research  Will develop implementation plans  Pilots:  Polokwane, South Africa: Water supplies  La Ceiba, Honduras: Flooding and coastal erosion  Mali: Agriculture (specific project TBD)  I’ll briefly discuss Polokwane and La Ceiba

4. Polokwane, South Africa  Concern is with long- term water supplies

5. Polokwane, South Africa  Water is transferred to the city  Polokwane is growing  Planning has not considered climate change  Climate models indicate potential for reduced runoff and soil moisture

6. Polokwane Study  Use a broad suite of climate change scenarios to capture possible changes in climate  Estimate changes in water demand from population and economic growth  Examine climate change effects on runoff and demand  DWAF will examine implications and adaptations using their planning model  Will meet with stakeholders to examine results and adaptation  Will develop implementation plan with AID Mission and stakeholders

7. La Ceiba, Honduras

8. La Ceiba Scope  Concerns about flooding, poor drainage, coastal erosion  Already serious issues  We are working with municipal planners, business community, and NGOs in La Ceiba

9. La Ceiba Project  We’ll develop scenarios of  Sea level rise  Intense hurricanes  Intense rains  Based on increases in temperature, not model output  Working with stakeholders and regional researchers on analyzing adaptations  Will develop implementation plan

10. I hope we can present results next year