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FASTER, MORE INCLUSIVE AND GREENER GROWTH World Bank Group Country Partnership Strategy October 2010
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I.Recent Accomplishments II. Development Challenges III.World Bank Group Support Contents
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Recent Accomplishments Strong track record of macroeconomic stability Improved business environment Accelerating growth prior to crisis Improving social and human development indicators I.
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Strong track record on macroeconomic stability, moderate public and external debt 4 as % of GDP SEE includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia Source: World Economic Outlook, October 2010, Online database
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Improved business environment and pick-up in investments 5 SEE refers to: see Notes on Slide 4 Source: Doing Business ReportSource: State Statistics Office
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Accelerating growth prior to crisis and mild impact of the crisis 6 Real GDP growth SEE refers to: see Notes on Slide 4 Source: World Economic Outlook, October 2010, Online database
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Improving key social and human development indicators Life expectancy is increasing and infant mortality is declining Enrollment is increasing rapidly in secondary and tertiary education 7 Source: State Statistics Office Source: UN Human Development Report
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Context Challenges to: - Faster growth - More inclusive growth - Greener growth Development Challenges II.
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Medium-term country development context: challenging post-crisis environment - Tighter financing constraints - Below potential growth of main developed partners - Significant uncertainties anchored in country’s EU accession process - Stimulate exports and investments - Main driver for reforms - Largest donor Context 9
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Context Strategy to meet development objectives: Faster growth by improving competitiveness. More inclusive growth by strengthening employability and social protection. Greener growth through more sustainable use of resources and direct climate action. 10
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I. Faster growth Challenge: Create jobs Unemployment began to fall prior to crisis But jobs have been low-paid Post-crisis recovery could be jobless 11 Source: Labor Force Survey, State Statistics Office
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Ease of DB3269 Starting a Business613 Construction Permits138151 Employing Workers58122 Registering Property6388 Getting Credit4341 Protecting Investors2088 Paying Taxes2628 Trading Across Borders6263 Enforcing Contracts6462 Closing a Business115131 Biggest problems of doing business: Access to finance Courts Tax rates Corruption Doing BusinessBEEPS I. Faster growth Challenge: Improve business environment 12 Source: Doing Business Report Source: WB/EBRD BEEPS At-A-Glance 2008
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I. Faster growth Challenge: Build skills Quality of education needs to improve at all levels Access issues still exist R&D spending should be reconsidered 13 Source: WB/EBRD BEEPS At-A-Glance 2008
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II. More inclusive growth Challenge: Reduce poverty Poverty is “sticky” - growth has not translated into lower poverty The global crisis and slower-growth in the future pose further challenges 14 Source: World Bank Staff calculations based on 2008 HBS data from the State Statistics Office
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II. More inclusive growth Challenge: Strengthen social protection Benefits only help moderate poverty System needs to be streamlined and consolidated Number of programs remain categorical 15 Source: World Bank Staff calculations based on 2008 HBS data from the State Statistics Office
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II. More inclusive growth Challenge: Improve health service delivery Health indicators remain below EU levels Effectiveness and efficiency needs to increase 16
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III. Greener growth Challenge: Deal with climate change 17 ECA Countries with greatest vulnerability and exposure to climate change in the 21 st century: Macedonia ranks 5 th on exposure in ECA
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III. Greener growth Challenge: Improve water management Pressures on water supply and water sector administration are growing About 75 percent of the country is classified as semi-arid By 2030, the average river run-off is projected to fall by 25 percent. 18
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III. Greener growth Challenge: Energy supply and efficiency Fossil fuels account for more than 80% energy consumption GHG emissions per unit of GDP are about 2.5 times higher than EU15 average Energy consumption per capita is low but per unit of GDP is high 19
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International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) International Finance Corporation (IFC) World Bank Group Support World Bank Group Support III.
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Current IBRD program 21 The current portfolio includes 14 loans and four grants totaling US$337.4 million in commitments
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IBRD Program for 2011-2014 (Program for 2013-2014 TBD) 22 Virtually every activity will be designed to help prepare for EU membership Development Policy Lending (budget support) Investment Lending (energy, catastrophic risk insurance) Lending of about $50 million p.a. Labor Markets; Poverty Competitiveness; Science and Technology Green Growth; Agriculture and Climate Change Health Water Sector Assessment Analytical and Advisory Activities
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Current IFC Program 23 Historical commitments: US$182 mil. Current portfolio: US$88 mil. 4 active projects (loans and equity) power distribution, banking, telecoms 5 active advisory programs 5 active advisory programs (total funding >US$ 5 mil) corporate governance, international standards, mediation, solid waste management, renewable energy IFC PPP Transaction Advisory IFC PPP Transaction Advisory (PPP Hydro power: Chebren and Galishte) Business Environment Business Environment (Doing Business Report, regulatory reform) IFC Investments: IFC Advisory Services
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IFC program for 2011-2014 24 IFC investment targets by 2014 Double the portfolio; new investments >US$100 million: Real Sectors Real Sectors - agribusiness, construction materials, pharmaceuticals, health & education, regional South-South Investments Financial Sector Financial Sector - Loans to SMEs, agribusiness, energy efficiency, trade finance Infrastructure/Energy Infrastructure/Energy - Renewables, waste, water supply, municipal finance IFC PPP Transaction Advisory: hydro-power generation, wind farms, road operation and maintenance, health, water supply, solid waste management IFC Advisory Services: advisory support to further improve investment climate and competitiveness in line with country’s EU accession aspirations
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25 WWW.WORLDBANK.ORG.MK
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Background slides IV
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Strong macroeconomic performance 27
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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) 28
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Slide 29 Worsening per capita water availability
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